{"id":23462,"date":"2013-11-11T09:33:31","date_gmt":"2013-11-11T14:33:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=23462"},"modified":"2013-11-11T09:33:31","modified_gmt":"2013-11-11T14:33:31","slug":"3ps-supporting-massive-market-speculation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2013\/11\/3ps-supporting-massive-market-speculation\/","title":{"rendered":"3P's Supporting Massive Market Speculation"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Policy, Profits and Propping\u2026 that is without a doubt the underlying fundamental support for a massive and growing phase of market speculation that becomes more dangerous with every week that it lurches forward.\u00a0 Once again, the chart that proves this in no uncertain terms:<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" id=\"attachment_14331\" style=\"width: 510px;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/sp500.base_.profits2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-14331\" alt=\"ppp\" src=\"\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/sp500.base_.profits2-500x311.png\" width=\"500\" height=\"311\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-caption-text\"><span style=\"color: #993300;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u2018<strong>Policy, Profits &amp; Propping<\/strong>\u2018 courtesy of<\/span> <a href=\"http:\/\/slopeofhope.com\/socialtrade\/chart\/editor\" target=\"_blank\">SlopeCharts<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Note the 3 humps on the S&amp;P 500 (orange).\u00a0 Again we review\u2026<!--more--><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Hump #1<\/strong> was a massive speculative surge that separated the stock market from all reasonable measures of fair valuation.\u00a0 It was the terminal phase of a great secular bull market in US stocks.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Hump #2<\/strong> was not over valued compared to corporate profits, which were generally instigated by the Greenspan inflation that began in 2001.\u00a0 From this inflation sprang a massive bubble in commercial credit.\u00a0 Wall Street took over and sold the inflation to the world in the form of dangerous securitized 'investment' instruments.\u00a0 As long as it worked, corporate America flourished; especially <em>financial<\/em> corporate America.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>After the liquidations that inevitably followed Humps 1 and 2, the Bernanke Fed instigated the mother of all monetary inflation attempts as ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) was initiated in December 2008 and remains an accepted, almost forgotten part of the macro landscape to this day.\u00a0 Add to this an automated regimen of Treasury and MBS 'asset' purchases (despite the \u2018taper\u2019 jawboning that periodically hits the media) in an attempt to keep long term interest rates down and deleverage the previous bubble, and you have policy working over time.\u00a0 Introducing <strong>Hump #3<\/strong>, who\u2019s time is coming due if it is to match the roughly 5 year lifespans of Humps 1 and 2.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The point of the chart above is to illustrate that those with an agenda to ride the trend and look smart are correct when they state that the US stock market is <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">not<\/span> particularly over valued\u2026 if one shuts off one's brain and accepts policy (blue Monetary Base line, which is but one of several money supply measures) as being at all normal or healthy.\u00a0 Corporate profits (green) are doing great.\u00a0 All's good as the S&amp;P 500 is merely keeping up with its fundamentals.<\/p>\n<p>But these fundamentals are 100% dependent upon some quasi financial institution's will or ability to continue the inflation.\u00a0 Or, as with Hump's 1 and 2, the public's willingness to continue the speculation.\u00a0 A secular bull market blew out in 2000 as the final speculative surge by the public and wildly imprudent financial 'professionals' just expired and fell apart.\u00a0 In 2007 something went wrong with the Ponzi racket certain big institutions had going, in which they enriched themselves at the expense of the public through an officially supported commercial credit bubble.<\/p>\n<p>Today we are asked to believe that policy, profits and propping can go on indefinitely, and in the most optimistic views, into a new secular bull market.\u00a0 The public generally believes that a new bull market began early this year after having sat out the first 4 years of the still-ongoing cyclical bull that began in March of 2009.\u00a0 This is going to end very badly, whether sooner or later.\u00a0 March of 2014 is 5 years, but there is no guarantee this bull will reach that nice, round number.<\/p>\n<p>The following graphics courtesy of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.sentimentrader.com\" target=\"_blank\">Sentimentrader<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/smart.dumb_2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-14336\" alt=\"smart.dumb\" src=\"\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/smart.dumb_2.png\" width=\"398\" height=\"279\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The public (largely dumb money) is now lovin' itself some stock market.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/tech.spec_.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-14337\" alt=\"tech.spec\" src=\"\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/tech.spec_-490x500.png\" width=\"490\" height=\"500\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>In fact, in the tradition of the great blow off in 1999\/2000, big tech is the center of the speculative attention.\u00a0 This aligns with the recent post <a href=\"http:\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/2013\/10\/29\/cyclical-mini-big-secular-event\/\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>A Cyclical 'Mini Me' to a Big Secular Event<\/strong><\/a>.\u00a0 This is not a new era, and it is a bubble; in policy making or more accurately in market participants' willingness to believe in policy making.<\/p>\n<p>Ben Bernanke is the same man that everybody hated in 2011.\u00a0 The Fed is the same chronically inflating entity.\u00a0 It is just that this go round the inflation is 'working' toward the ends that would appear to benefit the most people, and as with previous inflation-instigated speculations (in crude oil and silver for example) speculators are jumping on this one.\u00a0 Go have a look at the charts of crude in 2008 and silver in 2011.\u00a0 Or how about the Nasdaq 100 in 2000?<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" id=\"attachment_14338\" style=\"width: 510px;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/ndx.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-14338\" alt=\"ndx\" src=\"\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/ndx-500x300.png\" width=\"500\" height=\"300\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-caption-text\">NDX monthly, from NFTRH 261<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>This chart was produced in <a href=\"http:\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/about-nftrh\/\" target=\"_blank\">NFTRH<\/a> 3 weeks ago to illustrate the extent of participation in this echo bubble (again, the bubble is in policy, not so much stock prices this time), which is a cyclical version of the secular thing that blew out in 2000.\u00a0 Does NDX look vulnerable to you?\u00a0 How about when considering the Sentimentrader graphs directly above?\u00a0 Or Rydex cash levels (a lack thereof)?\u00a0 Or current margin levels being employed by stock market speculators?\u00a0 The list goes on.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Bottom Line<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Bubbles can go on and on until they expire and meet a furious end.\u00a0 I am sure many people think they will get out at exactly the right time.\u00a0 It\u2019s just a game of musical chairs.\u00a0 Was yesterday's hard drop anything to be concerned about?\u00a0 Well, recent high flying bubble stocks like FB and TSLA are showing some cracks (and topping patterns).\u00a0 MSFT seems to be blowing upward with hot money thinking it better get a hold of the likes of dependable old Mr. Softie, leaving the high flyers and high valuations behind.<\/p>\n<p>This bubble can endure out to next spring by my work.\u00a0 It can also end tomorrow\u2026 or yesterday.\u00a0 The point is that the Federal Reserve, through its automated and destructive policy, has indeed instigated another bubble with speculation running high.\u00a0 A big change is coming.\u00a0 Don't get played.\u00a0 Forget the 3 P's; go with the 3 C's\u2026 Caution, Clarity and eventually, Capitalization.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/about-nftrh\/\" target=\"_blank\">NFTRH<\/a> is managing events in a clear and grounded manner, in the weekly letter and by in-week updates at the site.\u00a0 It seems clear that one year from now the landscape is going to look very different than it does today.\u00a0 The only way to be in alignment with changes is to see and evaluate the potential and timing for these changes in an ongoing manner, subjecting the analysis to various acid tests along the way.\u00a0 You arrive at your destination intact and ready to capitalize through unbiased and consistent work, not through predictions or holding to dogma through thick and thin.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.biiwii.com\" target=\"_blank\">Biiwii.com<\/a> | <a href=\"http:\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/about-nftrh\/\" target=\"_blank\">Notes From the Rabbit Hole<\/a> | <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/follow?original_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fplatform.twitter.com%2Fwidgets%2Ffollow_button.1383343979.html&amp;region=follow_link&amp;screen_name=BiiwiiNFTRH&amp;tw_p=followbutton&amp;variant=2.0\" target=\"_blank\">Twitter<\/a> | <a href=\"http:\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/free-eletter\/\" target=\"_blank\">Free eLetter<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on the_content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Policy, Profits and Propping\u2026 that is without a doubt the underlying fundamental support for a massive and growing phase of market speculation that becomes more dangerous with every week that it lurches forward.\u00a0 Once again, the chart that proves this in no uncertain terms: \u2018Policy, Profits &amp; Propping\u2018 courtesy of SlopeCharts &nbsp; Note the 3 [&hellip;]<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":41,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1840,4273,7948,5896,4785],"class_list":["post-23462","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general","tag-biiwiicom","tag-gary-tanashian","tag-guest-bloggers","tag-market-speculation","tag-notes-from-the-rabbit-hole"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.4 (Yoast SEO v23.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>3P&#039;s Supporting Massive Market Speculation - INO.com Trader&#039;s Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2013\/11\/3ps-supporting-massive-market-speculation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta 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