Tag: The Federal Reserve

What Are You Doing To Prepare For 2015?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

One of the things I've always done over the years is close out all my accounts just before the middle of December. Looking back on the year, I have to say it's been a good year and I hope 2014 was a good year for you too.

This is perhaps the most dangerous time of the year when the markets are very thin and volatile. They can swing dramatically one way or the other and make very little sense. It's not that way every year, but trading does drop off dramatically and liquidity becomes a problem, even with big stocks.

If you haven't made your money for the year by the middle of December, you're not going to make it in the last two weeks of December. I can practically guarantee that.

So here's what I do, I look forward to enjoying the holidays with my family and I look forward to 2015 and get mentally prepared for the markets. There is absolutely zero doubt in my mind that there will be some huge moves next year. You only need to catch one of these giant moves to make your year. I happen to think that next year will be golden - that is when the new bull market starts in gold (FOREX:XAUUSDO). Now remember, that is what I think, but I'm going to have to have the Trade Triangles back those thoughts with solid technical evidence that gold is going higher. Continue reading "What Are You Doing To Prepare For 2015?" →

It’s Time To End "Considerable Time" Talk

Posted on by George Yacik

George Yacik - INO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates


What do you think will happen first: The Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates, or the Cubs win the World Series for the first time since 1908?

Richard Lehmann, writing in his Fixed–Income Watch column in the recent issue of Forbes magazine, says the odds are about the same. Lehmann expects the Fed to keep short-term rates pretty much where they are – i.e. at or near zero – for some time to come. "The Fed talks a good line and promises to act responsibly once employment and the economy improve or the threat of deflation disappears," he writes. "But that's kind of like waiting for the Chicago Cubs to win the World Series again."

Actually though, the chances of the Cubs winning the World Series soon don't look so far-fetched. Now under Theo Epstein, the principal architect of the 2004 World Champion Red Sox that broke the 86-year old Curse of the Bambino, the Cubs have put together a solid team of talented young players and added former Tampa Bay Rays manager, Joe Madden, as their skipper during the off-season. Now they've also reportedly signed free agent pitcher, Jon Lester. Las Vegas currently has the Cubs at about 14 to 1 odds to win the 2015 Series, one of the top eight or so teams in baseball.

Can we say the same thing about the Fed raising rates soon?
Continue reading "It’s Time To End "Considerable Time" Talk" →

Economy Post-'Jobs’ Report; Real or Memorex?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Now it gets interesting because early in the bailout process the Fed talked about achieving certain employment milestones before hiking interest rates.  Here we are at the 10th consecutive month with 200,000+ job gains (321,000 in November) and the jobless rate down to 5.8% and still there is a question on when or whether ZIRP will be withdrawn?

Well I am a visual learner so I for one can never get enough pictures to inform my thinking.  Pardon the redundancy in this chart’s frequent appearances in NFTRH…

sp500
Source: SlopeCharts

The rectangular red box is zero interest rate policy (ZIRP), which is 6 years old this month.  If we play it straight we would be expected to believe what the mainstream believes, that the “Great Recession” is a thing of the past and that something built of abnormal policy can proceed per normal metrics and assumptions when abnormal policy is removed.  I don’t buy it. Continue reading "Economy Post-'Jobs’ Report; Real or Memorex?" →

How To Avoid The Mistake Most Investors Are Making

Posted on by admin

By: Brad Briggs of Street Authority

It finally ended...

The Federal Reserve recently announced that it would end its third (and possibly final) round of quantitative easing (QE).

This brings to close the $1.7 trillion that was pumped into the economy in this round alone. October marked the last month of the $15 billion in monthly bond purchases -- down from $85 billion when QE3 started in 2012 -- and ends the nearly six-year bond purchasing program.

You can see what the program has done to the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve:

The central bank's bond purchasing program has sent the stock market soaring... and hopefully you've been able to capitalize on this tremendous bull market. Continue reading "How To Avoid The Mistake Most Investors Are Making" →

Goldzilla

Posted on by The INO.com Team

"History shows again and again how nature points out the folly of man" – Blue Oyster Cult, Godzilla

I would have written off the gold sector long ago in its ongoing bear market had I thought for one moment that gold's utility as insurance against the acts of monetary madmen/women in high places had been compromised in any way. On the contrary, the monetary metal is simply having its price marked down in a bear market while its value, especially given its current price and all that has gone on in the financial system over the last 3 years remains just fine.

Indeed gold, an element dug out of the ground for centuries, once as money and now as a marker to sound money systems will one day be shown to be a calm oasis from the fallout to global monetary shenanigans currently ongoing. At least it would be an oasis to those who have valued it as such. It is going to feel like a giant dinosaur (minus the kitsch value) ripping through a city built on paper to the multitudes who have taken the bait on the current too big to fail global inflationary operations. They will fail. Timing is the only question. Continue reading "Goldzilla" →