{"id":25286,"date":"2014-02-15T08:00:46","date_gmt":"2014-02-15T13:00:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=25286"},"modified":"2014-02-14T17:06:15","modified_gmt":"2014-02-14T22:06:15","slug":"precious-metals-grind-out-a-new-trend","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2014\/02\/precious-metals-grind-out-a-new-trend\/","title":{"rendered":"Precious Metals Grind Out a New Trend"},"content":{"rendered":"

Gold is Monetary Value<\/strong><\/p>\n

We preface the post with a statement that has not changed since I began public writing nearly 10 years ago:\u00a0 Gold is not about price; gold is about value<\/em>.\u00a0 This point was hammered home to me 11 years ago by a person who had much influence upon my viewpoint toward the financial system and its various diseased components at a time when I was ready to listen and understand.<\/p>\n

So whether we are talking about 2013\u2032s epic price crash or a new bull trend in 2014, the simple fact is that physical gold itself is a store of monetary value.\u00a0 That applied last year as the value was marked down by greed and confidence and it will apply this year as it is marked up in the face of a likely unwinding of those things.\u00a0 Humans, what funny and hyper kinetic animals.<\/p>\n

Precious Metals Speculation<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ah, but this post is about the fun part, the speculative<\/em> part where we humans can make gains from gaming the simple store of value and its wild little brother, silver.\u00a0 As asset market speculators we care about prices, right?\u00a0 How about the share prices of the completely blown to bits miners that dig the stuff out of the ground?<\/p>\n

There is a reason we put so much effort (i.e. risk management) into not letting the declines of the last 2+ years hurt us, and that reason was to be fully intact for when it is time to speculate.\u00a0 Now, a bottoming process has been ongoing since last spring, believe it or not.<\/p>\n

\"hui\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The Inverted Head & Shoulders scenario may or may not be the ultimate outcome of the weekly chart above, but NFTRH<\/a> has been operating to its potential for months now as the grind in gold stocks has well, ground on<\/em>.\u00a0 In fact, a grinding bottom would provide a better basis or platform for the rally (or baby cyclical bull) than the vertical thing that failed in 2012 off a \u2018W\u2019 bottom attempt.<\/p>\n

Weekly MACD triggered up back in the summer and when it was confirmed by the slower TRIX we had our two most important bigger picture bottoming signals.\u00a0 These have kept us in the gold stocks game \u2013 whether substantially positioned or ready to be \u2013 since the TRIX signal.\u00a0 But again, the bottoming process has been a real grinder for the better part of a year now.\u00a0 Time flies when you\u2019re having fun!<\/p>\n

Not\u2026 this bottom has been grinding peoples\u2019 nerves every step of the way and as noted to NFTRH subscribers along the way, this is a good thing.\u00a0 A grinding, painful and highly doubted bottom is a better<\/em> bottom.<\/p>\n

But it takes a new daily trend to even begin moving from a potential bull phase to an actual bull phase.\u00a0 Several weeks ago NFTRH was noting that a bull signal (for a rally at least) would be indicated by a rise above the 50 day moving averages in tandem with MACD going green (0+).\u00a0 While I personally positioned during the false breakdown below 200, it was advised in NFTRH that conservative investors and traders might wish to wait for the above noted signals.\u00a0 Check.<\/p>\n

As to whether this is a new cyclical bull market or just a rally, the weekly chart above will eventually decide that question.\u00a0 There is no need to define it yet, because a bull phase is a bull phase as far as speculators are concerned.\u00a0 If it is a bull market, there will be plenty of time for late comers to jump in and mark it up later.<\/p>\n

\"hui.daily\"<\/a><\/p>\n

As for staying aboard the rally in the meantime, here is where the fundamentals will come into play, joining the technicals.\u00a0 During much of 2013 we were treated to much railing from within the gold \u2018community\u2019 that gold\u2019s fundamentals had never been better.\u00a0 But in reality, gold\u2019s fundamentals as NFTRH views them \u2013 which are beyond the scope of this post (ref: Gold Mining is Counter Cyclical<\/a>), but are definitely not what you read in the mainstream financial media or hear touted by certain gold bug analyses \u2013 degraded consistently in 2013.<\/p>\n

It can be argued (I for one have argued it) that these fundamentals were jimmied and rigged by all too cynical policy making, but just because something is rigged, you as a speculator, do not stand in front of it.\u00a0 In fact, as a speculator you put your dogma on a leash* and trade what is<\/em>, not what your inner most convictions tell you should<\/em> be.\u00a0 In other words, trade your brain not your heart.<\/p>\n

Bottom Line<\/strong><\/p>\n

The daily trend in the precious metals and in particular gold and silver stocks, which have led the metals as we would like to see in a real bull phase, has turned up.\u00a0 A new bull market is still a ways from being indicated, but for now we\u2019ll take a rally and realize that with the bearishness of the last 2+ years and the grind that the recent bottoming activity has been, a new cyclical bull market could also be in play.<\/p>\n

Do not listen to the hype.\u00a0 The macro fundamentals have begun to improve for the gold sector and this will need to continue.\u00a0 NFTRH will manage these fundamentals every step of the way, as well as keep a running tab on the technicals.\u00a0 There will be hysterical rises and challenging declines going forward, but sector fundamentals and support parameters will successfully guide us.<\/p>\n

Our big picture theme for 2014 has been a \u2018macro pivot\u2019 away from the trends of the last couple of years.\u00a0 Give the affordable NFTRH<\/a> (weekly report and detailed \u2018in-week\u2019 updates) a try and you will likely not be disappointed (see subscribers\u2019 thoughts<\/a>).\u00a0 We are as we have been since the service\u2019s launch in 2008, ready to speculate and\/or manage risk as the market deems appropriate.<\/p>\n

Biiwii.com<\/a> | Notes From the Rabbit Hole<\/a> | Free eLetter<\/a> | Twitter<\/a><\/p>\n

* Paraphrasing the cool lyric from Boston rock band Volcano Suns \u201cPut that dogma on a leash.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Gold is Monetary Value We preface the post with a statement that has not changed since I began public writing nearly 10 years ago:\u00a0 Gold is not about price; gold is about value.\u00a0 This point was hammered home to me 11 years ago by a person who had much influence upon my viewpoint toward the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":41,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1840,4273,23,2315,4258,5092,4785,307,294],"class_list":["post-25286","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general","tag-biiwiicom","tag-gary-tanashian","tag-gold","tag-gold-chart","tag-gold-miners","tag-nftrh","tag-notes-from-the-rabbit-hole","tag-precious-metals","tag-silver"],"yoast_head":"\nPrecious Metals Grind Out a New Trend - INO.com Trader's Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2014\/02\/precious-metals-grind-out-a-new-trend\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Precious Metals Grind Out a New Trend - 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