{"id":37548,"date":"2016-02-20T08:00:36","date_gmt":"2016-02-20T13:00:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=37548"},"modified":"2016-02-19T22:05:30","modified_gmt":"2016-02-20T03:05:30","slug":"various-markets-weekly-views","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2016\/02\/various-markets-weekly-views\/","title":{"rendered":"Various Markets; Weekly Views"},"content":{"rendered":"

By: Gary Tanashian of NFTRH<\/a><\/p>\n

It occurs to me that in public writing I tend to bludgeon people with macro fundamentals (like gold vs. positively correlated markets, yield relationships and even confidence in global policy makers), market indicators (VIX, Equity Put\/Call, Gold-Silver ratio, Sentiment, Participation, etc.) and other views beneath the surface of things.\u00a0So much so that I sometimes forget that people might like to see simple nominal charting as a frame of reference.<\/p>\n

We update charts like these every week in NFTRH<\/a>, but I have done relatively few for public review.\u00a0So here it is, a simple weekly chart update of various markets, with very limited commentary interference from me.<\/p>\n

US Stock Market<\/strong><\/p>\n

As you can see, US indexes have so far held critical support.\u00a0Best projected case would be a bounce to SPX 2000 (+\/-).\u00a0The market continues to roll over on the intermediate trend as of now.<\/p>\n

\"spx,<\/p>\n

If the above is suspect to bearish, the broader US indexes are just bearish.\u00a0Lower lows and lower highs abound and resistance is noted.<\/p>\n

\"wlsh\"<\/p>\n

Global Stock Markets<\/strong><\/p>\n

Every week we review a broad global landscape, but for the purposes of this post we narrow it down to Europe, Toronto and Japan.\u00a0Each market is in an intermediate downtrend.\u00a0TSX is working on a cyclical bear.\u00a0They are all trying to bounce from support areas and they are all bearish until they break those trends.<\/p>\n

\"euro<\/p>\n

Commodities<\/strong><\/p>\n

This chart is so simple.\u00a0Commodities are bearish and have been for years.<\/p>\n

\"crb\"<\/p>\n

Despite the hype that crops up occasionally in these two headline commodities, they are marching along in bearish trends.\u00a0We have had a technical target on Doctor Copper of $1.50\/lb. going back years now (by monthly charts).<\/p>\n

\"crude<\/p>\n

Bonds<\/strong><\/p>\n

We had a nice NFTRH+<\/a> trade on TLT prior to its pattern breakout and also highlighted TIP from a technical standpoint as it settled to support.\u00a0This goes with some worthwhile fundamental analysis on these bonds by Michael Ashton: No Strategic Reason to Own Nominal Bonds Now<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"tip<\/p>\n

Long-term bonds are rising (yields tanking) even as T Bills continue to reflect the \u2018Fed Funds\u2019 rate hike stance.<\/p>\n

\"tbill.10yr\"<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a low interest rate world and NIRP hysterics are in full swing.<\/p>\n

\"bonds\"<\/p>\n

Junk bonds, which people flocked to during the risk \u2018on\u2019 phase that ended in 2015, remain very bearish and a risk \u2018off\u2019 stance is appropriate.<\/p>\n

\"hyg\"<\/p>\n

Precious Metals<\/strong><\/p>\n

We use many different charts over different time frames to look at this now-favored (risk \u2018off\u2019\/counter-cyclical) sector. Here is the simplest chart of gold I can imagine.\u00a0The EMA 75 was our guide saying \u201cBEAR\u201d for years.\u00a0Hence, that is very important support now (coinciding with a 38% Fib retrace level), eh?<\/p>\n

\"gold\"<\/p>\n

Silver however, is still dealing with its comparable resistance in the form of the EMA 55 and the October 2015 high.<\/p>\n

\"silver\"<\/p>\n

HUI, like gold, made an important move above the moving average that defined its bear market (EMA 55).\u00a0It also popped above the October 2015 highs. As you can see, 140 is very important support for Huey now.\u00a0It has already been tested once.<\/p>\n

\"hui<\/p>\n

Currencies<\/strong><\/p>\n

We review currency pairs on occasion even though FOREX is not something I am much interested in.\u00a0I am interested in what is going on with USD-Yen, however.\u00a0Yen is now the risk \u2018off\u2019 currency on the other side of the global trade.\u00a0This is a notable breakdown.<\/p>\n

\"usdjpy\"<\/p>\n

Note:<\/strong> Several \u2018USD vs.\u2019 pairs were updated yesterday<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n

Here is the cavalcade of currencies chart we often use in NFTRH<\/a>. The chart does the talking.<\/p>\n

\"currencies\"<\/p>\n

Within the currency realm, we have been following risk \u2018off\u2019 gold vs. relative risk \u2018off\u2019 currency, Swiss Franc, to gauge the market\u2019s confidence in currencies overall. Gold broke out vs. Swissy and that confidence has taken a hit.<\/p>\n

\"gold<\/p>\n

Bottom Line<\/strong><\/p>\n

Okay, so there were a couple indicator(ish) items included.\u00a0If I were to put a \u2018bottom line\u2019 on a world of asset markets I\u2019d call it a risk \u2018off\u2019 global backdrop.\u00a0Stock markets are bearish but bouncing, commodities are bearish (in the absence of overt inflation signals), bonds still see deflation, but we can anticipate a change to an inflationary issue out on the horizon.\u00a0The gold sector is doing exactly what it should do in this environment; getting bullish.\u00a0Currencies are reflecting a global waning of confidence in policy makers.<\/p>\n

For reference see Gold\u2019s Macrocosm: The Planets Align<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Subscribe to NFTRH Premium<\/a> for your 25-35 page weekly report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas or the free eLetter<\/a> for an introduction to our work. Or simply keep up to date with plenty of public content at NFTRH.com<\/a> and Biiwii.com<\/a>. Also, you can follow via Twitter @BiiwiiNFTRH<\/a>.
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By: Gary Tanashian of NFTRH It occurs to me that in public writing I tend to bludgeon people with macro fundamentals (like gold vs. positively correlated markets, yield relationships and even confidence in global policy makers), market indicators (VIX, Equity Put\/Call, Gold-Silver ratio, Sentiment, Participation, etc.) and other views beneath the surface of things.\u00a0So much […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":41,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1840,52,3438,484,3488,4273,8316,2926,5092,4785,307,102,5720,7431],"class_list":["post-37548","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general","tag-biiwiicom","tag-bonds","tag-chart-analysis","tag-commodities","tag-currencies","tag-gary-tanashian","tag-global-stock-market","tag-market-update","tag-nftrh","tag-notes-from-the-rabbit-hole","tag-precious-metals","tag-technical-analysis","tag-u-s-stock-market","tag-weekly-charts"],"yoast_head":"\nVarious Markets; 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