{"id":2013,"date":"2010-04-28T01:30:13","date_gmt":"2010-04-28T05:30:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/club.ino.com:80\/trading\/?p=2013"},"modified":"2010-04-27T15:14:25","modified_gmt":"2010-04-27T19:14:25","slug":"baseline-for-active-investing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2010\/04\/baseline-for-active-investing\/","title":{"rendered":"Baseline for Active Investing"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone\" src=\"\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/2466.jpg\" alt=\"\" \/>Today's author is Jackie Ann Patterson, the editor of <a href=\"http:\/\/broadcast.ino.com\/redirect\/?linkid=1373\" target=\"_blank\">BackTesting Report<\/a>. Previously Jackie Ann showed us how to pick up on a potential trend change as well as how to recognize a mature trend using the MACD indicator. Today she has returned to the Trader's Blog to share a method for testing your trading strategy.<\/p>\n<p>----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<br \/>\nOne of the ways that traders use to determine the success of a potential strategy is to use a baseline. A baseline is a benchmark or a standard for comparison.  For example, some investors will use the gain\/loss of the S&amp;P 500 as a baseline of market performance.  That may be useful for investing long-term in large-caps, but less applicable to active investing and shorter-term trading.  This article shows you a different method of forming baselines and the win rate results for two types of stock market participants.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>Traders tend to gravitate to particular strategies, largely based on how frequently the trader wants to trade.\u00a0 Another point of view is that a strategy is selected, in part, because of how long it tends to hold a position.\u00a0 Therefore it makes sense to evaluate a strategy by comparing it to a baseline with a similar holding time.<\/p>\n<p>The baselines we use for comparison at BackTesting Report are exactly that.\u00a0 They are defined by the length of time they hold a stock:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> 200 days to represent active investing<\/li>\n<li> 20 days for position trading<\/li>\n<li> 2 days for swing trading<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The baselines are created with the simplest possible strategy.\u00a0 We use a back-testing engine to simulate buying every stock in our test set, holding it for the prescribed period, selling and then record the profit or loss.\u00a0 Of course, I wouldn\u2019t recommend trading such a simple strategy with a real account.\u00a0 It is merely a benchmark for comparison.\u00a0 The figure below illustrates win rate baselines for the US stock market.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone\" src=\"\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/2864.jpg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Each big blue bar on the graph represents different time periods in the stock market.\u00a0 The height of the bar shows the number of simulated trades that ended in a profit.\u00a0 Comparing the height of the bars, we can see differences between the test periods.\u00a0 For example, on the active investing chart above where the trades went on for exactly 200 days, our simple strategy in 1994-2004 produced a 57% win rate, 2004-2007 went better with a 62% win rate, and then the party ended for 2007-2008.<\/p>\n<p>We compare this to trading strategies that were back-tested on the same stocks in the same time periods.\u00a0 Armed with the baseline, we can see that a strategy that wins 60% of the time in 2004-2007 is actually losing more often than average, even though it is doing better than 50\/50.\u00a0 In trading, win rate isn\u2019t everything \u2013 this is just one example of applying a baseline.<\/p>\n<p>The Baseline issue of BackTesting Report covers the active investing baseline in more detail and gives you the baselines for swing traders and position traders as well.\u00a0 It also explains more about back-testing and how to apply the baseline.\u00a0 This free pdf report is available for anonymous download.\u00a0 You\u2019ll find it in the middle of this <a href=\"http:\/\/broadcast.ino.com\/redirect\/?linkid=1373\" target=\"_blank\">BackTesting Report web page<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<\/p>\n<p>Jackie Ann Patterson, the editor of BackTesting Report, is an expert at  evaluating technical trading strategies such as the MACD indicator and  Stochastic Oscillator.\u00a0 Today she shares her favorite approach to rating  a strategy by comparing it to a meaningful baseline.\u00a0 This article  gives you a win rate baseline for active investing.\u00a0 For more  information and shorter-term baselines, you\u2019re welcome to download the  baseline issue of BackTesting Report free with no email address  required.<\/p>\n<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on the_content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Today's author is Jackie Ann Patterson, the editor of BackTesting Report. Previously Jackie Ann showed us how to pick up on a potential trend change as well as how to recognize a mature trend using the MACD indicator. Today she has returned to the Trader's Blog to share a method for testing your trading strategy. [&hellip;]<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":41,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[2985,3194,1863,2984,2182,62,3220,415],"class_list":["post-2013","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general","tag-backtesting-report","tag-blogger","tag-guest","tag-jackie-ann-patterson","tag-kenny","tag-macd","tag-oscillator","tag-stochastic"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.4 (Yoast SEO v23.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Baseline for Active Investing - INO.com Trader&#039;s Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2010\/04\/baseline-for-active-investing\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Baseline for Active Investing - INO.com Trader&#039;s Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Today&#039;s author is Jackie Ann Patterson, the editor of BackTesting Report. 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