Tag: street authority

The Bottom May Be Falling Out -- Here's What To Do

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By: David Sterman of Street Authority

Just a few months ago, all was quiet on the investing front, as most market indices continually broke new all-time highs. But in early August, the quiet was broken by a sudden surge by the dollar against the euro, the yen, Australian dollar and other currencies. At the time, the rallying dollar was merely seen as the beneficiary of a relatively robust U.S. economic growth rate in 2015, at least compared to Europe and Japan.

In hindsight, the currency shifts now appear to be the result of something more concerning: European economic activity has slowed to a crawl, the Chinese government is leaning towards a policy of reform over stimulus -- compounded by brewing political troubles in Hong Kong -- and U.S. investors are finally waking up to the reality that global economic growth will likely be subpar in 2015.

That dim view may also explain why West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil has now slipped below $90 a barrel for the first time in 17 months. Then again, oil prices may be slumping because the dollar is rallying, which always hurts the price of commodities such as oil. Or perhaps it's the fact that too much oil is being produced at a time when global demand is slackening.

In other words, there are now a number of moving parts in play, and the factors behind these recent shifts are likely to persist. How you position your portfolio for the changing market can spell the difference between capital preservation and capital erosion. Continue reading "The Bottom May Be Falling Out -- Here's What To Do" →

The Best Strategy For Reliable Income In A High-Risk Market

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By: Zachary Scheidt of Street Authority

The covered call strategy is a reliable way to generate income in your investment account on a monthly basis. Basically, this investment approach captures income by selling call option contracts, which speculators purchase in hopes that they will generate outsized returns as stock prices advance. By selling call options, we allow these speculators the chance to make large profits, while we collect high-probability income payments.

Here's how the covered call process works: We purchase shares of stock the same way a traditional investor would. We then sell call option contracts against these shares (one for every 100 shares that we own). Selling these contracts obligates us to sell our stock at the option's strike price, provided the market price is above this level before the option expires.

This approach puts a cap on our potential return because regardless of how high the stock trades, we will still be obligated to sell at the strike price. However, since we are receiving a payment from selling the call contract, known as a premium, this income is very reliable and gives us a much higher probability of a positive return on our investment. So the covered call approach sacrifices the potential for a very high return in exchange for a more stable, reliable income stream.

Choosing Which Call Option Contract to Use

Option contracts are available on a monthly (and in many cases, weekly) basis, giving us more choices in terms of which contracts we want to sell. Traditional call option contracts expire on the Saturday after the third Friday of each month.

When implementing a covered call trade in our account, we must choose an expiration date. Typically, the more time left until expiration, the higher the price will be for the call option. This is because the contract is more attractive to buyers, because a longer time horizon allows the stock more time to trade higher, giving the owner a greater chance to profit. From our perspective as call sellers, a higher price means that we receive more income from selling the contract. Continue reading "The Best Strategy For Reliable Income In A High-Risk Market" →

Why There's Upside To Silver's Four-Year Lows

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By: David Sterman of Street Authority

Even as investors were re-embracing stocks in 2010 and 2011, they scored really big gains with one of the hottest commodities in the world: Silver.

The precious metal soared in price from under $20 in August 2010 to nearly $50 an ounce by the next spring. In the hindsight, the silver spike was a classic bubble, fueled by inflation concerns that simply never materialized.

Though few people could have guessed that silver would be capable of a 150% nine-month gain, few also would have predicted that the eventual slump in silver would be so extended. Silver prices fell back below $30 an ounce by the start of 2013, and they've been in freefall ever since. A snapback to 2011 peaks is out of the cards.

You can get a sense of just how painful the silver slump has been by glancing at the performance of key exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The leveraged (2-times and 3-times) funds have been among the market's worst performers.

And when it comes to the silver producers themselves, it appears as if sentiment has utterly collapsed. In recent weeks, industry share prices have slumped another 20%-to-30%. In contrast, the pullback in gold prices and shares of gold miners has not been nearly as severe. Continue reading "Why There's Upside To Silver's Four-Year Lows" →

Serious Headwinds May Put A Damper On The Market

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By: John Kosar of Street Authority

All major U.S. stock indices posted gains last week except for the Russell 2000, which lost 1.2% and is also the only major index in negative territory for 2014. Despite the weakness in small caps, the broader market, as measured by the SP 500, has managed to rack up a decent 8.9% gain this year, largely on the back of technology issues.

The Nasdaq 100 is up 14.2% year to date. However, as I have been stating in this space for some time, if and when technology stocks stop leading, the broader market may be in for some significant problems over the near term.

Dow Makes New High, but Problems Persist

In last week's Market Outlook, I warned that the early September new closing high in the Dow Jones Transportation Average had not yet been corroborated by a new closing high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which, according to Dow Theory, was a red flag for the overall market.

That situation was averted last week by a new high in the industrials, clearing the way for more near-term strength in both indices.

But it may be too early to celebrate just yet, as potential problems continue to exist. Continue reading "Serious Headwinds May Put A Damper On The Market" →

Winter is Coming - Here's My Favorite Seasonal Trade

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By: Jared Levy of Street Authority

Over the years, I've been successful trading weather patterns as they relate to commodities such as crude oil, gasoline and grains. As unpredictable as the weather can seem, there are patterns, and traders who get ahead of the crowd can exploit them for reliable profits.

Today, I'm going to share one of my favorite seasonal trades with you, and that is the tendency for natural gas prices to rise in the winter months as the colder weather spurs demand for use in home heating.

Source: U.S. Energy Administration

For seven of the past 10 years, the price of natural gas has risen between the beginning of September and the end February, with an average gain of 17.6%. Continue reading "Winter is Coming - Here's My Favorite Seasonal Trade" →