Coinbase’s $50 Million Bet on Pro-Crypto Candidates

The 2024 U.S. Presidential election has seen a surge of activity from the crypto industry, with various groups and lobbyists backing candidates who they believe will best represent their interests. So far this year, crypto companies have collectively invested approximately $119 million in political contributions, primarily channeling these funds into crypto-focused super PACs. And that’s just up until June 30.

This level of spending has positioned the crypto industry as the largest corporate political donor in 2024, making up 48% of all corporate donations. In fact, political contributions from crypto firms have skyrocketed by over 3000% this year, making them a dominant force in the election.

According to Public Citizen, no industry “has so wholeheartedly embraced raising as much directly from corporations and openly using that political war chest as a looming threat (or reward) to discipline lawmakers toward adopting an industry’s preferred policies.”

Leading the charge is Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN), America’s largest registered crypto exchange, which has funneled more than $50 million into key races and pro-crypto political action committees (PACs) this election cycle. However, the overall decline in the crypto market has taken a toll on COIN’s performance, with the exchange seeing a 28% drop in average daily trading volumes compared to the previous quarter. This decline is partly due to decreased user engagement and trading activity on the platform.

COIN’s market share fell from 44.6% in the first quarter to 41.2% in the second quarter due to heightened competition from platforms like Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD), which led to users migrating elsewhere. The recent bearish trend in the crypto market is primarily attributed to Vice President Kamala Harris's surge in the polls, which suggests she has a strong chance of winning the presidency.

Critics fear her policies might be even less favorable to the sector than the Biden administration’s. This worry is compounded by the fact that Harris has been relatively quiet on the issue, unlike her opponent, Donald Trump, who has been a vocal supporter of the crypto industry.

The crypto market’s reaction seems heavily influenced by these shifting political dynamics, especially after President Joe Biden’s decision to step back, which has caused unease among crypto investors. Many fear that without Trump’s support for more lenient crypto regulations, Harris might implement stricter measures that could stifle the market’s growth. However, it’s possible that these risks are now being overestimated in the market.

Despite these concerns, the long-term fundamentals of the crypto industry appear strong. Institutional adoption is rising with the introduction of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, and cryptocurrencies are gaining broader acceptance as legitimate investment options. Let’s look at the fundamentals of COIN in more detail.

COIN's total revenue for the second quarter (ended June 30, 2024) amounted to $1.45 billion, up 104.8% year-over-year, while its subscription and services revenue increased 17% sequentially to $599 million. The exchange managed to stay profitable even in a challenging crypto market with a modest net income of $36.15 million, compared to a loss of $97.41 million in the prior year’s quarter.

Previously, Coinbase relied heavily on transaction fees, which fell by 27% due to lower trading volumes. However, its focus on expanding subscription-based revenue through products like blockchain rewards and custodial services has bolstered its income stream. Additionally, the company has delivered positive adjusted EBITDA for six consecutive quarters despite various crypto market conditions.

Coinbase has evolved into an all-weather company with increasingly diversified revenue streams, making it more stable and less dependent on the volatile nature of cryptocurrency markets. This diversification not only helps mitigate the impact of market volatility but also provides resilience if any specific part of the business faces challenges.

Bottom Line

While there’s been a lot of concern about what a Harris presidency might mean for the cryptocurrency market, I believe these fears are overblown. Both the U.S. stock market and crypto have shown resilience under various administrations, and the global nature of crypto makes it unlikely that any one leader could derail its progress.

Additionally, Congress appears to be moving in a more supportive direction for crypto, with bipartisan efforts to establish favorable legal frameworks. For instance, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has expressed optimism about passing crypto-related legislation by the end of the year. This continued legislative push should provide a more stable environment for the crypto industry.

Considering COIN’s ability to adapt to political shifts and the growing investor confidence in crypto, we believe holding on to this stock could be a wise choice. As the crypto market matures, Coinbase is expected to thrive regardless of who occupies the White House, making it a solid long-term investment.

Why CrowdStrike and Fortinet Could Be September's Top Performers

August was a wild ride for the S&P 500, marked by sharp swings that kept investors on their toes. After a sharp 6.1% drop in the first three days, the large-cap benchmark managed to rebound, closing the month with a 2.3% gain. The S&P 500 finished August at 5,648.40, just shy of its record high from mid-July.

Surprisingly, the so-called “Magnificent Seven” stocks that have driven much of the market’s momentum this year, didn’t top the gainers list. Instead, two cybersecurity giants, CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) and Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT), took the spotlight. With their recent performance, there's an expectation that these companies could be September’s top performers. So, what’s fueling their rally?

CrowdStrike’s Rebound from Its Global-Outage-Induced Slump

July 19 was a tough day for CrowdStrike investors. A software update from the company led to a major IT outage that affected some of its biggest clients, including airlines and banks, causing an estimated $5.4 billion in losses. This sparked fears that the brand damage could hurt CrowdStrike's future business.

As a result, CRWD stock took a hit, plunging 36% to a low of $218 by early August. It was the second-worst performer in the S&P 500 during July. However, the company managed to turn things around in August, with its stock climbing 20% for the month to rank as the index’sc.

Investors were relieved to see that the fallout from the outage wasn't as severe as initially feared. When the company reported earnings, it did lower its guidance but reassured investors that customers still wanted to do business with it.

In the second quarter, CRWD generated $963.87 million in revenue, up 32% year-over-year, beating the high end of management's forecast. Perhaps it suggests the global outage in July had a minimal financial impact, especially since it occurred just two weeks before the quarter’s end. However, for fiscal 2025, the company adjusted its full-year revenue forecast slightly downward to a range of $3.89 billion to $3.90 billion, from the previous $3.98 billion to $4.01 billion. Despite this, the new forecast still indicates a healthy 27.5% growth from fiscal 2024, which is encouraging for investors.

On the bottom line, its non-GAAP attributable net income came in at $260.76 million or $1.04 per share, reflecting an increase of 44.9% and 40.5% year-over-year, respectively. Despite the challenges, the company’s long-term outlook remains promising, with a goal to reach $10 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) by fiscal 2031. This ambitious target represents a potential 159% growth over the next six years. Moreover, CrowdStrike's introduction of “commitment packages” for customers is expected to positively impact the net new ARR.

Analysts like Stephen Bersey remain optimistic about CrowdStrike’s future and believe that “the bad news is behind us.” In this view, “CrowdStrike’s native-AI design gives it a structural competitive advantage and places it ahead of peers and leverages AI-driven growth.” With that said, CRWD’s 20% gain in August could be just the start of a continued recovery in September.

Fortinet’s Strong Comeback Reverses Six-Month Downtrend

Fellow cybersecurity company, Fortinet’s impressive rebound in August has been a breath of fresh air for investors who were reeling from its previous billings miss. After a robust earnings report that exceeded expectations, the cybersecurity giant made a strong comeback reversing a six-month downtrend, which sent its stock soaring as much as 28% on that day.

The company's strong market position has translated into an impressive financial performance. In the second quarter of 2024, FTNT’s revenues increased 10.9% year-over-year to $1.43 billion, driven by strong growth in services revenues. Its non-GAAP net income amounted to $439.90 million and $0.57 per share, indicating an increase of 46.4% and 50% year-over-year, respectively.

Building on this quarter’s momentum, Fortinet projects third-quarter revenues between $1.45 billion and $1.51 billion, alongside billings of $1.53 billion to $1.60 billion. Shares of FTNT have already surged more than 30% year to date, catching the attention of both investors and analysts. With the cybersecurity sector booming and Fortinet's continued innovation in security solutions, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on emerging trends.

Fortinet’s strength lies in its robust market position and relentless focus on innovation. The company's FortiOS operating system and Security Fabric architecture provide a seamless and integrated security solution that meets the complex demands of today's digital landscape. Moreover, FTNT’s commitment to innovation is evident in its development of advanced technologies like AI-powered FortiGuard Labs and the GenAI assistant, FortiAI, which streamline threat investigation and network management.

For 2024, FTNT anticipates revenue between $5.8 billion and $5.9 billion, with a non-GAAP operating margin of 30% to 31.5%. Non-GAAP earnings per share are projected to fall between $2.13 and $2.19. As the focus on digital security intensifies, Fortinet’s cutting-edge solutions are well-positioned to maintain its leadership in the industry.

Bottom line

Cyber-attacks are becoming more frequent and severe, with a 30% year-over-year increase in weekly attacks on corporate networks in the second quarter of 2024 and a 25% rise compared to the previous quarter. On average, organizations now face 1,636 attacks per week, highlighting the relentless and sophisticated nature of today's cyber threats.

As businesses increasingly prioritize digital security, the cybersecurity market is projected to soar, reaching $500.70 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 12.3%. This continued expansion in the cybersecurity sector could create a promising environment for CRWD and FTNT, making them attractive additions to your portfolio.

Bitcoin Flirts with $65,000, Consider These Tech Giants with Crypto Exposure

Bitcoin recently touched the $65,000 mark, its highest in almost three weeks, driven by a surge in demand for U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and growing speculation that the Federal Reserve might soon ease its monetary policy. The world’s largest cryptocurrency briefly touched $65,050 during Sunday’s trading session before pulling back to just below $64,000 on Monday. Bitcoin has risen over 10% since the past week, the largest increase since mid-July.

The crypto market took notice after Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at the possibility of lowering benchmark interest rates from their current two-decade highs. This signaled a potentially more favorable liquidity environment for global markets, sparking optimism among investors. Following Powell’s comments, Bitcoin prices soared, and ETFs saw a net inflow of $252 million, the largest in over a month.

Bitcoin’s market cap currently stands at $1.242 trillion, with the cryptocurrency maintaining a 56.3% dominance in the market. While the short-term outlook may seem uncertain, the long-term trend for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market remains positive.

With Bitcoin prices still hovering around $60,000, the broader crypto market remains hot, keeping investor interest high. Buying Bitcoin directly is one option for those looking to ride the crypto wave. But if you’re seeking more conventional routes to gain exposure, tech giants like Block, Inc. (SQ) and PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) offer intriguing opportunities to tap into the cryptocurrency boom without diving headfirst into the volatility of digital currencies.

PayPal’s Digital Wallet Gets a Crypto Upgrade

PayPal is widely recognized as a leader in digital payments, with over 400 million users globally. Whether you’ve used it to shop online or send money to a friend, PayPal has become a trusted name in secure digital transactions. Beyond its core offerings, the company owns Xoom, an international money transfer business, and Venmo, a peer-to-peer money app.

In 2020, PayPal entered the crypto space, allowing users to buy, sell, and hold crypto assets. Initially, customers couldn’t move their holdings off the platform, but that changed as the company evolved its crypto services. Today, users can seamlessly buy, transfer, and sell cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash within and outside of PayPal’s ecosystem. This move has firmly positioned PYPL as a crypto adopter among fintech giants.

While PayPal’s earnings reports don’t always spotlight its crypto activities, the numbers tell an impressive story. In the second quarter, PYPL reported revenue of $7.89 billion, surpassing expectations and reflecting a 9% increase year-over-year. The company’s peer-to-peer payments grew for the first time in three years, with Venmo leading the charge with an 8% increase.

Although PayPal doesn’t disclose specific crypto holdings, its total payment volume grew 11% to $416.8 billion, with non-GAAP net income rising 28% from the prior-year quarter to $1.24 billion. Also, the company’s non-GAAP EPS stood at$1.19, up 36% year-over-year.

Moreover, PayPal’s stablecoin, PYUSD, has gained significant traction, reaching a market capitalization of over $1 billion just a year after its launch. This impressive growth explains why the company isn’t shouting about its crypto ventures from the rooftops; its success in the space speaks for itself.

For investors, there’s more good news. PYPL has increased its planned share buybacks from $5 billion to at least $6 billion this year, a move likely to boost the value of remaining shares. With its massive scale and strong user base, PayPal is well-positioned to bridge the gap between traditional finance and the rapidly evolving crypto ecosystem.

As the company continues to integrate crypto into its offerings, there’s potential for shares to soar even higher. If you’re bullish on the intersection of fintech and crypto, PayPal is definitely a stock to watch.

Block, Inc. (SQ) Shows High Crypto Ambitions

Block, formerly known as Square, has established itself in the fintech space, and its crypto ambitions are front and center. The company, which operates through its Square platform and the peer-to-peer app Cash App, has fully embraced the blockchain revolution.

Cash App is SQ’s direct competitor to Venmo, allowing its 50 million users to engage in various crypto transactions. But Block isn’t stopping there. It’s leveraging its Square platform to accept cryptocurrency payments, offering merchants a seamless way to integrate digital assets into their transactions.

On top of that, the company is driving innovation through its TBD and Spiral divisions, which are focused on creating open-source tools to accelerate blockchain adoption. Even its music streaming service, Tidal, is exploring blockchain for copyright management, potentially transforming how the industry handles royalties.

Despite a 16% decline in stock price year-to-date, driven by concerns over revenue growth and macroeconomic pressures, the company remains focused on long-term crypto initiatives. SQ’s second quarter results were a mix of ups and downs, with revenue of $6.16 billion falling short of the Street’s estimate of $6.30 billion but an adjusted EPS surge of over 132% year-over-year to $0.93, far exceeding analysts’ forecasts.

The company reported a net income of $189.87 million compared to a loss of $105.38 million in the previous year. Block has also been actively returning capital to shareholders, announcing a $3 billion share buyback program and repurchasing over $390 million in the second quarter alone.

While Block’s top line has been inconsistent, its strong financial footing and deep involvement in Bitcoin initiatives make it a compelling option for long-term investors. If you believe in the growth of crypto, Block offers a unique and multifaceted exposure that few other stocks can match.

China's Naval Expansion: Why Defense Stocks Like NOC & LMT Are Poised for Growth

In the first half of 2024, China's shipbuilding industry secured nearly 75% of new global orders, demonstrating the nation's expanding manufacturing power. Ship completions surged by 18.4% year-over-year to 25.02 million deadweight tons (dwt), which represents 55% of the global total during this period. Moreover, the industry's order backlogs increased by 38.6% to 171.55 million dwt. China’s dominance is no fluke, the country leads in 14 out of 18 major ship types for new orders.

But what’s driving this rapid ascent? It’s a mix of cutting-edge technology, surging global demand, and the unmatched efficiency of Chinese shipyards. By adopting advanced construction techniques and digital tools, China has managed to build ships faster and better, which has translated into booming profits. In fact, the industry’s profits for the first five months of 2024 came in at 16 billion yuan ($2.24 billion), up 187.5% year-over-year.

China's defense industry is rapidly advancing, producing increasingly larger and more capable warships at an impressive pace. For instance, the construction of the Yulan-class landing helicopter assault (LHA) ship, also known as the Type 076, at the Changxing Island Shipbuilding Base. This vessel is set to be a game-changer, poised to become the largest amphibious assault ship in the world.

Satellite images from July 4 show the vessel's flight deck spans over 13,500 square meters, which is nearly the size of three American football fields. That’s significantly larger than the U.S. America-class LHAs and Japan’s Izumo-class carriers and much bigger than its Chinese predecessor, the Type 075.

The Type 076 isn’t just about size; it’s about capability. With room for dozens of aircraft, drones, and amphibious landing craft, plus accommodations for over 1,000 marines, this ship is set to revolutionize the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) power projection. Its expansive flight deck and roomy internal hangar will offer enhanced capacity and flexibility, making it a formidable addition to China’s naval arsenal.

Images also reveal that the drydock where the new 076 class is being constructed opened only in October as part of a new port expansion. This rapid production is giving Beijing a significant edge, with the potential to outpace its rivals like the United States.

Since 2019, China has launched four Type 075 vessels, with two now combat-ready and four more on order. Although the U.S. Navy leads in total warship tonnage, China has surpassed the U.S. in the number of warships over 1,000 tons, and in combat logistics and support vessels.

The real worry for U.S. officials is China's shipbuilding capacity. According to U.S. Naval Intelligence, China’s shipbuilding capacity is now 632 times greater than the U.S., supported by a vast network of efficient shipyards.

In the past decade, China has launched 23 destroyers and eight guided-missile cruisers, while the U.S. has launched only 11 destroyers and none of the cruisers. This booming production capability, backed by a robust civilian shipbuilding industry, is raising serious concerns in Washington.

As nations respond to China’s expanding naval prowess, there is likely to be increased demand for advanced defense technologies and military solutions. This heightened demand could drive growth in defense stocks, reflecting the broader trends in global military strategy and procurement.

Therefore, investors and defense analysts are turning their attention to how companies like Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) and Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) are positioned to capitalize on these developments. With that in mind, let’s dig deeper into the fundamental strength of the featured stocks in detail.

Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)

Security and aerospace company LMT focuses on research, design, development, manufacture, integration, and sustainment of advanced technology systems, products, and services. It operates through four segments: Aeronautics; Missiles and Fire Control; Rotary and Mission Systems; and Space.

LMT’s net sales increased 8.6% year-over-year to $18.12 billion in the fiscal 2024 second quarter (ended June 30). Its consolidated operating profit grew marginally from the year-ago value to $2.04 billion, while its non-GAAP net earnings amounted to $1.64 billion in the same period. Also, the company’s EPS came in at $6.65, up 3.3% year-over-year.

While analysts predict a slight 4.6% drop in EPS for the year ending December 2024, its revenue is expected to grow by 5.5% year-over-year to $71.25 billion. For fiscal 2025, forecasts suggest revenue and EPS will hit $74.16 billion and $28.01, respectively.

Regarding rewarding shareholders, Lockheed Martin offers a stable dividend with a four-year average yield of 2.66% and a payout ratio of 44.3%. LMT’s current annual dividend of $12.60 translates to a 2.26% yield at the prevailing share price. Moreover, the company has increased its dividend payouts at a CAGR of 6.9% over the past three years.

In terms of price performance, the stock has gained nearly 30% over the past six months. As defense budgets rise globally, driven by geopolitical tensions, Lockheed Martin is well-positioned to benefit and deliver stable returns to your portfolio.

Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)

NOC operates as a global aerospace and defense technology company through four segments: Aeronautics Systems; Defense Systems; Mission Systems; and Space Systems. The company leads in satellite manufacturing and space technology, contributing to missions like NASA’s Artemis program.

Recently, the company declared a quarterly dividend of $2.06 per share on the common stock, in consistent with its 10% increase announced on May 14. This dividend is payable to its shareholders on September 18, 2024. With a forward annual dividend of $8.24 per share and a yield of 1.62%, Northrop not only rewards shareholders but also boasts 21 years of consecutive dividend growth.

Financially, NOC is on a solid footing. In the second quarter (ended June 30, 2024), its total sales increased 6.7% year-over-year to $10.22 billion, while its total operating income rose 12.7% from the year-ago value to $1.09 billion. Net earnings for the quarter came in at $940 million and $6.36 per share, reflecting an increase of 15.8% and 19.1% from the same period last year, respectively. Also, its free cash flow improved by 79.7% from the prior-year quarter to $1.10 billion.

Street expects NOC’s revenue to increase 5.2% year-over-year in the current year (ending December 2024) to $41.34 billion, while its EPS is expected to grow by 8.2% from the prior year to $25.20 in the same period. For the fiscal year 2025, its revenue and EPS are expected to reach $42.92 billion and $27.69, registering an increase of 3.8% and 9.8%, respectively.

Moreover, NOC’s shares have gained more than 16% over the past month and nearly 9% year-to-date, making it a compelling option in a rapidly evolving defense landscape.

eBay’s Revenue Boost: Will Dropping AmEx Lead to Lower Costs & Higher Margins?

Imagine logging into eBay, excited to use your American Express card to grab that coveted item, only to find out eBay no longer accepts AmEx. This scenario became a reality on August 17, 2024, when eBay Inc. (EBAY) officially stopped accepting American Express Company’s (AXP) credit cards due to what they call “unacceptably high” processing fees.

eBay made this move after months of criticism over rising credit card transaction fees. According to eBay, despite technological advancements and increased investment in fraud protection, fees for processing transactions have only increased. They argue that this trend is due to a lack of competition among credit card issuers, which keeps costs high. This decision was made public over two months ago, giving users time to prepare for the switch.

With $10.11 billion in revenue last year, EBAY is pushing for stricter regulations to encourage competition and “help reduce transaction processing costs for merchants and their customers.” Credit card processing, or swipe fees, are what businesses pay every time a customer uses a card. These fees can range from just over 2% of each transaction to as high as 4% for premium cards. These fees are among the highest operating costs for businesses, often leading to higher consumer prices and reduced sales.

American Express is known for its high fees, which is why eBay decided to cut ties. EBAY’s decision came after negotiations between the two companies broke down. Despite the move, AXP downplayed the impact, stating that “eBay represents less than 0.2%” of its total network volume. They expressed disappointment but insisted that eBay’s decision limits customer payment options and “take away the service, security, and rewards that customers value when paying with American Express.”.

Is It a Big Hit to Either Company?

Surprisingly, while EBAY and AXP part ways, Amex isn’t too worried. The company’s fiscal 2024 first quarter report revealed that over 60% of new account openings came from Millennials and Gen Z, two demographics they’re keen to keep growing. But the big question is, are these youngsters spending their money on eBay?

Last month, eBay adjusted its sales forecast to $2.50-$2.56 billion, compared to $2.57 billion recorded in the second quarter (ended June 30, 2024), hinting that sales might be slipping. However, the company’s stock has been on an upward trend this year. EBAY shares have gained more than 35% year-to-date and nearly 12% over the past three months.

According to eBay, most customers are “willing to use alternative payment options,” like Visa, Mastercard, and Discover. So, while ditching Amex might be inconvenient for some, most eBay shoppers are likely to switch to another payment method without much fuss.

Despite inconsistent consumer spending, the company managed to squeeze out profits with a 1.2% year-over-year increase in its net revenue of $2.57 billion. It wasn’t a huge leap, but it was enough to exceed analyst expectations of $2.53 billion. Its gross merchandise volume (GMV) also inched up by just 1% from the prior year to $18.42 billion. In the earnings release, eBay cited “an uneven discretionary demand environment in our major markets” as a reason for the sluggish figures.

On the bottom line, EBAY reported a non-GAAP net income of $602 million and $1.18 per share, up 8.5% and 14.6% year-over-year, respectively. It also surpassed the consensus EPS estimate of $1.12 per share, which is impressive.

Analysts seem to expect this trend of modest revenue growth and stronger earnings to continue. They anticipate EBAY’s full-year revenue to increase by just 1.9% year-over-year to $10.31 billion. However, its earnings per share is forecasted to grow by 13.5% this year to $4.81 and 7% in 2025 to $5.14.

Could This Be a Tipping Point for Amex?

Amex has been riding high in 2024, but eBay’s decision to cut ties with the credit card giant could be a sign of a broader shift. That raises the question: Will other companies follow suit, or is this just a one-time loss?

For large retailers, credit card processing fees are significant, typically ranging from 1.5% to 3.5% per transaction. These fees quickly add up, turning into billions in profit for credit card companies each year. Amex, however, tends to charge about 1% more per transaction compared to competitors like Visa, Mastercard, or Discover. Because of this, some local businesses and select merchants have stopped accepting Amex cards altogether. That’s a bummer for loyal Amex users.

Shares of AXP took a hit recently after Bank of America Securities analysts raised concerns that the stock might be overvalued, with limited room for further growth. The investment firm downgraded Amex from a “Buy” to a “Neutral” rating, maintaining a price target of $263 per share, signaling caution about the company’s future potential.

eBay’s Cost-Saving Strategy in a Volatile Market

As the Federal Reserve considers lowering interchange fees, eBay’s decision to drop American Express highlights a broader effort to reduce costs amid economic uncertainties. With inconsistent consumer spending and inflationary pressures, particularly in markets like the U.K. and Germany, eBay is strategically reducing costs to bolster profitability.

By cutting high transaction fees, eBay could reduce overhead and better position itself in the fiercely competitive eCommerce market. While the initial reaction might include some pushback from loyal Amex users, the long-term impact on EBAY’s marketplace could be decidedly positive. As the payments landscape continues to evolve, this decision may signal the start of broader changes designed to create a more competitive, cost-effective, and user-friendly environment for both consumers and merchants.