{"id":19638,"date":"2013-04-16T08:30:54","date_gmt":"2013-04-16T12:30:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=19638"},"modified":"2013-04-16T08:31:05","modified_gmt":"2013-04-16T12:31:05","slug":"gold-wipe-out-highlights-unbiased-risk-management","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2013\/04\/gold-wipe-out-highlights-unbiased-risk-management\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Wipe Out Highlights Unbiased Risk Management"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The damage in the precious metals began back in November when the critical 460 support level was broken on HUI.\u00a0 Anyone who did not acknowledge that the violation of this level (the neckline to the 2011 topping pattern) was important \u2013 or as NFTRH called it <em>\u201cabnormal\u201d<\/em> to a bullish case \u2013 was looking through rose colored glasses.<\/p>\n<p>After that came a bottoming attempt, a failure in January, numerous bottom calls from around the gold analyst spectrum and a series of bear flags that served to reset over sold status just enough to fuel each new plunge.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"\" src=\"\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/5087.jpg\" width=\"738\" height=\"555\" \/><\/p>\n<p>HUI daily chart, from NFTRH<\/p>\n<p>The first inkling of the most recent warning sign was noted immediately, in real time in this <a href=\"http:\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/2013\/04\/11\/nftrh-update-4-11-13-hui-technicals\/\">NFTRH update<\/a>.\u00a0 There is also a target of HUI 250 in that update.\u00a0 This target has been on watch for months now, as has another at 100, which has seemed improbable but for its measurement off of a massive topping pattern.\u00a0 260 is a 62% Fib retrace of the entire secular bull market.\u00a0 A trend line goes through the low 200\u2032s.\u00a0 100 is a cold, hard measurement.<\/p>\n<p>To be ready for these targets, first you need to be intact.\u00a0 Here is the key excerpt from last week\u2019s update linked above.\u00a0 This is all about discipline, not hope.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cI have used a combination of selling, cash raising and bear positions to squeeze out a small gain thus far this week.\u00a0 But it gets tiring compared to the comfort of simply sitting in cash, which has been the recommended risk management position for most people.\u00a0 If the HUI continues to look as bad as it does now my goal is to sit this one out as long as necessary.\u00a0 We will keep tabs on what I think is going to be a great contrary play, but we will not force it.\u00a0 We should let the technicals guide.<\/p>\n<p>So wearing an unbiased technical analyst\u2019s hat, we have a bear flag in the making.\u00a0 If it breaks down, HUI would lose the 50% secular bull retrace level, which is also the 62% cyclical retrace out of 2008.\u00a0 250 could easily be next up, as there is notable support there, just below the 62% secular retrace level.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><strong>Why Manage Risk?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>It is upsetting to see how many people maintained trust in the gold stocks because it is a sector that I believe suffers from way too much stagnant ideology and dogma.\u00a0 Also, I think the sector is supported by people who are generally good and have a sense of right and wrong.\u00a0 They are in a monetary revolution against corrupted and powerful entities after all.<\/p>\n<p>But that is no reason to be a victim.\u00a0 The gold sector has fiery leaders who command from a pulpit on high, as they chronicle the evil-doing of the banksters, cabals, central planners and other nefarious entities.\u00a0 You will notice that I don\u2019t use those terms except when trying to make a point that it never pays to be emotional in market management.<\/p>\n<p>Your only real potential enemy in the market is yourself.\u00a0 You are not on a team with a \u201ccommunity\u201d of others.\u00a0 Or if you are, you should not be.\u00a0 You should be thinking for yourself.\u00a0 The \u2018other\u2019 knows no more than you do, but if he thinks he does, then he is downright dangerous if you submit to him.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What Now?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>When the action becomes impulsive as it is now, never mind the targets.\u00a0 Watch the action.\u00a0 Right now the action in gold is startling, but it should not be surprising.\u00a0 When you invest in gold you understand that you are buying value and that you are committing to revolution against an entrenched system.\u00a0 What is revolution?\u00a0 It is war.\u00a0 People get killed in wars.\u00a0 They are trying to figuratively kill you if you are a gold bug.<\/p>\n<p>I sit in 100% cash (outside of one stock market short position) looking forward to a buying opportunity that could be a big one.\u00a0 Yet still I feel uneasy because I know lots of people just wanted to set it (the ideology) and forget it.\u00a0 NFTRH even lost subscribers over the years who were gold bulls that did not want to hear the frequent updating\/revising and the mental whipsaw it can induce.<\/p>\n<p>\u2018Buy and hold\u2019 is tough enough in the regular markets, but in this ground zero market to a monetary revolution, the intensity of the swings can be white hot.\u00a0 I sometimes put a disclaimer into the interim updates that people who do not want the mental whipsaw of short-term management should disregard such updates.\u00a0 But today\u2019s events serve to tell me that more of this is required, not less.\u00a0 So what now?\u00a0 Day-to-day and week-to-week management in service to opportunity; that is what now.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Bottom Line<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Unfortunately, this is not your grandfather\u2019s market.\u00a0 This is a market being \u2018hands-on\u2019 managed, massaged and outright violated by policy makers and their associates in the financial services industry and financial media.\u00a0 Gold especially is a monetary instrument that would shine a negative light on current policies.\u00a0 It is a digital and connected age, where anything is possible in the short-term.<\/p>\n<p>That \u201canything\u201d is now happening.\u00a0 This most recent and climactic destruction began with one simple little creep by the Gold Bugs Index out of a little bear flag.\u00a0 But the greater down trend began last November with a technical violation of an important support level.<\/p>\n<p>In risk management, the smallest details matter.\u00a0 This market is a war and you avoid the bullets first.\u00a0 Then you win later.\u00a0 The only way to do that is through constant checking and rechecking of assumptions and data points.\u00a0 It is a lot of work, but if you don\u2019t do the work you suffer the consequences.<\/p>\n<p>Work is good.\u00a0 Lazy thinking is not.\u00a0 Do the work folks.<\/p>\n<div>Regards,<br \/>\nGary Tanashian<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/\" target=\"_blank\">www.biiwii.com<\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/about-nftrh\/\" target=\"_blank\">NFTRH Premium <\/a><\/p>\n<p>Twitter @BiiwiiNFTRH<br \/>\nemail: <span \n                data-original-string=\"JTDqC5yyVjtBNfo0rQr\/Fg==\"\n                class=\"apbct-email-encoder\"\n                title=\"This contact has been encoded by Anti-Spam by CleanTalk. Click to decode. To finish the decoding make sure that JavaScript is enabled in your browser.\"><br \/>\n        <span class=\"apbct-ee-blur-group\"><br \/>\n            <span class=\"apbct-ee-blur_email-text\">**@bi****.com<\/span><br \/>\n            <span class=\"apbct-ee-static-blur\"><br \/>\n                <span class=\"apbct-ee-blur apbct-ee-blur_rectangle-init\"><\/span><br \/>\n                <span class=\"apbct-ee-blur apbct-ee-blur_rectangle-soft\"><\/span><br \/>\n                <span class=\"apbct-ee-blur apbct-ee-blur_rectangle-hard\"><\/span><br \/>\n            <\/span><br \/>\n            <span class=\"apbct-ee-animate-blur\"><br \/>\n                <span class=\"apbct-ee-blur apbct-ee-blur_rectangle-init apbct-ee-blur_animate-init\"><\/span><br \/>\n                <span class=\"apbct-ee-blur apbct-ee-blur_rectangle-soft apbct-ee-blur_animate-soft \"><\/span><br \/>\n                <span class=\"apbct-ee-blur apbct-ee-blur_rectangle-hard apbct-ee-blur_animate-hard\"><\/span><br \/>\n            <\/span><br \/>\n        <\/span><br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on the_content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The damage in the precious metals began back in November when the critical 460 support level was broken on HUI.\u00a0 Anyone who did not acknowledge that the violation of this level (the neckline to the 2011 topping pattern) was important \u2013 or as NFTRH called it \u201cabnormal\u201d to a bullish case \u2013 was looking through [&hellip;]<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":41,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1840,4273,23,7948,4594,4785,231,4995],"class_list":["post-19638","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general","tag-biiwiicom","tag-gary-tanashian","tag-gold","tag-guest-bloggers","tag-hui","tag-notes-from-the-rabbit-hole","tag-risk-management","tag-unbiased-risk-management"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.4 (Yoast SEO v23.6) - 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