Tag: Silver (FOREX:XAGUSDO)

If You Want To Know What's Going On In The Markets...

Posted on by The INO.com Team

If you want to know what's going on in the markets, just look in the mirror. In one moment, investors are bullish and the next moment, very bearish. It just shows you the skittish nature of the market that we are in.

How do you feel about the market? Leave a comment below and tell us how feel.

Despite last week's wild gyrations, the markets closed lower for the week. This is the big picture you really want to watch and pay attention to. Looking at the S&P 500, as it represents a broad swath of the markets, this index closed out last week at 1,982.85, down 1.3% for the week. This was the lowest close in this index in over six weeks, not exactly a stellar picture. Again, when you look at the bigger picture, a clearer picture emerges of what's going on.

The same dismal story can be applied to the NASDAQ that closed down 1.44% for the week, closing at 4,513.44. Last week's close represents the lowest close for this index in six weeks, again not a good sign.

The Dow also closed lower for the week but still managed to have its third-highest weekly close in history. This morning the DOW gave its first serious indication that things are beginning to come apart as it joined the same picture as both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500. A weekly Trade Triangle flashed a exit and sideline position for this index. Now, just like the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, the DOW is indicating that you should be out of market at the present time and on the sidelines.

In other markets... Continue reading "If You Want To Know What's Going On In The Markets..." →

Sentiment Shifting for Gold Bugs

Posted on by The INO.com Team

From a post on the HUI at the site last week:

“There are worse things that could happen than filling a gap and scattering the wrong kind of gold bugs back out.  Then it would be up to the longer-term charts to do the heavy lifting if the daily does fulfill this downside potential.”

The gap was filled, the top end of the anticipated support zone was reached and indeed, the wrong [i.e. momentum players] kind of gold bugs are scattering back out.  The hard sell down on Thursday was very likely due in large part to the selling by traders with a fetish about gold as a geopolitical or terror hedge.

We should continue to tune out these people and while we are at it, tune out the ‘Indian wedding season’ and ‘China demand’ pumpers in favor of real fundamentals like gold’s relationship to commodities and the stock market, the Banking sector’s relationship to the broad market, Junk Bond to Quality credit spreads and US Treasury bond yield relationships.

It’s boring stuff compared to all that demand in China, Modi’s pro-gold regime in India and of course how we are all going to go down the drain amidst war, terror and an age of global conflict unless we have a ‘crisis hedge’.  The only terror gold investors should care about is that perpetrated upon paper/digital currencies by global policy makers.

So last week was good in that it blew out those who were hanging on through the 2 month long grind that did indeed turn out to be short-term topping patterns.  I don’t mind telling you that my patience was tested by the bullish spirits, especially on up days with Ukraine in the headlines.  I did not think it would take 2 months to resolve, but every time the sector looked like it would crack, a new geopolitical flashpoint would show up in the mainstream financial media.

That condition is now being closed out.  Taking its place could be a bottom of at least short-term significance (i.e. to a bounce).  We have a fundamental backdrop that is not fully formed and a big picture technical backdrop that has degraded in gold and silver and is not proven in the equities.  So whether we bounce only, go bullish for an extended rally or even bull market, or (and it’s still on the table folks) fail into the ‘final plunge’ scenario, we are dealing in potentials, not confirmed trends.

Moving on let’s check sector sentiment.

st.au.optix

The current hook down in gold’s Optix (Sentimentrader.com’s aggregated Public Opinion data) is correcting recent surges in optimism.  This is coming amidst a small positive trend.  ‘Uh oh, dumb money is getting positive!’ think contrarians anxiously.  But the historical view shows that the Optix rises in the initial stages of a bull market. Continue reading "Sentiment Shifting for Gold Bugs" →

HUI, Gold & Silver; Fun With Monthly Charts

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Outside of the sound practice that is physical gold ownership in a time of monetary gamesmanship, the precious metals sector is all about speculation, at least according to 9 out of 10 chart jockeys and momentum junkies micro managing every short-term twist and turn.

Indeed, NFTRH manages gold, silver and the gold stocks on down to the short-term views as well, but that is only because the long-term views have stated that this is a time to be paying attention.  Do we pay attention because we have waited so long to promote our orthodoxy and finally be right as gold bugs?  No.  We pay attention when a chart tells us to pay attention.

While we manage the shorter-term views (both macro fundamental and technical) rigorously in the weekly report and interim updates, here I’d like to dial out to the big monthly picture with 3 large (click to expand as needed) charts of HUI, Gold and Silver to see their stories, which are the reasons we are managing shorter-term views.

HUI Gold Bugs Index

hui

First HUI monthly reviews the warnings to the analysis from 2012 and 2013.  They were very clear and should have kept people out of much of harm’s way with respect to gold stock speculation. Continue reading "HUI, Gold & Silver; Fun With Monthly Charts" →