{"id":21628,"date":"2013-08-13T09:25:25","date_gmt":"2013-08-13T13:25:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=21628"},"modified":"2013-08-13T09:25:25","modified_gmt":"2013-08-13T13:25:25","slug":"commodities-precious-metals-and-economic-contraction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2013\/08\/commodities-precious-metals-and-economic-contraction\/","title":{"rendered":"Commodities, Precious Metals and Economic Contraction"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>The 'Commodity' segment, excerpted and expanded upon, from NFTRH 251:<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The commodity complex is famous for a sort of 'Whack-a-Mole' quality to it.\u00a0 Do you remember back in the go-go days when it was NatGas (2005)?\u00a0 Uranium (2007)?\u00a0 Crude Oil (2008) and then a cluster of Copper (2011), Grains (2011) and Silver (2011)?<\/p>\n<p>Well today none of them are doing much.\u00a0 Oil went up but could be topping, Copper went down but is bouncing hard, Uranium, Gas and Grains are nowhere.\u00a0 The result is this\u2026<!--more--><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/cci1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-12304\" alt=\"cci\" src=\"\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/cci1-500x221.png\" width=\"500\" height=\"221\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The CCI index is at support but in an intermediate bear trend.\u00a0 A break of 550 brings on the commodity\/inflation trade.\u00a0 That is a long way away and I have my doubts it will be able to get going any time soon.<\/p>\n<p>They are already talking about the death of the dollar again in the inflationist camp.\u00a0 That is because the dollar has been dropping hard.\u00a0 Here is the daily chart showing that it is simply in the same Reverse Symmetrical Triangle that we used to note its risk of correction in early July.\u00a0 Now we note its support, with maybe a little more downside room before it finds a platform from which it can rally again.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/usd.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-12305\" alt=\"usd.day\" src=\"\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/usd-500x408.png\" width=\"500\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Exercise caution when an inflationist tells you about hyperinflation and the death of the dollar.\u00a0 Again, NFTRH is not a gold bull and certainly not a gold stock bull because of the inflation argument.\u00a0 The gold sector analysis is bullish because the big picture economic contraction environment is intact and that is more likely to include a stronger dollar than a weak one.\u00a0 Here is the USD bull signal chart introduced back in NFRH 230:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/usd.wk_.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-12306\" alt=\"usd.wk\" src=\"\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/usd.wk_-500x221.png\" width=\"500\" height=\"221\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><b>Bottom Line<\/b><\/p>\n<p>The US dollar is in an uptrend out of the 2011 inflation hysteria lows.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/gold.cci_1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-12307\" alt=\"au.cci\" src=\"\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/gold.cci_1-500x221.png\" width=\"500\" height=\"221\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>We are on a big picture economic contraction.\u00a0 Within this there are people on the right and left goring each other out over politics <em>[NFTRH 251 included discussion about political motivations in market views.\u00a0 Rabid members of each political pole suffer extreme bias and should be rejected by successful long-term market players]<\/em>.\u00a0 The Gold-CCI ratio just stair steps through time and space and does not care about any of it.\u00a0 It went nowhere during Bush and the last inflationary cyclical bull market.\u00a0 Today it is biased up with huge swings in a deflationary phase during Obama and unprecedented policy making by the current Fed regime.<\/p>\n<p>If Au-CCI breaks down NFTRH terminates its biggest picture view.\u00a0 If it is bottoming here, we are good to go.*\u00a0 Gold declined vs. commodities in the post 2008 period.\u00a0 That was inflationary.\u00a0 Gold has declined vs. commodities in the post 2011 period.\u00a0 But this period is not inflationary.\u00a0 Something has changed.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/silver.cci_.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-12308\" alt=\"ag.cci\" src=\"\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/silver.cci_-500x303.png\" width=\"500\" height=\"303\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, we might as well add the Ag-CCI ratio to the mix since silver has done so much hard work in bleeding off the [inflation-fueled] excesses from 2011.\u00a0 It is at a major support zone vs. commodities and may be ready to emphasize the 'money' side of its monetary\/industrial commodity cross-dress routine.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>* With respect to the sector that in my opinion now has the best risk vs. reward proposition in the stock market, we noted the following in another segment:<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>\"To review, a gold mining operation wants to see an ongoing economic contraction in place.\u00a0 The problem of late is that policy makers have been fighting the contraction \u2013 and winning!\u00a0 Yes, as we have reported for months, the Semiconductor canaries are tweeting in the coal mine and wouldn\u2019t you know that manufacturing followed them to recovery.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>That is the past and present.\u00a0 What we are interested in is the future.\"<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>We spent the last 8 months in risk management mode (with respect to the precious metals) and now are intact and ready to capitalize on coming trends.\u00a0 If macro analysis tells me that the bull view is the wrong view on gold, silver and the miners we will take that bitter pill and deal in its reality.<\/p>\n<p>But the thing is, the work (which goes well beyond this snippet excerpt) is signaling a major risk vs. reward setup even as legions of trend followers (see the 2 year decline in Gold-CCI above) have all the intellectualized reasoning and hard evidence (of economic growth, which we saw coming before most currently chest thumping bulls) they need to call <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1624852-golds-fear-and-uncertainty-trade-is-dead\" target=\"_blank\">Gold\u2019s Fear and Uncertainty Trade Dead<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Folks, these are the markets and they are going to wash away people with political blinders, impenetrable egos and all sorts of others who refuse to do the daily work to remain unbiased.\u00a0 If you would like a service that works hard to manage what <em>is<\/em>, not what preconceived notions would have us <em>believe<\/em> is, join me at <a href=\"http:\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/about-nftrh\/\">NFTRH<\/a> in managing what look to be big changes coming to a macro near you in the months ahead.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #808000;\">[edit]<\/span>\u00a0 A reader rightfully questioned what I mean by inflation.\u00a0 To be clear, from day one I have defined inflation \u2013 or more accurately the ongoing inflation attempt \u2013 as increasing money supply with things like the stock market\u2019s rise or commodities\u2019 current failure to get the inflation bid as the back end or the tail that the dog is wagging; the <em>effects<\/em> of inflation.<\/p>\n<p>NFTRH 251 went into great detail about money supply and its relationship to the stock market and gold too, for that matter.<\/p>\n<p>I should have called it a would-be commodity inflation 'effects' trade rather than an \u2018inflation trade\u2019.\u00a0 Indeed, an inflation 'effects' trade is in progress and maturing.\u00a0 It is happening in the US stock market.\u00a0 The effects of previous inflationary operations are still firmly embedded in other areas of the economy and not likely to be relinquished any time soon in my opinion.\u00a0 That is what inflation does, it festers in prices long after any given operation has terminated.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.biiwii.com\">Biiwii.com<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/about-nftrh\/\">Notes From the Rabbit Hole<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/follow?original_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fplatform.twitter.com%2Fwidgets%2Ffollow_button.1375828408.html&amp;region=follow_link&amp;screen_name=BiiwiiNFTRH&amp;tw_p=followbutton&amp;variant=2.0\">Twitter<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/free-eletter\/\">Free eLetter<\/a><\/p>\n<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on the_content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The 'Commodity' segment, excerpted and expanded upon, from NFTRH 251: The commodity complex is famous for a sort of 'Whack-a-Mole' quality to it.\u00a0 Do you remember back in the go-go days when it was NatGas (2005)?\u00a0 Uranium (2007)?\u00a0 Crude Oil (2008) and then a cluster of Copper (2011), Grains (2011) and Silver (2011)? Well today [&hellip;]<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":35,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1840,484,5437,4273,7948,4785,307],"class_list":["post-21628","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general","tag-biiwiicom","tag-commodities","tag-economic-contraction","tag-gary-tanashian","tag-guest-bloggers","tag-notes-from-the-rabbit-hole","tag-precious-metals"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.4 (Yoast SEO v23.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Commodities, Precious Metals and Economic Contraction - INO.com Trader&#039;s Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2013\/08\/commodities-precious-metals-and-economic-contraction\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Commodities, Precious Metals and Economic Contraction - INO.com Trader&#039;s Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The &#039;Commodity&#039; segment, excerpted and expanded upon, from NFTRH 251: The commodity complex is famous for a sort of &#039;Whack-a-Mole&#039; quality to it.\u00a0 Do you remember back in the go-go days when it was NatGas (2005)?\u00a0 Uranium (2007)?\u00a0 Crude Oil (2008) and then a cluster of Copper (2011), Grains (2011) and Silver (2011)? 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