{"id":40096,"date":"2016-09-20T15:00:44","date_gmt":"2016-09-20T19:00:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=40096"},"modified":"2016-09-20T13:52:27","modified_gmt":"2016-09-20T17:52:27","slug":"gold-vs-pre-fomc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2016\/09\/gold-vs-pre-fomc\/","title":{"rendered":"'Gold vs.', Pre-FOMC"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>By: Gary Tanashian of <a href=\"http:\/\/biiwii.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">biiwii.com<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>We are well along in the precious metals correction and have downside targets for gold, silver and the miners.\u00a0 In order for that to be a \u2018buy\u2019, the sector and macro fundamentals will need to be in order.\u00a0 Some of those are represented by the gold ratio charts vs. various assets and markets.\u00a0 Below are two important ones.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Gold vs. Stock Markets<\/strong> has been correcting the big macro change to the upside since leading the entire global market relief phase (potentially out of the grips of global deflation) earlier in the year.\u00a0 A hold of these moving averages, generally speaking, keeps a key gold sector fundamental in play as the implication is that conventional casino patrons are choosing gold over their traditional go-to assets, stocks.\u00a0 A breakdown from the moving averages and it\u2019s back to Pallookaville for the gold <em>\u201ccommunity\u201d<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Despite gold having topped out (in nominal terms) months ago, the gold vs. stock markets indicators are intact.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/nftrh.files.wordpress.com\/2016\/09\/au-stocks3.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-50046 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/nftrh.files.wordpress.com\/2016\/09\/au-stocks3.png?w=840\" alt=\"gold vs. stock markets\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Gold vs. Commodities<\/strong> remains very interesting.\u00a0 The economy is okay (the way Goldilocks likes her porridge, not too hot or cold) and that can keep the currently flat commodity sector stable at least.\u00a0 But with gold\u2019s breakdown vs. the two commodity-ish precious metals, silver and palladium, an early indication of a coming inflationary phase is still in play.\u00a0 If the economy holds up, other more positively correlated commodities like industrial metals and oil could get bid vs. gold, signaling a Greenspan era style \u2018inflation trade\u2019.\u00a0 This would likely happen while gold, like the sun, also rises (e.g. Greenspan).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/nftrh.files.wordpress.com\/2016\/09\/au-commod1.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-50045 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/nftrh.files.wordpress.com\/2016\/09\/au-commod1.png?w=840\" alt=\"au-commod\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Last week we got CPI data that were not friendly to the case of FOMC doves.\u00a0 While economic data continue to be spotty, inflation data remain firm in a persistent though unspectacular way (for the best breakdown I know of, check out <a href=\"http:\/\/biiwii.com\/wp\/2016\/09\/16\/post-cpi-5\/\" target=\"_blank\">Michael Ashton\u2019s observations on CPI<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, as the hawks, doves and wafflers do their thing here are the odds of a Fed rate hike through the rest of the year, courtesy of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">CME Group<\/a> and the Fed Funds futures.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/nftrh.files.wordpress.com\/2016\/09\/fomcsept.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-50047 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/nftrh.files.wordpress.com\/2016\/09\/fomcsept.png?w=840\" alt=\"fomc cme september\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/nftrh.files.wordpress.com\/2016\/09\/fomcnov.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-50048 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/nftrh.files.wordpress.com\/2016\/09\/fomcnov.png?w=840\" alt=\"fomc cme november\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/nftrh.files.wordpress.com\/2016\/09\/fomcdec.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-50049 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/nftrh.files.wordpress.com\/2016\/09\/fomcdec.png?w=840\" alt=\"fomc cme december\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The market expects them to wait until December and that is what will probably come to be (making an assumption that all remains economically and financially symmetrical in the interim).\u00a0 But the definition of surprise is \u201can unexpected or astonishing event, fact or thing: <em>the announcement was a complete surprise<\/em>.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But I have held out hope in the past that FOMC would seek to address spiraling Healthcare, Real Estate and Services costs throughout the economy and throw a bone to savers and non-risk takers to boot.\u00a0 So far\u2026 cue the crickets.\u00a0 It has been all about keeping risk takers, speculators and asset owners nice and comfy.<\/p>\n<p>Back on the \u2018Gold vs.\u2019 charts, their very blunt and general implication \u2013 especially gold vs. stocks, bonds and currencies (the latter two not shown in this post, but each very intact) \u2013 is a waning of confidence in official policy clownishness.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/nftrh.files.wordpress.com\/2016\/03\/clowncar.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-37720 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/nftrh.files.wordpress.com\/2016\/03\/clowncar.png?w=840\" alt=\"clown car\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Subscribe to <a href=\"https:\/\/nftrh.com\/nftrh-premium\/\" target=\"_blank\">NFTRH Premium<\/a> for your 30-45 page weekly report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas or the <a href=\"https:\/\/nftrh.com\/free-eletter\/\" target=\"_blank\">free eLetter<\/a> for an introduction to our work. Or simply keep up to date with plenty of public content at <a href=\"http:\/\/nftrh.com\" target=\"_blank\">NFTRH.com<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/biiwii.com\" target=\"_blank\">Biiwii.com<\/a>. Also, you can follow via Twitter <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/follow?original_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fnftrh.com%2Ftestimonials%2F%C2%AEion=follow_link&amp;screen_name=BiiwiiNFTRH&amp;tw_p=followbutton\" target=\"_blank\">@BiiwiiNFTRH<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/stocktwits.com\/nftrh\" target=\"_blank\">StockTwits<\/a> or <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/nftrh\/YDgV\" target=\"_blank\">RSS<\/a>.<\/p>\n<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on the_content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By: Gary Tanashian of biiwii.com We are well along in the precious metals correction and have downside targets for gold, silver and the miners.\u00a0 In order for that to be a \u2018buy\u2019, the sector and macro fundamentals will need to be in order.\u00a0 Some of those are represented by the gold ratio charts vs. various [&hellip;]<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":41,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1840,6824,8451,4273,2567,8587,6482,5092,4785,5442],"class_list":["post-40096","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general","tag-biiwiicom","tag-federal-open-market-committee-fomc","tag-fomc-minutes","tag-gary-tanashian","tag-gold-analysis","tag-gold-vs-commodities","tag-gold-vs-stock-markets","tag-nftrh","tag-notes-from-the-rabbit-hole","tag-the-federal-reserve"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.4 (Yoast SEO v23.6) - 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