{"id":27714,"date":"2014-06-14T08:15:50","date_gmt":"2014-06-14T12:15:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=27714"},"modified":"2014-06-13T17:16:32","modified_gmt":"2014-06-13T21:16:32","slug":"good-reason-for-doom-and-gloom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2014\/06\/good-reason-for-doom-and-gloom\/","title":{"rendered":"Good Reason for Doom and Gloom"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4><span style=\"font-size: small;\">By Doug French, Contributing Editor<\/span><\/h4>\n<p>Predicting the future, like getting old, ain\u2019t for sissies. Questioning the bull market is even more treacherous.<iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http:\/\/trk.caseyresearch.com\/f\/?content_id=885&amp;code=INO&amp;editorial=good-reason-for-doom-and-gloom-1\" height=\"1\" width=\"1\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Howard Gold, writing for <em>MarketWatch<\/em>, makes fun of seers who made what he calls \u201cthe four worst predictions to gain traction over the past few years.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Gold says the last six years have been a disaster for those who stayed out of the stock market. He claims there\u2019s a bull market in doom and gloom, referring to a column by his colleague Chuck Jaffe, who points out, \u201cThe fortune-tellers \u2026 know that the more outrageous the prediction, the more attention they get. They can highlight any forecasts they get right, knowing that their misfires are forgotten quickly. Thus, calamity and catastrophe sells. Right now, it\u2019s a bull market for bearish forecasts.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>If such a bull market in doom were really happening, the market wouldn\u2019t be hitting all-time highs. Besides, no one ever went broke being out of the market.<\/p>\n<p>But more importantly, there is a very good reason people respond to gloomy forecasts. Behavioral economics pioneer and 2002 Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman explains in his bestseller <em>Thinking, Fast and Slow<\/em> that when people compare losses and gains, they weigh losses more heavily. There\u2019s an evolutionary reason for this: \u201cOrganisms that treat threats as more urgent than opportunities have a better chance to survive and reproduce,\u201d Kahneman explains.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>Most people, when given the opportunity to win $150 or lose $100 on a coin flip, decline the bet because the fear of losing $100 is more intense than the hope of gaining $150. Kahneman writes that the typical loss aversion ratio seen in most experiments is 1.5 to 2.5. Professional stock traders have much higher tolerance for risk, but most people investing their retirement accounts are not pros and have little fortitude for losses.<\/p>\n<p>The average Joe can\u2019t just sit tight while his retirement account drops 40%. He\u2019s not wired that way. His retirement savings represent safety, and a market crash is the modern equivalent of a flood, a bear, or a warring tribe. When stocks start falling, survival mode kicks in. He or she sells and runs for cover.<\/p>\n<p>So when someone makes a compelling case that stocks might crash, the average person rightly listens. Otherwise they don\u2019t get any sleep.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Gloomy Forecasts<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p style=\"margin-top: 10px;\">Economist and financial newsletter writer Harry Dent predicted the DJIA would crash to 3,000 and told investors to bail out between early 2012 and late 2013. Some people likely took him up on it. In July 2010, Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave fame predicted the DJIA would fall to well below 1,000 over the ensuing five or six years.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI\u2019m saying: \u2018Winter is coming. Buy a coat,\u2019\u201d Prechter told the <em>New York Times<\/em>. \u201cOther people are advising people to stay naked. If I\u2019m wrong, you\u2019re not hurt. If they\u2019re wrong, you\u2019re dead. It\u2019s pretty benign advice to opt for safety for a while.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>While Prechter sees massive deflation on the horizon, Marc Faber, editor of the <em>Gloom, Boom &amp; Doom Report<\/em>, says Zimbabwe-style hyperinflation is on the way. Gold calls this \u201cthe single worst prediction of the past five years.\u201d Gold calls Faber wacky for telling <em>Bloomberg<\/em> in 2009:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: .5in;\">I am 100% sure that the U.S. will go into hyperinflation. Not tomorrow, but the problem with the government debt growing so much is that when the time will come and the Fed should increase interest rates, they\u2019ll be very reluctant to do so and so inflation will start to accelerate.<\/p>\n<p>Peter Schiff\u2019s call for $5,000\/oz gold also has Mr. Gold laughing. Schiff sees the Fed printing more to stimulate the economy, which will send the yellow metal soaring.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBack in the real world,\u201d sneers Gold, \u201cnew Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen is actually winding down the Fed\u2019s extra bond buying (quantitative easing, or QE), and she\u2019s on pace to finish by fall.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Europe\u2019s economic problems had establishment news outlets like <em>The Economist<\/em> saying in November 2011, the euro \u201ccould break up within weeks.\u201d President Obama\u2019s former chief economist, Austan Goolsbee, said \u201cthere probably isn\u2019t\u201d any way to hold the eurozone together.<\/p>\n<p>And the ultimate establishment voice, Alan Greenspan, told CNBC the divergent cultures using one currency \u201csimply can\u2019t continue to work.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>So it\u2019s not just wackadoodles wearing tinfoil hats missing the mark, as Mr. Gold implies. He writes, \u201cBut too many people have lost precious time and a chance to make real money by listening to these fear mongers. They\u2019re probably kicking themselves now, or should be.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>However, nearly all of the gloomy prognostications Gold makes fun of are in response to the actions of central bankers, who have been at least as wrong as anyone else in their predictions.<\/p>\n<p>Big financial-services companies should be kicking themselves for paying Greenspan $100,000 a speech these days. The Maestro reportedly hauled in an $8.5 million advance for his book, <em>The Age of Turbulence<\/em>. That\u2019s a lot to pay for someone who whiffed on the housing bubble. In 2002, Greenspan said, \u201cEven if a bubble were to develop in a local market, it would not necessarily have implications for the nation as a whole.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Ben Bernanke, who used to make $200,000 a year, now makes \u201cthat in just a few hours speaking to bankers, hedge fund billionaires and leaders of industry,\u201d the <em>New York Times<\/em> reports. \u201cThis year alone, he is poised to make millions of dollars from speaking engagements.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He hasn\u2019t exactly been an accurate predictor either. In 2005, Ben Bernanke was asked if the housing market was overheated. \u201cWell, I guess I don\u2019t buy your premise,\u201d he replied. \u201cIt\u2019s a pretty unlikely possibility. We\u2019ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Even former Treasury Secretary and ex-New York Fed President Tim Geithner is getting in on the action, receiving $100,000 to $200,000 per talk. Plus he likely received a large advance for his book <em>Stress Test<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Geithner admits he didn\u2019t see the financial crisis coming. In his review of Geithner\u2019s book, <em>Flash Boys<\/em> author Michael Lewis writes, \u201cThe story Geithner goes on to tell blames everyone and no one. The crisis he describes might just as well have been an act of God.\u201d<\/p>\n<h3><strong>They Warn for a Reason<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p style=\"margin-top: 10px;\">Mr. Gold believes that economic catastrophes have natural causes. \u201cBad things happen in life,\u201d he writes. \u201cHurricanes and tornadoes destroy communities. Nuclear war and climate change are big long-term dangers. And there will be bear markets and deep recessions in the years ahead.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Inflation to any degree is not an act of God. Neither are currency nor stock market crashes. Central bankers create these calamities and then ride off into the sunset, earning six-figure speaking fees and multimillion-dollar book deals. The positive reinforcement they receive ensures they\u2019ll repeat the same mistakes over and over again.<\/p>\n<p>Thus, warnings <em>must<\/em> be issued constantly. Bad things are going to happen to the finances of individuals who aren\u2019t prepared.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s not a matter of if, but when. Better scared than sorry.<\/p>\n<p>(Editor\u2019s Note: How quickly a crisis can creep up on you is demonstrated in our Casey Research documentary, <strong><em>Meltdown America<\/em><\/strong>. If you haven\u2019t watched it yet, you should. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.caseyresearch.com\/go\/v3644-2\/INO\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to watch this free video.<\/a>)<\/p>\n<div id=\"xvMdV95u77zU\" style=\"clear: both;\">The article <a href=\"http:\/\/www.caseyresearch.com\/go\/v3675-2\/INO\" rel=\"permalink\">Good Reason for Doom and Gloom<\/a> was originally published at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.caseyresearch.com\/go\/v36s6-2\/INO\">caseyresearch.com<\/a>.<\/div>\n<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on the_content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Doug French, Contributing Editor Predicting the future, like getting old, ain\u2019t for sissies. Questioning the bull market is even more treacherous. Howard Gold, writing for MarketWatch, makes fun of seers who made what he calls \u201cthe four worst predictions to gain traction over the past few years.\u201d Gold says the last six years have [&hellip;]<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":41,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[4345,6461,5834,6078,6367,5671,6399],"class_list":["post-27714","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general","tag-caseyresearch-com","tag-daniel-kahneman","tag-doug-french","tag-harry-dent","tag-meltdown-america","tag-robert-prechter","tag-tim-geithner"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.4 (Yoast SEO v23.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Good Reason for Doom and Gloom - INO.com Trader&#039;s Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2014\/06\/good-reason-for-doom-and-gloom\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Good Reason for Doom and Gloom - INO.com Trader&#039;s Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Doug French, Contributing Editor Predicting the future, like getting old, ain\u2019t for sissies. 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