{"id":1922,"date":"2010-03-04T01:00:37","date_gmt":"2010-03-04T05:00:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/club.ino.com:80\/trading\/?p=1922"},"modified":"2010-04-26T15:47:06","modified_gmt":"2010-04-26T19:47:06","slug":"2010-commodities-forecast-an-interview-with-james-mound","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2010\/03\/2010-commodities-forecast-an-interview-with-james-mound\/","title":{"rendered":"2010 Commodities Forecast, an Interview with James Mound"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"Recently we got the opportunity to sit down with Mr. James Mound, the head analyst for Mound Trade Signals and author of the book 7 Secrets Every Commodity Trader Needs to Know<\/em>, for a one-on-one interview.\u00a0 Mr. Mound\u2019s 2010 Mega Commodities Forecast<\/a> was released on January 5th and with it came scores of comments about his dramatic market predictions.\u00a0 In this interview we will look to ask the pressing questions about Mr. Mound and his forecasts. Please enjoy, feel free to comment, and check out his 2010 Mega Commodities Forecast<\/a> here.<\/p>\n

====================================================================
\nTrader's Blog:<\/strong> James, thanks for sitting down with me today, and if you don't mind I'd like to jump right in. On January 5th, in your 2010 Commodities Forecast, you said:
\n\u201cI see a lot of signals pointing at a few weeks of bullish commodities here in the first month or so of the year\u2026. This could be enough to get oil on a two to three week bull run to set the high for the year\u2026. This is when I recommend jumping short.<\/em>\u201d<\/p>\n

What made you call the top with such specific timing and where is it going from here?<\/p>\n

James Mound, Mound Trade Signals<\/strong>: First, thanks for having me here today. The underlying factor in oil prices heading into the beginning of 2010 was the surprising cold weather.\u00a0 A big misunderstanding amongst a number of traders is that big snow storms should cause a price spike based on a short term increase in demand.\u00a0 In my opinion, this likely causes a drop in demand as standard modes of transportation like air and land travel can come to a virtual stop and cause usage to plunge.\u00a0 The main weather issue during the winter is sustained lower than average temperatures, and in January this hit hard both in northern and southern states as well as parts of Europe and China.\u00a0 Price support was apparent but traders needed to look at two things.\u00a0 First, the cold snap was just temporary and, even though cold weather has sustained itself longer than many expected, the market has likely peaked on a buy-the-hype, sell-the-news reaction.\u00a0 Second, the dollar is moving a lot of markets with its recent price surge and oil demand globally is going to be hampered by not only global economic concerns, but also foreign currency weakness.<\/p>\n

TB:<\/strong> Many readers of your free weekly report, The Weekend Commodities Review<\/em> (WCR), are quite familiar with your bold forecast that the U.S. dollar index will hit 86 before it hits 70.\u00a0 What made you back that forecast with the promise to quit writing the WCR report forever if you are wrong?<\/p>\n

JM:<\/strong> I remember when I first started my career in the business I used to listen to the squawk box in the morning for opening market calls from the pit.\u00a0 Every morning the coffee guy would get on the box and say something like:<\/p>\n

\"Today I expect 1-2 higher on follow through buying from yesterday\u2019s rally with short covering from overexposed shorts.\u00a0 However, a flat opening is possible on hedge fund selling to lock in the current high prices.\u00a0 And if the weather forecast turns when the 9am report comes out we could see 1-2 lower.\"<\/em><\/p>\n

I remember thinking, how could this guy get paid to take absolutely no stance whatsoever?\u00a0 So I started writing a weekly forecast and if my analysis led me to believe the S&P500 was going to rally 5% this week or cocoa was going to plunge 300 points then I would make the call; right or wrong, I just thought someone needs to have some stones.\u00a0 20,000 subscribers and almost a decade later I would like to think my willingness to call\u2019em like I see\u2019em still comes through in my report.\u00a0 When I looked over the dollar market in 2009 I saw the potential for a unique opportunity to play such a strong long term forecast that I wanted to find a way to express my convictions above and beyond my typical forecasts, so I decided - let me put my career where my mouth is. Trust me, the last thing I want is to stop writing the WCR, but I think my readership appreciates my willingness to stand behind my forecast.<\/p>\n

TB:<\/strong> I think it is a rare thing to see amongst analysts these days.\u00a0 So the dollar made a big move in January and early February, just like you called it.\u00a0 Why did it move and what is next for the dollar and commodity prices?<\/p>\n

JM:<\/strong> Well if you think January was a big move then buckle up for the rest of 2010!\u00a0 Currencies can be tricky because they tend to have a ton of fundamental components as opposed to, let\u2019s say, corn for example \u2013 something that is heavily dependent on weather and planting cycles.\u00a0 However, the dollar is very exposed to what is happening across the pond.\u00a0 The euro represents 54.9% of the U.S. dollar index\u2019s composition.\u00a0 The euro has a fundamental flaw that has been revealed over the past 18 months.\u00a0 When individual economies go awry, their country\u2019s monetary policy can help bail them out of the jam by controlling rates, printing money, changing lending habits and so on.\u00a0 However, the euro currency limits the countries that comprise its ability to execute individual monetary policy.\u00a0 Think about it in terms of the Federal Reserve here in the states.\u00a0 They have a very difficult job to get ahead of the economic curve, and they often stumble and cause both small and large recessionary cycles.\u00a0 Now imagine doing that for 16 countries all with different economic issues and status \u2013 all at one single policy!\u00a0 As these countries cope with individual economic problems I believe the market is seeing a walkout on the currency.\u00a0 Keep in mind this is a currency that basically ran from 84 in mid-2001 to nearly 160 in 2008.\u00a0 I think a 50% retracement is in order and the U.S. will be the main beneficiary.\u00a0 Unfortunately, this spells disaster for commodity prices.<\/p>\n

TB:<\/strong> This disaster you see happening, when and how do you think this is going to unfold?<\/p>\n

JM:<\/strong> I feel strongly that 2010 will be an epic year in both stock and commodity markets.\u00a0 I wrote the 2010 forecast in January and I am following up with an update report to be released March 9th.\u00a0 I also traveled to Vietnam, the world\u2019s 2nd largest coffee producing country, and I sent some of my research militia to the front lines down in Brazil (#1 producer in the world).\u00a0 What I uncovered made me put together a report dedicated to the opportunities in the coffee market in 2010.<\/p>\n

TB<\/strong>: Sounds like your subscribers are really getting their money\u2019s worth!<\/p>\n

JM:<\/strong> Yes they're doing pretty darn well!<\/p>\n

TB:<\/strong> Well thanks again for giving us some insight, I know our readers are going to have more questions so be ready for a lot of comments when I post this on the blog! And I'll also hyperlink on the blog where readers can check out your 2010 Mega Commodities Forecast<\/a>.<\/p>\n

JM:<\/strong> Thanks, I look forward to the comments and welcoming new partners.<\/p>\n

From all of the team here at the Trader's Blog we would like to thank Mr. Mound for taking the time today to talk about the markets and his forecasts.<\/p>\n

Disclaimer: Trading in futures and options involves a substantial degree of a risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Recently we got the opportunity to sit down with Mr. James Mound, the head analyst for Mound Trade Signals and author of the book 7 Secrets Every Commodity Trader Needs to Know, for a one-on-one interview.\u00a0 Mr. Mound\u2019s 2010 Mega Commodities Forecast was released on January 5th and with it came scores of comments about […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":41,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[3074,3073,3072,3071,110,3075],"class_list":["post-1922","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general","tag-2010-commodities-forecast","tag-7-secrets-every-commodity-trader-needs-to-know","tag-james-mound","tag-mound-trade-signals","tag-oil","tag-us-dollar-index-forecast"],"yoast_head":"\n2010 Commodities Forecast, an Interview with James Mound - INO.com Trader's Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2010\/03\/2010-commodities-forecast-an-interview-with-james-mound\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2010 Commodities Forecast, an Interview with James Mound - 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