{"id":39462,"date":"2016-07-19T16:30:11","date_gmt":"2016-07-19T20:30:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=39462"},"modified":"2016-07-19T15:49:20","modified_gmt":"2016-07-19T19:49:20","slug":"more-on-the-breadth-thrust-and-market-internals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2016\/07\/more-on-the-breadth-thrust-and-market-internals\/","title":{"rendered":"More on the 'Breadth Thrust' and Market Internals"},"content":{"rendered":"

By: Gary Tanashian of Biiwii.com<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

NFTRH<\/a> 404<\/strong> deviated from the usual format of widespread, in-depth coverage of US and global markets, precious metals and commodities in order to focus on two main themes.\u00a0 One was a view of building short-term risks in the gold market [possibly pending new rally highs] and the other of a developing bullish phase in the US stock market.\u00a0 We reproduce part of that segment here\u2026<\/p>\n

Ref. Breadth Thrust: Prelude to a Crash?<\/a> <\/strong>(July 12)<\/p>\n

Subscriber \u2018LN\u2019 presented a view of the impending \u2018breadth thrust\u2019 signal and we both came to the same conclusion; that this is ending action in the stock market. It is at once very bullish and very bearish, depending on time frames. Below is additional information per \u2018LN\u2019, who is a financial adviser and thus, not a casual observer. I would also note that both \u2018LN\u2019 and I have similar caveats about analogs from the past projecting to the future (they often do not do it well). But for reference (emphasis mine)\u2026<\/p>\n

\u201cI went back and looked at 1987 a little closer. I know the price action isn\u2019t going to be identical but I wanted to see if they rhyme at all.<\/em><\/p>\n

From the thrust on 1\/14\/87 stocks went higher for 2 months<\/strong> without much in the way of pullbacks. Only about 2% a couple of times. I looked at the Dow and SPX and they are about the same. I have a feeling the Dow was more important back then.<\/em><\/p>\n

Dow rallied 16% into March 26. Spx 15%. Then it started getting volatile<\/strong>. They declined 4 % in about a week and then rallied to a slightly higher high before an 8% correction. It didn\u2019t break out again until June.<\/em><\/p>\n

From the thrust day in 87 gold declined 7% and silver 5%, bottoming about a month after the thrust around February 18. From February 18 until around May 19 gold was up 23% and silver 75%<\/strong>!<\/em><\/p>\n

The gold\/silver ratio was 74 on the day of the thrust and was 50 on May 15<\/strong>.<\/em><\/p>\n

Oil declined about 14% from the thrust through February. It then rallied 35% to a peak in July.<\/em><\/p>\n

DXY was 100 on the thrust day and corrected 5% to 95 on May 4. It rallied back to 101 in August. So basically flat.<\/em><\/p>\n

So maybe we head higher until mid September when the elections get hot and heavy. The market gets volatile and then breaks out again after the elections<\/strong>.<\/em><\/p>\n

Gold and silver would bottom in about a month and rip higher from mid August up to the elections. Looking at a gold seasonality chart it appears to top in mid July and bottom late July to early August before ripping higher into October\/November<\/strong>.<\/em><\/p>\n

All of this seems to be setting up similar to 87<\/strong>.<\/em><\/p>\n

I\u2019ll be keeping a close eye on this.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

Even a mania has got to have some form of fundamental backing, whether real or imagined. In 1999 it was a story about the \u2018.com\u2019 rise vs. brick and mortar. Funny thing is that Amazon has proven the essence and vision of that story to be true, but there was so much hype and so many garbage companies built into it at the time that it could only fail.<\/p>\n

Today\u2019s mania, which I think the herd is just getting wind of, is that Brexit did not end the world, policy makers are looking to inflate (often competitively) at all costs and as we have been projecting for many weeks now, the US economy is not bad at all relative to expectations and perceptions of the majority.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s look at some economic and market internals, beginning at the beginning, which for us was the trend in Semiconductor Equipment. For newer subscribers, here is the most recent data for bookings, billings and book-to-bill for Semiconductor manufacturing and processing equipment (as supplied by companies like Applied Materials, Lam Research, MKS Instruments, Brooks Automation, etc.).<\/p>\n

\"b2b\"<\/p>\n

The book-to-bill is not what is important for our purposes; the bookings are the key forward looker. The positive trend began in March and the next data release is on July 21. I for one will be very interested in it because this was our first inkling that the building negativity on the US economy was looking the wrong way (backward).<\/p>\n

In Q4 2012 (we picked up on it in January 2013) Semi led the view of an oncoming economic bounce and then wouldn\u2019t you know, general manufacturing improved as well. This graph of the Markit Manufacturing PMI from Tradingeconomics.com<\/a> shows how manufacturing improved until the market began to get turbulent in 2014.<\/p>\n

\"manuf\"<\/p>\n

This is a good time to note that the positives we are discussing are short-term cyclical in nature. The growth manifests in spurts, which fits not only the above analog describing a short-term bull phase and eventual unwinding, but also is a commentary on volatile, erratic, policy-driven economies. It is not in any way organic, it is engineered.<\/p>\n

Moving on, economic data continue to be a mixed bag, but have started to improve lately, as we expected would be the case. From Yardeni.com<\/a> per the noted sources, here are a couple of views of the \u2018Economic Surprise\u2019 index with the S&P 500\u2019s price and P\/E. This is another view stating that those who have been predicting gloom in the face of recent market turbulence have been playing last year\u2019s game. The thing about surprises is that they are only surprises for those depending only on backward looking data.<\/p>\n

\"econsurprise1\"<\/p>\n

\"econsurprise2\"<\/p>\n

Transitioning from economic to market signals, let\u2019s look at recent developments in the Investors Intelligence data. The trend followers in the newsletter writer community have finally begun to get back on the bullish bandwagon as bulls climbed back above 50% for the first time since early 2015. The \u2018correction camp\u2019 shows a plunge in those expecting or positioned for a correction. Investors Intelligence is one data point in support of the view that markets can take a short-term negative reaction at any time now.<\/p>\n

\"investorsintel\"<\/p>\n

But beyond the short-term, the view remains flat out bullish. Beyond the intermediate-term? These are the policy stoked modern financial markets and I do not have a positive view beyond the intermediate-term. Too many distortions and variables.<\/p>\n

Circling back to the \u2018breadth thrust\u2019 discussion, this is simply a picture of increasing market participation both in breadth and in volume. It is almost as if today\u2019s casino patrons are finally saying to themselves, after Brexit failed to bring on the financial Armageddon that it seemed a majority expected, \u2018nothing can kill this beast\u2019<\/em>.<\/p>\n

In other words, it\u2019s a capitulation of the bears. Without healthy levels of shorting, a market can get very bullish (especially amidst short covering) but in losing the grind of bearish participation, markets only know one way, up. That would be a final suck in of Mom, Pop and various other holdouts who just cannot take it anymore, after watching the bulls remain impervious to negative events, time after time after time.<\/p>\n

The NYSE Advance\/Decline is shown as a bullish indicator at the bottom of the standard multi-index broad market chart each week. Let\u2019s blow it up a bit and review. NYAD consolidated in 2011 and broke upward. It did the same in 2013. In 2016, after an extended and grinding bearish phase in the markets, it once again broke upward. This has acted as a bullish forebear to the \u2018breadth thrust\u2019 story that is now gaining traction.<\/p>\n

\"nyad\"<\/p>\n

This very detailed segment went on to review Participation indexes, New Highs\/New Lows and more developments in the market sentiment backdrop.\u00a0 We also wrapped up with a clear \u2018bottom line\u2019 view of what is in play now from short, intermediate and long-term perspectives.\u00a0 We\u2019ll have to clip the public post here but I do want to include a key chart (the S&P 500 weekly) that we have used for months now to gauge bull potential after the previous bear signal was negated.<\/p>\n

\"spx.wk\"<\/p>\n

Part of the analysis that accompanied the chart\u2026<\/p>\n

\u201cYou can see a near cross of the moving averages in 1998 in reaction to those events [Long-Term Capital & Asian Contagion]. Dial ahead 12+ years and you can see our \u20182011 comp\u2019, which did cross the moving averages down before whipsawing them back up. The 2011 market activity looks remarkably similar to 1998 and today\u2019s up turned moving average condition is similar to 2011.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Subscribe to NFTRH Premium<\/a> for your 25-35 page weekly report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas or the free eLetter<\/a> for an introduction to our work. Or simply keep up to date with plenty of public content at NFTRH.com<\/a> and Biiwii.com<\/a>. Also, you can follow via Twitter @BiiwiiNFTRH<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By: Gary Tanashian of Biiwii.com NFTRH 404 deviated from the usual format of widespread, in-depth coverage of US and global markets, precious metals and commodities in order to focus on two main themes.\u00a0 One was a view of building short-term risks in the gold market [possibly pending new rally highs] and the other of a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":41,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1840,8319,8519,4273,5092,4785,6319,6904],"class_list":["post-39462","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general","tag-biiwiicom","tag-brexit","tag-economic-surprise-index","tag-gary-tanashian","tag-nftrh","tag-notes-from-the-rabbit-hole","tag-sp-500-cmesp500","tag-semiconductor-equipment"],"yoast_head":"\nMore on the 'Breadth Thrust' and Market Internals - INO.com Trader's Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2016\/07\/more-on-the-breadth-thrust-and-market-internals\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"More on the 'Breadth Thrust' and Market Internals - INO.com Trader's Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By: Gary Tanashian of Biiwii.com NFTRH 404 deviated from the usual format of widespread, in-depth coverage of US and global markets, precious metals and commodities in order to focus on two main themes.\u00a0 One was a view of building short-term risks in the gold market [possibly pending new rally highs] and the other of a […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2016\/07\/more-on-the-breadth-thrust-and-market-internals\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"INO.com Trader's Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/inocom\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2016-07-19T20:30:11+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2016-07-19T19:49:20+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/nftrh.files.wordpress.com\/2016\/07\/b2b.png?w=550\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"The INO.com Team\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"The INO.com Team\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"7 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2016\/07\/more-on-the-breadth-thrust-and-market-internals\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2016\/07\/more-on-the-breadth-thrust-and-market-internals\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"The INO.com Team\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/d86a8cce826b7bd105200d88bb28a280\"},\"headline\":\"More on the 'Breadth Thrust' and Market Internals\",\"datePublished\":\"2016-07-19T20:30:11+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2016-07-19T19:49:20+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2016\/07\/more-on-the-breadth-thrust-and-market-internals\/\"},\"wordCount\":1433,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2016\/07\/more-on-the-breadth-thrust-and-market-internals\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/nftrh.files.wordpress.com\/2016\/07\/b2b.png?w=550\",\"keywords\":[\"biiwii.com\",\"Brexit\",\"Economic Surprise Index\",\"Gary Tanashian\",\"nftrh\",\"notes from the rabbit hole\",\"S&P 500 (CME:SP500)\",\"Semiconductor equipment\"],\"articleSection\":[\"General\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2016\/07\/more-on-the-breadth-thrust-and-market-internals\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2016\/07\/more-on-the-breadth-thrust-and-market-internals\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2016\/07\/more-on-the-breadth-thrust-and-market-internals\/\",\"name\":\"More on the 'Breadth Thrust' and Market Internals - 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