{"id":28981,"date":"2014-08-23T08:29:44","date_gmt":"2014-08-23T12:29:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=28981"},"modified":"2014-08-22T16:30:01","modified_gmt":"2014-08-22T20:30:01","slug":"deflationary-straw-man","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2014\/08\/deflationary-straw-man\/","title":{"rendered":"Deflationary Straw Man"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright\" src=\"\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/5860.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"149\" height=\"194\" \/>No matter the debates over inflation vs. deflation, increasing employment vs. sound monetary policy or systemic health vs. fragility (and whatever else is flying around in Jackson Hole this week), the CPI marches onward and upward.\u00a0 That is the system and it is predicated on creating enough money out of thin air while inflation signals are (somehow) held at bay.<\/p>\n<p>The Straw Man* in this argument lives in the idea that inflation is not always destructive, that inflation can be used for good and honed, massaged and targeted <em>just right<\/em> to achieve positive ends to defeat the curse of deflation that is surely just around the next corner.\u00a0 Currently, the Straw Man is supported by the reality of the moment, which includes long-term Treasury yields remaining in their long-term secular down trend.<\/p>\n<p>Indeed, right here at this very site was displayed much doubt about the promotion having to do with the \u201cGreat Rotation\u201d out of bonds and into stocks (i.e. that the yield would break the red dotted EMA 100 <em>this<\/em> time).\u00a0 We noted it right at that last red arrow on the Continuum\u00a9 below.\u00a0 Now, with commodity indexes right at critical support and precious metals not far from their own, the time is now if a match is going to be put to that dry old Straw Man and silver is going to out perform gold, inflation expectations barometers (TIPS vs. unprotected T bonds) are going to turn up and the Continuum is going to find support.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/tyx2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-26707 size-medium\" src=\"\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/tyx2-600x265.png\" alt=\"tyx\" width=\"600\" height=\"265\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>People argue over inflation\u2019s effects and the expectations thereof but the CPI, which is the ultimate measure of inflation\u2019s lagging effects, has never stopped to take a breather.\u00a0 2008\u2032s liquidation of the system?\u00a0 Child\u2019s play.\u00a0 Inflation, which is what the Fed has been hysterically promoting since 2007, will always manifest in rising prices somewhere.\u00a0 As luck would have it, this time it is manifesting in the stock market to a greater degree than the CPI.\u00a0 \u2018All good!\u2019 think our policy makers if the right prices are rising.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/cpi.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-26705 size-medium\" src=\"\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/cpi-600x750.png\" alt=\"cpi\" width=\"600\" height=\"750\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>30 year yields vs. the CPI show a bond market that refuses to do anything, over decades, as consumer prices rise.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/tyx.cpi_.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-26709 size-medium\" src=\"\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/tyx.cpi_-600x265.png\" alt=\"tyx.cpi\" width=\"600\" height=\"265\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The 10 year is docile as well, apparently seeing deflation right around the next corner.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/tnx.cpi_.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-26710 size-medium\" src=\"\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/tnx.cpi_-600x265.png\" alt=\"tnx.cpi\" width=\"600\" height=\"265\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The 5\u2032s and 2\u2032s also are on high alert for deflation.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/fvx.cpi_.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-26711 size-medium\" src=\"\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/fvx.cpi_-600x265.png\" alt=\"fvx.cpi\" width=\"600\" height=\"265\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/2yr.cpi_.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-26712 size-medium\" src=\"\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/2yr.cpi_-600x265.png\" alt=\"2yr.cpi\" width=\"600\" height=\"265\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>This is the response of our majestic Treasury bond market, former home of the legendary Bond Vigilantes, who would rise up against inflation.\u00a0 The problem is, considering the decades that the Continuum has been in a downtrend while prices rise, rise and rise some more, I think that (the bond vigilantes) was just another Wall Street Promotion in a long and storied line of them; Great Rotation being the latest.<\/p>\n<p>Moving on, despite all of the intellectualizing by various Fed members, media and the best and brightest in the financial services complex alike, the picture below is a view of exactly what the Fed is doing to combat rising prices over the various cycles.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/fed.cpi_1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-26714 size-medium\" src=\"\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/fed.cpi_1-600x265.png\" alt=\"ffr.cpi\" width=\"600\" height=\"265\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>At least Greenspan put up a different kind of Straw Man of his own in 2004, pretending to fight inflationary fire before that whole thing folded in on itself and liquidated in 2008.\u00a0 No matter what the eggheads in Jackson Hole come up with this week, they are inflating and for the time being, the right assets are benefiting.<\/p>\n<p>But the Fed Funds vs. CPI shows they don\u2019t give a damned about a secular rise in consumer prices per the admittedly dramatic \u2018portrait view\u2019 of chart #2 above.\u00a0 Why?\u00a0 Find out why the deflation Straw Man has been stood up in the first place over all these years, and we\u2019d probably have the answer to that question.<\/p>\n<p><em>* From Wikipedia\u2026<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>A straw man is a common type of argument and is an informal fallacy based on the misrepresentation of an opponent\u2019s argument. To be successful, a straw man argument requires that the audience be ignorant or uninformed of the original argument.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>The so-called typical \u201cattacking a straw man\u201d argument creates the illusion of having completely refuted or defeated an opponent\u2019s proposition by covertly replacing it with a different proposition (i.e., \u201cstand up a straw man\u201d) and then to refute or defeat that false argument (\u201cknock down a straw man\u201d) instead of the original proposition.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>This technique has been used throughout history in polemical debate, particularly in arguments about highly charged emotional issues where a fiery, entertaining \u201cbattle\u201d and the defeat of an \u201cenemy\u201d may be more valued than critical thinking or understanding both sides of the issue.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.biiwii.com\">Biiwii.com<\/a> | <a href=\"http:\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/about-nftrh\/\">Notes From the Rabbit Hole<\/a> | <a href=\"http:\/\/biiwii.com\/wordpress\/about-nftrh\/free-eletter\/\">Free eLetter<\/a> | <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/follow?original_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fbiiwii.com%2Fwordpress%2F%3Fp%3D26704%26preview%3Dtrue&amp;region=follow_link&amp;screen_name=BiiwiiNFTRH&amp;tw_p=followbutton&amp;variant=2.0\">Twitter<\/a><\/p>\n<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on the_content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>No matter the debates over inflation vs. deflation, increasing employment vs. sound monetary policy or systemic health vs. fragility (and whatever else is flying around in Jackson Hole this week), the CPI marches onward and upward.\u00a0 That is the system and it is predicated on creating enough money out of thin air while inflation signals [&hellip;]<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":41,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[6632,6432,6633,4912,829,4273,6630,1750,5092,4785,6631],"class_list":["post-28981","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general","tag-10-year-treasury-notes","tag-30-year-treasury-bonds","tag-5-year-treasury-notes","tag-consumer-price-index-cpi","tag-deflation","tag-gary-tanashian","tag-increasing-employment-vs-sound-monetary-policy","tag-inflation","tag-nftrh","tag-notes-from-the-rabbit-hole","tag-systemic-health-vs-fragility"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.4 (Yoast SEO v23.6) - 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