{"id":31059,"date":"2014-12-29T14:00:22","date_gmt":"2014-12-29T19:00:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=31059"},"modified":"2014-12-29T13:13:33","modified_gmt":"2014-12-29T18:13:33","slug":"semiconductor-equipment-sector-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2014\/12\/semiconductor-equipment-sector-update\/","title":{"rendered":"Semiconductor Equipment Sector Update"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>By: Gary Tanashian of Biiwii.com<\/p>\n<p>NFTRH 322 covered the usual range of markets, from US to global stocks to precious metals and commodities to currencies and indicators.\u00a0 It also included an extended economic discussion about the realities of the strong US economy and its dangerous underpinnings.<\/p>\n<p>The economic segment began with this look at the Semiconductor Equipment sector, which was our first indicator on economic strength exactly 2 years ago and will be an initial indicator on economic deceleration when the time is right.<\/p>\n<p>Excerpted from the December 21 edition of <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/nftrh.wordpress.com\/nftrh-premium\/\" target=\"_blank\">Notes From the Rabbit Hole<\/a><\/strong>, NFTRH 322:<\/p>\n<p>Checking the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.semi.org\/en\/node\/53626?id=highlights\" target=\"_blank\">Semiconductor Book-to-Bill ratio<\/a> (b2b), this all-important forward looker came in pretty decent for November.\u00a0 Per the data we reviewed in an update last week, the bookings, which is the most important component, was pretty good at $1.22 Billion compared to October\u2019s $1.1 Billion.<\/p>\n<p>The graph from <a href=\"http:\/\/www.semi.org\/en\/\" target=\"_blank\">SEMI<\/a> does not include the November data.\u00a0 I added an arrow showing the current level of the b2b.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-30471 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/nftrh.files.wordpress.com\/2014\/12\/semi-b2b.png?w=474\" alt=\"semi.b2b\" width=\"410\" height=\"290\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Our original graph is marked up as well to show the longer trend.\u00a0 There is a spike up happening and this may or may not be related to an overall year-end sales spike in some high end capital equipment that happens like clockwork at the end of each year in Machine Tools (ref. sales graph below).\u00a0 I do not have the level of knowledge about the Semiconductor Equipment industry to speak authoritatively about its more structural capital spending cycles.\u00a0 So this is just a possibility to consider.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-30472 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/nftrh.files.wordpress.com\/2014\/12\/b2b.png?w=474\" alt=\"b2b\" width=\"430\" height=\"242\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Here is the data once again from <a href=\"http:\/\/www.edadata.com\/resources\/industryinsight\/\" target=\"_blank\">EDA Industry Insight<\/a> that pretty much allows us to set our clocks by the year-end Machine Tool (capital equipment) sales figures, which are due to tax considerations by fence sitting buyers.\u00a0 Machine Tools are so far doing exactly what we expected into year-end.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/nftrh.files.wordpress.com\/2014\/12\/mach-tools.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-30473 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/nftrh.files.wordpress.com\/2014\/12\/mach-tools.png?w=711&amp;h=260\" alt=\"mach.tools\" width=\"474\" height=\"173\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The bottom line on this exercise is that in order to forecast something negative for the economy (and hence the stock market, insofar as [the market] reflects the economy) we need to start seeing data degenerate in forward-looking items.\u00a0 The year-end period is stable and the back-lookers like \u2018Jobs\u2019, GDP, etc. are just fine.\u00a0 We will head into 2015 as always, watching what is happening, not what we project in our minds to be happening.<\/p>\n<p>As we close out 2014, a policy-stoked US economy is still humming along.<\/p>\n<p>From an earlier segment in the report:<\/p>\n<p>We should not discount the significance of the scary test of major support [by the SOX index] in October. That, along with the associated negative hype as Microchip Semi\u2019s weak guidance<strong>*<\/strong> was broadcast far and wide, could actually end up being the fuel for a blow off scenario [1].<\/p>\n<p><em>* As you know, media hype is a source of frustration for your letter writer because he tries to be honest and hype-free in taking on the responsibility of writing about markets and the economy for you.\u00a0 That is why you endure me calling the \u2018Fiscal Cliff\u2019 drama from 2012 a Kabuki Dance, calling the Eric Sprott interview (Ebola may lift gold and silver prices!) in the Gold Report a disgrace\u2026 Cyprus, Greece, Ukraine\u2026 the media (and certain lazy analysis) get a hold of these things and try to use people\u2019s emotions to promote viewpoints.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>The latest example was when supposed Semiconductor bellwether Microchip Semi released unpleasant guidance and the market freaked out [and SOX tanked].\u00a0 We called it hype at the time and what do you know?\u00a0 Now they are out with a brightened outlook\u2026<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/global-semiconductor-outlook-brightens-microchip-132017330.html\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Global Semiconductor Outlook Brightens, Microchip Sees Sales Rebound\u00a0<\/strong><\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Chief Executive Steve Sanghi said the company has seen an improvement in bookings and billings since October.\u00a0 \u201cWe are now even more confident that the small correction that we experienced in the September quarter is behind us,\u201d he said.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>You just cannot make this stuff up.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>[1] We are not predicting a stock market\/Semi sector blow off, but\u00a0 are open to its possibility.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Subscribe to <a href=\"http:\/\/nftrh.com\/nftrh-premium\/\" target=\"_blank\">NFTRH Premium<\/a> for your 25-35 page weekly report, interim updates (including Key ETF charts) and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas or the <a href=\"http:\/\/nftrh.com\/free-eletter\/\" target=\"_blank\">free eLetter<\/a> for an introduction to our work. Or simply keep up to date with plenty of public content at <a href=\"http:\/\/nftrh.com\" target=\"_blank\">NFTRH.com<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/biiwii.com\" target=\"_blank\">Biiwii.com<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on the_content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By: Gary Tanashian of Biiwii.com NFTRH 322 covered the usual range of markets, from US to global stocks to precious metals and commodities to currencies and indicators.\u00a0 It also included an extended economic discussion about the realities of the strong US economy and its dangerous underpinnings. The economic segment began with this look at the [&hellip;]<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":41,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1840,4273,5092,4785,7034,7035,5050],"class_list":["post-31059","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general","tag-biiwiicom","tag-gary-tanashian","tag-nftrh","tag-notes-from-the-rabbit-hole","tag-semiconductor-equipment-sector","tag-steve-sanghi","tag-u-s-economy"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.4 (Yoast SEO v23.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Semiconductor Equipment Sector Update - INO.com Trader&#039;s Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2014\/12\/semiconductor-equipment-sector-update\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Semiconductor Equipment Sector Update - INO.com Trader&#039;s Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By: Gary Tanashian of Biiwii.com NFTRH 322 covered the usual range of markets, from US to global stocks to precious metals and commodities to currencies and indicators.\u00a0 It also included an extended economic discussion about the realities of the strong US economy and its dangerous underpinnings. 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