{"id":16417,"date":"2012-10-05T10:45:54","date_gmt":"2012-10-05T14:45:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=16417"},"modified":"2012-10-05T10:45:54","modified_gmt":"2012-10-05T14:45:54","slug":"systemic-stress-is-building-and-its-bullish-for-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2012\/10\/systemic-stress-is-building-and-its-bullish-for-now\/","title":{"rendered":"Systemic Stress is Building, and it\u2019s Bullish (for now)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Using the spread between 30 year and 2 year US Treasury yields, we can gauge when policy makers are in control of market participants\u2019 perceptions and when they are losing control to the free market\u2019s will.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/4758.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"990\" height=\"438\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Operation Twist was announced in September of 2011 in the aftermath of the first phase of the Euro crisis as the yield curve had exploded higher, taking the monetary stress barometer, gold, with it.\u00a0 Over bought on unbridled momentum, gold entered an extended correction in line with the yield curve, which complied with policy makers\u2019 goal of calming down the system.\u00a0 As shown many times in the past, gold and the 30-2 yield curve generally travel together.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>By the time Op Twist\u2019s extension was announced in June, an already mature gold correction and an in-line yield curve unsurprisingly did not respond to the manipulators\u2019 directive.\u00a0 The operation whereby the Federal Reserve would buy up long-term bonds and sanitize the process by selling off short-term ones was exposed as the macro parlor trick that it is. It resulted in little more than a deflationary pretense against which inflationary policy could be promoted anew.<\/p>\n<p>In hindsight, the free market knew that a bald faced and more honest inflation regimen would be engaged by policy makers desperate to keep power, as the yield curve shook off the Twist manipulation and looked ahead to full-on inflation or \u2018i2k12\u2032 (Inflationary 2012) as NFTRH coined it early in the year.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/4759.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"990\" height=\"438\" \/><\/p>\n<p>A rising yield curve is all about the promotion of inflation.\u00a0 The weekly view of the 30\/2 yield curve and gold shows the Greenspan era inflationary regime, which was promoted against the bear market early last decade.\u00a0 This was the kickoff to what NFTRH terms the age of \u2018Inflation onDemand\u2019.<\/p>\n<p>Greenie\u2019s version of ZIRP resulted in a credit bubble and mal-investment far and wide.\u00a0 When he tried to take it back by raising short-term interest rates, the yield curve complied but a system already too far out on the leveraged limb eventually began to fall apart.\u00a0 The system was beyond normal austere policy making.\u00a0 To put it in non-technical terms, FrankenMarket needed juice and it needed it fast.<\/p>\n<p>Enter the man for the job, Greenspan lackie Ben Bernanke, the new Federal Reserve chief, fresh with monetary and economic management ideas straight out of academia.\u00a0 Enter a whole new level of management where an epic macro game\u00a0 of \u2018all or nothing\u2019 came into play.<\/p>\n<p>As US financial institutions began to fail, the curve began to rise as the Fed cut rates as fast as it could.\u00a0 Inflation was again being promoted, but the act of inflating did not stop the oncoming liquidation of Q4, 2008.\u00a0 The curve declined from the 2008 stress spike as it usually does during deflationary liquidations.\u00a0 These periods of deflationary pressure serve to build up the next stress spike in the curve.<\/p>\n<p>As QE1 eventually took hold, the curve rose into the events surrounding the 2010 \u2018Flash Crash\u2019, at which point QE2 was promoted.\u00a0 This launched an intense phase of inflationary cost pressures that culminated in the curve topping out in late 2010, with commodities following suit in early 2011.\u00a0 This resulted in the deflationary pressures that held sway for the balance of 2011 before eventually giving way to a new inflationary regime that was born in the summer of 2012.\u00a0 Enter NFTRH\u2019s long-awaited i2k12.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/4760.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"990\" height=\"438\" \/><\/p>\n<p>But the nominal 30 year bond yield has been declining since\u2026 forever; deflation is the play!<\/p>\n<p>No sir, a wellspring of goodwill was passed on to Alan Greenspan by Paul Volcker in the mid-80\u2032s and Sir Alan borrowed against this goodwill for all it was worth until finally, the system could not take it anymore.\u00a0 The great bull market of 1980 to 2000 expired and the age of Inflation onDemand began.\u00a0 The monetary metal was rightly contained until the current era where inflationary policy is used ever more desperately to battle the next oncoming liquidation.<\/p>\n<p>There are no bond vigilantes anymore.\u00a0 There is just a massive market in US Treasury bonds being worked over by really smart people employing really dangerous operations.\u00a0 The middle chart above shows a curve that is ready to continue upward into building inflationary stress.\u00a0 The last chart shows that gold has not been deterred despite what is made to appear to be an ongoing deflationary continuum.<\/p>\n<p>The current inflation could run until the curve reaches new highs and\/or the Continuum paints another red arrow at the downtrend line.\u00a0 Or it could just run until the system ends; it\u2019s a which ever comes first type of scenario.\u00a0 That\u2019s our system folks; very high risk and high reward.\u00a0 But it is terminal.\u00a0 Hence the case for gold.\u00a0 The barbarous relic would help people bridge the gap between the dying system and the one that comes next.\u00a0 That is why it is not taking the bait anymore on the periodic liquidations.<\/p>\n<p>Be safe first\u2026 speculate second.\u00a0 Safety means eliminate debt and own things of value.\u00a0 I fully believe that happiness can be achieved in these painful times.\u00a0 But you have got to take control and not take the mainstream media bromides to heart.\u00a0 I am not sure where this post came from or even where it went to.\u00a0 But there it is anyway.\u00a0 A great weekend to you.<\/p>\n<div>Regards,<\/div>\n<div>Gary Tanashian<\/div>\n<div><a href=\"http:\/\/www.biiwii.com\">http:\/\/www.biiwii.com<\/a><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>NFTRH Letter: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.biiwii.com\/NFTRH\/subscribe.htm\">http:\/\/www.biiwii.com\/NFTRH\/subscribe.htm<\/a><\/div>\n<div>Free eLetter:\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.biiwii.com\/NFTRH\/eletter.htm\">http:\/\/www.biiwii.com\/NFTRH\/eletter.htm<\/a><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>Twitter @BiiwiiNFTRH<\/div>\n<div>email: <a href=\"mailto:**@bi****.com\" data-original-string=\"JTDqC5yyVjtBNfo0rQr\/Fg==\" title=\"This contact has been encoded by Anti-Spam by CleanTalk. 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To finish the decoding make sure that JavaScript is enabled in your browser.\"><br \/>\n        <span class=\"apbct-ee-blur-group\"><br \/>\n            <span class=\"apbct-ee-blur_email-text\">**@bi****.com<\/span><br \/>\n            <span class=\"apbct-ee-static-blur\"><br \/>\n                <span class=\"apbct-ee-blur apbct-ee-blur_rectangle-init\"><\/span><br \/>\n                <span class=\"apbct-ee-blur apbct-ee-blur_rectangle-soft\"><\/span><br \/>\n                <span class=\"apbct-ee-blur apbct-ee-blur_rectangle-hard\"><\/span><br \/>\n            <\/span><br \/>\n            <span class=\"apbct-ee-animate-blur\"><br \/>\n                <span class=\"apbct-ee-blur apbct-ee-blur_rectangle-init apbct-ee-blur_animate-init\"><\/span><br \/>\n                <span class=\"apbct-ee-blur apbct-ee-blur_rectangle-soft apbct-ee-blur_animate-soft \"><\/span><br \/>\n                <span class=\"apbct-ee-blur apbct-ee-blur_rectangle-hard apbct-ee-blur_animate-hard\"><\/span><br \/>\n            <\/span><br \/>\n        <\/span><br \/>\n<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on the_content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Using the spread between 30 year and 2 year US Treasury yields, we can gauge when policy makers are in control of market participants\u2019 perceptions and when they are losing control to the free market\u2019s will. Operation Twist was announced in September of 2011 in the aftermath of the first phase of the Euro crisis [&hellip;]<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":41,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[4272,1840,4273,7948],"class_list":["post-16417","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general","tag-biiwii-blogspot-com","tag-biiwiicom","tag-gary-tanashian","tag-guest-bloggers"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.4 (Yoast SEO v23.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Systemic Stress is Building, and it\u2019s Bullish (for now) - INO.com Trader&#039;s Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2012\/10\/systemic-stress-is-building-and-its-bullish-for-now\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Systemic Stress is Building, and it\u2019s Bullish (for now) - INO.com Trader&#039;s Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Using the spread between 30 year and 2 year US Treasury yields, we can gauge when policy makers are in control of market participants\u2019 perceptions and when they are losing control to the free market\u2019s will. 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