{"id":45770,"date":"2018-03-10T08:00:38","date_gmt":"2018-03-10T13:00:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=45770"},"modified":"2018-03-09T14:19:58","modified_gmt":"2018-03-09T19:19:58","slug":"be-careful-what-you-wish-for","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2018\/03\/be-careful-what-you-wish-for\/","title":{"rendered":"Be Careful What You Wish For"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"George<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

When doing some background research for this column, I came across this article in the May 12, 2017, edition of the Los Angeles Times: \u201cSomething Trump and Elizabeth Warren Agree On: Bringing Back Glass-Steagall to Break Up Big Banks<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n

Whatever happened to that idea?<\/p>\n

As kookie and wrong-headed on other issues as Senator \u201cPocahontas\u201d often is, she\u2019s at least been pretty consistent when it comes to her view of the banking industry (she doesn\u2019t like it). And according to the article, she wasn\u2019t alone in wanting to \u201cbreak up the biggest U.S. banks.\u201d Guess who else was on that list? None other than departing White House chief economic advisor Gary Cohn. <\/p>\n

Trump himself said, \u201cWe\u2019re looking at it right now as we speak,\u201d referring to \u201cgoing back to the old system\u201d under the Glass-Steagall Act in which commercial and investment banking were separated.<\/p>\n

Yet since then, the pendulum has swung in the other direction. Trump, hardly a model of consistency himself, has also said on numerous occasions he wants to do a \u201cbig number\u201d on the Dodd-Frank law of 2010. And that\u2019s where we seem to be headed.<\/p>\n

Just this past week , the Senate voted 67 to 32 \u2013 with 17 of the \u201cyes\u201d votes coming from Democrats \u2013 to move forward with a bill that would remove several restraints on the banking industry included in Dodd-Frank. Among the biggest changes would be to increase to $250 billion in assets from $50 billion the threshold under which banks would be considered to be \u201csystemically important financial institutions\u201d and therefore subject to stricter Federal Reserve regulation.<\/p>\n

But the bill, whose chief sponsor is Senate Banking Committee Chairman Mike Crapo, R-Idaho, would also exempt banks with less than $10 billion in total assets from the so-called Volcker Rule, named for former Fed chair Paul Volcker, which basically prohibits banks from trading with their own money for their own account. The rule was included in Dodd-Frank but took five years to implement, bottled up by aggressive lobbying by banks complaining that it\u2019s unfair and overly complex.<\/p>\n

Now to the rescue rides Randal Quarles, the Fed\u2019s vice chair for supervision, i.e., the main regulator of the biggest banks. In a speech to the Institute of International Bankers, Quarles said the Fed is considering \u201cbroad revisions\u201d to the rule. \u201cI believe the regulation implementing the Volcker rule is an example of a complex regulation that is not working well,\u201d he said. \u201cWe would like Volcker rule compliance to be similar to compliance in other areas of our supervisory regime.\u201d<\/p>\n

So, are \u201cdoing a big number\u201d on Dodd-Frank and revising the Volcker rule a wise thing? Do we really want to go back to the \u201cold system,\u201d meaning the financial environment that preceded the global financial crisis of 2008 and the Great Recession that followed? Or should we really consider going back to the \u201creally old system,\u201d meaning life under Glass-Steagall, which was essentially repealed in 1999 and many believe ushered in the aforesaid crisis and recession?<\/p>\n

Proponents of the Crapo bill argue that Dodd-Frank unfairly punished small and regional financial institutions that had little or nothing to do with causing the crisis so rolling it back is only fair and overdue. But loosening regulations on a larger set of even larger banks doesn\u2019t seem like the best way to keep the financial system safe.<\/p>\n

There is lots to Dodd-Frank that never made any sense, starting with the irony that the principal sponsors of the act \u2013 former Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-CT, and former Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass. \u2013 Played an outsize role in causing the financial crisis, given their bullying of lenders to make mortgage loans to people who never had a prayer of repaying their loans. It also made no sense that the law, one of whose chief goals was to rein in big banks, only just made them even bigger. <\/p>\n

So there\u2019s some validity to the belief that the law needs to be amended a little, especially given that it has also played a major role in stifling economic growth over the past ten years. <\/p>\n

Yet, let\u2019s also not forget that banks \u2013 no matter how much bigger they\u2019ve gotten under Dodd-Frank \u2013 are also a heck of a lot safer. And they\u2019re also a lot less reckless in their behavior thanks to the Volcker Rule.<\/p>\n

As the New York Times\u2019 Peter Eavis pointed out<\/a><\/strong> this week, \u201cThere may be one group of people who hope that the Fed doesn\u2019t gut the rule: Investors in bank stocks. Since the Volcker Rule took effect in 2015, they\u2019ve been able to worry much less about traders saddling their institutions with overwhelming losses. In fact, there hasn\u2019t been a big trading meltdown at a large United States bank since the London Whale debacle at JPMorgan Chase, which happened prior to 2015 and arguably lit a fire under regulators to finalize the rule.\u201d<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not lost on me that the one area where at least some Republicans and Democrats appear to be able to work together is on rolling back bank regulations. Not even gun control garners that much bipartisan support. But just because there\u2019s agreement doesn\u2019t mean it\u2019s the smart thing to do. To paraphrase that old saying, if the system\u2019s not broke, don\u2019t fix it. Otherwise, it\u2019s only a matter of time before it does break. Last time it took ten years to fix.<\/p>\n

Visit back to read my next article! <\/p>\n

George Yacik<\/a>
\nINO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates<\/p>\n

Disclosure: This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

When doing some background research for this column, I came across this article in the May 12, 2017, edition of the Los Angeles Times: \u201cSomething Trump and Elizabeth Warren Agree On: Bringing Back Glass-Steagall to Break Up Big Banks.\u201d Whatever happened to that idea? As kookie and wrong-headed on other issues as Senator \u201cPocahontas\u201d often […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":45771,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6920],"tags":[4539,6824,7310,6938,8771,9295,5442,9294],"class_list":["post-45770","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ino-com-contributors","tag-big-banks","tag-federal-open-market-committee-fomc","tag-federal-reserve-monetary-policy","tag-george-yacik","tag-president-donald-trump","tag-senator-elizabeth-warren","tag-the-federal-reserve","tag-the-glass-steagall-act"],"yoast_head":"\nBe Careful What You Wish For - INO.com Trader's Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Whatever happened to bringing back the Glass-Steagall Act to break up the big banks as both President Trump and Senator Warren had suggested in 2017?\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2018\/03\/be-careful-what-you-wish-for\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Be Careful What You Wish For - 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