{"id":39226,"date":"2016-07-02T08:00:48","date_gmt":"2016-07-02T12:00:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=39226"},"modified":"2016-07-01T13:52:38","modified_gmt":"2016-07-01T17:52:38","slug":"a-path-toward-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2016\/07\/a-path-toward-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"A Path Toward Inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"

Yes, it\u2019s another inflation<\/em> post going up even as inflation expectations are in the dumper and casino patrons just cannot get enough of Treasury and Government bonds yielding 0%, near 0% and below 0%.<\/p>\n

Feel free to tune out the lunatic inflation theories you\u2019ve found at nftrh.com<\/a> over the last few weeks.\u00a0 But if by chance you do want to look, here\u2019s a visual path we have taken to arrive at the barn door, behind which are all those inflated chickens, roosting and waiting.\u00a0 All sorts of animals will get out of the barn if macro signals activate.<\/p>\n

Gold led silver ever since the last inflationary blow off and blow out in early 2011.\u00a0 The gold-silver ratio rose through global deflation, US Goldilocks, good times and bad.\u00a0 There was<\/em> no inflation problem, anywhere.\u00a0 Then early this year silver jerked leadership away from gold and now for the second time the ratio of gold to silver has broken below the moving average that has defined its trend (it did so in 2012 as well).<\/p>\n

\"gsr\"<\/p>\n

Why is this significant?\u00a0 Well, try on 2010 for size (see chart below).\u00a0 I for one happily managed the gold-silver ratio up spike in 2008, buying gold miners as they crashed.\u00a0 As gold (monetary, risk \u2018off\u2019) topped vs. silver (commodity\/monetary, relatively risk \u2018on\u2019) we expanded the bullish view to commodities as well.\u00a0 But then came the bottoming pattern that was not a bottoming pattern.\u00a0 To this day I believe that the macro was preparing for a next leg up and some serious new destruction before Ben Bernanke, the \u201cHero\u201d, sprung into action and ruined the beautiful Inverted H&S pattern that long-time NFTRH<\/a> subscribers will remember me making a big deal about at the time.<\/p>\n

The ratio got destroyed as the Bernanke Fed jammed a risk \u2018on\u2019 phase into gear with QE 2 and a great money making phase was on.\u00a0 Casino patrons, momos, black boxes and substance abusers could not help<\/em> but make money, gurus pimped everything from Rare Earth Elements to Lithium to Copper.<\/p>\n

\"gsr2\"<\/p>\n

But then came the spring of 2011.\u00a0 Silver blew out and a dark phase, for most people not calling themselves US stock market bulls, ensued.\u00a0 You can see the end of the good times in 2011 on both charts above as Gold-Silver bottomed and turned up.\u00a0 The ratio has risen ever since.\u00a0 If \u2013 and it\u2019s still an if \u2013 Gold-Silver breaks down again and inflation expectations rise, a large part of the world is going to get caught huddling in worthless paper yielding little, nothing or less than nothing even as deflation is indicated to have blown off.\u00a0 Here is the view of \u2018inflation protected\u2019 Treasury bonds vs. nominal T bonds.<\/p>\n

\"tip.tlt\"<\/p>\n

FOMC fretted about the lack of inflation and poor (backward looking) Payrolls, among other reasons for remaining dovish at its June meeting.\u00a0 Since then we have added the perfectly timed Brexit Theater to the mix and conventional market participants are firmly in line, buying debt paper up to bubble proportions.<\/p>\n

With this absolute rejection of inflation by global casino patrons, TLT (long-term Treasury) has been going gang busters pulling in frightened money the world over.<\/p>\n

\"tlt\"<\/p>\n

Here is the monthly view of the 30 year Treasury yield \u2018Continuum\u2019 \u00a9.\u00a0 This paper actually pays some yield, unlike some of its fellows in the developed world.\u00a0 When deflation finishes blowing off, this will bottom and turn up with a new \u2018inflation trade\u2019.\u00a0 One day we may look to the limiter for the end of the next inflationary speculation phase but that, as you can see, is a long way off.\u00a0 Notice the red arrow at spring 2011?\u00a0 That is exactly why I call the EMA 100 \u201cthe limiter\u201d \u00a9.\u00a0 It worked perfectly in conjunction with the upturn in gold vs. silver to signal the end of the last great party.<\/p>\n

\"tyx\"<\/p>\n

Moving on, with a hat tip to Brad Zigler<\/a> per a previous post (Inflation is Brewing<\/a>), commodities have been out performing the US stock market lately.\u00a0 Here\u2019s my newly created chart (of SPY-GCC, idea appropriated from Mr. Zigler).\u00a0 Among other things, one message of this chart (assuming it goes on to change trend) is that though US stocks may not crash \u2013 and indeed, could even resume rising \u2013 Goldilocks (a condition where global deflation acted to suppress inflation signals in the US from 2012 to 2015) will have no place in the next phase.<\/p>\n

\"gcc.spy\"<\/p>\n

We have been viewing the progression from deflationary to (would-be) inflationary with the Greenspan era blueprint in mind; where first, gold and gold miners got bid amid a stock market bear (still in play for a cycle, although the market had undone a lot of technical damage before the inflammatory and emotional Brexit drama played out), with silver and commodities catching on later and leading the first great \u2018inflation trade\u2019 of the new millennium.\u00a0 You can by the way, see where that one topped out in 2007 right at red arrow #3 on the Continuum chart above.<\/p>\n

These are the financial markets and anything can happen, especially with US and global policy makers losing the firm grip of confidence with which they held casino patrons transfixed into 2015.\u00a0 But as a speculator you want to see something before the overwhelming majority sees it.\u00a0 As I have tried to illustrate above, I see something and NFTRH<\/a> has been fleshing it out every week.\u00a0 Brexit was a transitory event that has helped keep the majority looking in the wrong direction.\u00a0 That\u2019s good for you if you agree with my premise as laid out above.<\/p>\n

Inflation is man-made, and it is promoted against the natural global deflationary force that has been trying to address the excess for the better part of 20 years now.\u00a0 While inflation may or may not one day end the system (in a Misesian \u201ccrack up boom\u201d), it can be expected to periodically burp up phases that benefit speculators willing to go against the herd.\u00a0 Chances are such a phase is brewing now.\u00a0 We\u2019ll of course update to hopefully affirm the analysis but if need be, revise, along the way.<\/p>\n

Subscribe to NFTRH Premium<\/a> for your 25-35 page weekly report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas or the free eLetter<\/a> for an introduction to our work. Or simply keep up to date with plenty of public content at NFTRH.com<\/a> and Biiwii.com<\/a>. Also, you can follow via Twitter @BiiwiiNFTRH<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yes, it\u2019s another inflation post going up even as inflation expectations are in the dumper and casino patrons just cannot get enough of Treasury and Government bonds yielding 0%, near 0% and below 0%. Feel free to tune out the lunatic inflation theories you\u2019ve found at nftrh.com over the last few weeks.\u00a0 But if by […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":41,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1840,4273,5519,8498,1750,8461,5092,4785,6613,6889,8499],"class_list":["post-39226","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general","tag-biiwiicom","tag-gary-tanashian","tag-gold-forexxauusdo","tag-goldsilver-charts","tag-inflation","tag-ishares-20-year-treasury-bond-fund-nasdaqtlt","tag-nftrh","tag-notes-from-the-rabbit-hole","tag-silver-forexxagusdo","tag-spdr-sp-500-etf-pacfspy","tag-treasury-yield-30-years-tyx"],"yoast_head":"\nA Path Toward Inflation - INO.com Trader's Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2016\/07\/a-path-toward-inflation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A Path Toward Inflation - INO.com Trader's Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Yes, it\u2019s another inflation post going up even as inflation expectations are in the dumper and casino patrons just cannot get enough of Treasury and Government bonds yielding 0%, near 0% and below 0%. Feel free to tune out the lunatic inflation theories you\u2019ve found at nftrh.com over the last few weeks.\u00a0 But if by […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2016\/07\/a-path-toward-inflation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"INO.com Trader's Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/inocom\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2016-07-02T12:00:48+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2016-07-01T17:52:38+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/nftrh.files.wordpress.com\/2016\/06\/gsr1.png?w=550\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"The INO.com Team\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"The INO.com Team\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2016\/07\/a-path-toward-inflation\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2016\/07\/a-path-toward-inflation\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"The INO.com Team\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/d86a8cce826b7bd105200d88bb28a280\"},\"headline\":\"A Path Toward Inflation\",\"datePublished\":\"2016-07-02T12:00:48+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2016-07-01T17:52:38+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2016\/07\/a-path-toward-inflation\/\"},\"wordCount\":1055,\"commentCount\":1,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2016\/07\/a-path-toward-inflation\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/nftrh.files.wordpress.com\/2016\/06\/gsr1.png?w=550\",\"keywords\":[\"biiwii.com\",\"Gary Tanashian\",\"Gold (FOREX:XAUUSDO)\",\"Gold\/Silver Charts\",\"inflation\",\"iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (NASDAQ:TLT)\",\"nftrh\",\"notes from the rabbit hole\",\"Silver (FOREX:XAGUSDO)\",\"SPDR S&P 500 ETF (PACF:SPY)\",\"Treasury Yield 30 Years (TYX)\"],\"articleSection\":[\"General\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2016\/07\/a-path-toward-inflation\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2016\/07\/a-path-toward-inflation\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2016\/07\/a-path-toward-inflation\/\",\"name\":\"A Path Toward Inflation - 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