Tag: the energy report

Natural Gas Has Sex Appeal: Andrew Coleman

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The Energy Report: In your last interview, you talked about raising price targets on energy sectors and individual stocks with promising reserves and production growth. Is that still your view, or have circumstances changed?

Andrew Coleman: What we're more worried about at this point is that the U.S. economy has been slower to recover than we expected. Meanwhile, the situation in Europe is getting worse and China's growth is slowing. To help us evaluate oil and gas markets in this context, our team here at Raymond James put together a bottom-up supply model looking at the oil shales, which was a follow-up to work the team had done on gas shales a couple of years earlier.

"The forward curve on gas is getting better."

The gas outlook has remained cautious, although not nearly as bearish as it was a couple of years ago. We have, however, become much more nervous on the short-term outlook for oil. We have a $65 per barrel (bbl) forecast for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and an $80/bbl forecast for Brent for 2013. The forward curve on gas is getting better, and certainly 2013 gas is over $4 per thousand cubic feet (mcf) right now. Oil is our big concern and back in June we downgraded virtually every name that we follow in the EP space to the point where we now have no strong buys in our coverage group. Continue reading "Natural Gas Has Sex Appeal: Andrew Coleman" →

Bruno del Ama: Do ETFs Offer Value for MLPs?

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The Energy Report: Bruno, since Global X Funds brought its first exchange-traded fund (ETF) to market in 2009, you have added another 30, the latest being the Global X MLP ETF (MLPA:NYSE). What is the appetite among investors for ETFs, and specifically those featuring master limited partnerships (MLPs)?

Bruno del Ama: Investors continue to migrate to the ETF asset class, and we are big fans of energy MLPs. Energy transportation is an infrastructure play with a couple of benefits. First, it provides significant diversification to complement investors' portfolios; second, it provides income in a low-interest rate environment.

ETFs are an innovation in the MLP asset class. We at Global X focus on asset classes where we are the first provider of a particular ETF. In our last interview, for example, we talked about our uranium ETF, which provides focused exposure to that market in a way that did not exist before. Innovation is in our DNA. Continue reading "Bruno del Ama: Do ETFs Offer Value for MLPs?" →

Deepwater Service Stocks Are Tapping the Supercycle Sweet Spot: Elliott Gue

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The Energy Report: A lot has happened in the energy markets since your last interview. What are the most significant changes in the space?

Elliott Gue: The Gulf oil spill in May 2010 and the Fukushima event in March 2011 were the two most pivotal events of the past two years. The repercussions of the Gulf spill extended for over a year. Fukushima dramatically changed the policy toward nuclear energy in Japan and in Germany and caused a surge in global natural gas prices due to increased Japanese demand, Japan having suddenly lost about 30% of its power. Japan has since built new natural gas plants, which are the only plants that can be brought onstream very quickly to generate large amounts of power. Continue reading "Deepwater Service Stocks Are Tapping the Supercycle Sweet Spot: Elliott Gue" →

Why My Portfolio Gained 30% This Year: John Stephenson

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The Energy Report: John, In your last interview, you were pretty optimistic about much higher oil prices. What can you attribute the oil market's recent weakness to? Did everyone just get spooked?

John Stephenson: There was a rumor that the U.S. was going to release strategic petroleum reserves, which would lower prices at the pump and also lower prices in the world market. It would be a temporary fix, because the actual total volume of the reserve is only about a month's worth of U.S. consumption. Nonetheless, it would definitely lower prices. There's some waning of geopolitical risk, and some of that risk rhetoric was positive for oil prices.

The European ban on importing Iranian oil has had a pretty dramatic impact on tightening supply. It's roughly equivalent to when Libya was offline because of its revolution. That same level of production, about 1.5 million barrels (MMbbl) is off the global market now, creating a fairly tight supply picture. Then there is the Israel/Iran nuclear confrontation, which has also driven oil prices higher. Realistically, there's very strong support for oil prices in the $9095 per barrel (bbl) range because one of the big sources of demand for oil has actually turned out to be the Middle East itself, where the producers are becoming their own best customers. They're like drug dealers getting hooked on their own supply, and their consumption growth rates are double those of China. Continue reading "Why My Portfolio Gained 30% This Year: John Stephenson" →

The Case of the Missing 200 Million Barrels of Oil: Marshall Adkins

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Supply threats in the Middle East have governments around the world hoarding oil, largely in secret. But it didn't get past Raymond James Director for Energy Research Marshall Adkins, who noticed the 200 million-barrel discrepancy between what was pumped and reported global oil reserves. Where did the missing oil go, and why don't prices reflect this substantial surplus? More importantly, what happens once the reality of an oversupply sets in?—A tough six months, Adkins expects. Read on to find out where you can hide when prices plummet.

The Energy Report: You've written a provocative research report titled "Hello, We'd Like to Report a Missing 200 Million Barrels of Crude." It argues that the global oil inventory should have grown by over 200 million barrels (200 MMbbl) during the first six months of 2012. Where did this oil go? And a better question is, why hasn't this surplus shown up in pricing?

Marshall Adkins: When the U.S., the European Union and the United Nations imposed sanctions against Iran, the world responded by putting oil into storage. China rapidly began filling its strategic petroleum reserves. Saudi Arabia topped off its surface reserves. Iran put oil in the floating tankers. Continue reading "The Case of the Missing 200 Million Barrels of Oil: Marshall Adkins" →