Tag: Robert Prechter

Amid Stock Market Turmoil, Investors Cling to Hope. Why?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

By: Elliott Wave International

I was watching financial television as the Dow Industrials fell 400-plus points on Sept. 1.

Two market professionals were interviewed: Both said the big decline in recent weeks represented a buying opportunity.

Optimism is so entrenched that even the worst month (August) for the Dow in five years didn't faze them.

Other market observers have also shrugged off the volatility. Here are just a few headlines:

  • 10 oversold stocks ready to pop (CNBC, August 26)
  • Why I'm throwing money at the stock market (Marketwatch, August 26)
  • Why this bull market is not dead (CNBC, August 25)
  • Buy the Dip Becomes Buy the Correction ... (Bloomberg, August 25)
  • Is Stock Market's 'Black Monday' Time to Buy? Some Analysts Think So (NBC News, August 25)
  • Relax, we're about to hit the bottom in stocks (CNBC, August 21)

This is an amazing display of optimism. Yet there is an explanation for this persistent hope in higher stock prices, namely: Continue reading "Amid Stock Market Turmoil, Investors Cling to Hope. Why?" →

Elliott Waves Point To Market Probabilities

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The "personality" of a third wave shows itself in recent market action

By Elliott Wave International

A classic issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist published this exchange:

Q. Do you believe that the Wave Principle provides for an objective form of analysis? ... There are market watchers who say that applying wave theory is very subjective.

Prechter: I always ask, "compared to what?" There is no group more subjective than conventional analysts who look at the same "fundamental" news event ... and come up with countless opposing conclusions. ... The Wave Principle is an excellent basis for assessing probabilities regarding future market movement. Probabilities are by nature different from certainties. Some people misinterpret this aspect of analysis as subjectivity, but all probabilities may be put in order objectively according to the rules and guidelines of wave formation.

So: While no one can "see" the future, you can use the Wave Principle to assess probabilities.

The Wave Principle's basic pattern includes five waves in the direction of the larger trend, followed by three corrective waves. This illustrates the pattern in a bull market: Continue reading "Elliott Waves Point To Market Probabilities" →

Gold Hits a 5-Year Low: How to Time the Next MAJOR Bottom

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By: Elliott Wave International

"In what traders called a 'bear raid,' sellers on Monday dumped an estimated 33 tonnes of gold in just two minutes on exchanges in Shanghai and New York, sending prices on a nearly $50 downward spiral from which they never fully recovered." (Reuters, July 21)

If you live in the U.S., maybe you've noticed lately that "We Buy Gold!" signs are disappearing from sidewalks in front of pawn shops. The signs really began popping up in 2010-2011, when gold prices were climbing to their all-time high of $1900 an ounce. And even after gold tumbled from that peak in September 2011, the signs stayed up for months. Only after gold fell below $1200 an ounce in 2013 -- and price stayed flat for almost two years -- did "We Buy Gold!" signs become scarce.

Someone may chuckle at this brief record of poor timing decisions, and maybe even put it down to the general investment ineptitude of laymen. Certainly, big-name gold market players -- like central banks, for example -- with their access to privileged information and armies of PhD's would not make timing mistakes like that. Right? Continue reading "Gold Hits a 5-Year Low: How to Time the Next MAJOR Bottom" →

8 Unprecedented Extremes Indicate A Stock Market Bubble In Trouble

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By: Elliott Wave International

This article was adapted from Robert Prechter's June 2015 Elliott Wave Theorist. For more charts and detailed commentary, analysis and forecasts from Prechter's latest issues, click here for the extended subscriber version of this report -- it's free.

It is amazing to read assertions from the Fed and others that the stock market is nowhere near being in a bubble. Several aspects of the financial environment are actually so extreme as to be unprecedented. Some indicate a bubble, and others a bubble in trouble.

Below are eight indicators we are watching closely, among others.

1) Record debt in U.S. dollars

Total dollar-denominated debt peaked at $52.7 trillion in early 2009. At the end of Q1 2015, it stands at $59 trillion, an unprecedented amount.

2) Margin Debt at All-Time Highs

Never have more trading-account owners owed so much money, and never have they had such a low level of available funds from which further to draw. Continue reading "8 Unprecedented Extremes Indicate A Stock Market Bubble In Trouble" →

The Disruptive New Science that Shatters Today's Investing Paradigm

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By Elliott Wave International

Editor's note: This video was excerpted from a new multimedia report, "The New Financial Theory that Could Make the Difference in Your Investing Success," from Elliott Wave International, the world's largest financial forecasting firm. Authored by Robert Prechter, the full report demonstrates the failures of the modern investing paradigm and suggests a radically new approach that can make the difference in your investing success. Click here to read and watch the full, four-part multimedia report -- it's free.

The director of the Socionomics Institute, Mark Almand, came up with an analogy to help explain socionomic causality in people. And I'm so jealous that he came up with this idea, because it's so cool. I just love it. So I'm privileged to be able to embellish on it and present it to you now. Continue reading "The Disruptive New Science that Shatters Today's Investing Paradigm" →