{"id":46689,"date":"2018-05-24T09:48:24","date_gmt":"2018-05-24T13:48:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=46689"},"modified":"2018-05-24T09:48:24","modified_gmt":"2018-05-24T13:48:24","slug":"uncle-sams-bargain-bonds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2018\/05\/uncle-sams-bargain-bonds\/","title":{"rendered":"Uncle Sam's Bargain Bonds"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"George<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

According to a widely reprinted and circulated report<\/a><\/strong> in the Wall Street Journal, for the first time since 2000, U.S. government bonds now yield more than all of their developed world counterparts. Looking just at the 10-year security, the yield on the benchmark Treasury note now yields more compared to a record number of countries, and the yield differential between the U.S. government note and its German bund counterpart is its widest in almost 30 years.<\/p>\n

Basically, this means that the arguably safest investment available anywhere in the world \u2013 the one American business schools still hold up as a \u201criskless\u201d benchmark \u2013 yields way more than most other sovereign debt, including Italy\u2019s, Canada\u2019s and Australia\u2019s \u2013 but no, not Greece\u2019s, although they\u2019re not too far off.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s look at the numbers.<\/p>\n

As of May 22, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was yielding 3.06%. Since breaking through the 3.0% barrier on May 14, the yield has remained mostly above that level ever since, hitting a high of 3.12% on May 17. That\u2019s the first time the yield has stayed above the 3.0% level more than a day or so since 2011. While the yield has since come back down recently to below 3.0%, I think it\u2019s more likely to hit 3.10% again before it moves much below 3.0%.<\/p>\n

So how does that stack up to other developed country sovereign bond yields?<\/p>\n

Using May 22 closing levels, the German bund \u2013 the benchmark for the eurozone \u2013 yields just 0.56%, or 250 basis points below the U.S. note. The Japanese 10-year bond yields just 0.05%. Elsewhere, 10-year U.K. gilts yield 1.52% -- half of what Uncle Sam pays \u2013 and Swiss bonds yield just 0.10%. Greece is at 4.39%, although that\u2019s down sharply from recent years.<\/p>\n

Even yields on Italian sovereign bonds, which have recently soared as an anti-establishment coalition seeks to form a government and return Italy to its financially-profligate ways, are way lower than their U.S. counterparts. The 10-year Italian government bond was recently trading at more than 2.40%, its highest level in four years. And yet it still yields a good 60 bps below what full faith and credit U.S. bonds yield.<\/p>\n

Does this make sense?<\/p>\n

Well, yes and yes.<\/p>\n

Interest rates and bond yields, as we know, are a product of not only credit risk but also supply and demand and the cost of money. The U.S. passes the credit risk test with flying colors \u2013 not because our government is so fiscally responsible (it surely isn\u2019t) but because it has the power to tax its citizens and businesses as much as it can get away with or, when that fails or isn\u2019t enough, print and borrow more money. Few nations on earth can get away with that without creating hyperinflation.<\/p>\n

Which leads to the second factor, supply and demand, and that\u2019s where we see the reason for high U.S. borrowing rates.
\nUncle Sam is in debt by more than $21 trillion, far and away the most of any nation on earth. Indeed, America\u2019s external debt is larger than the next three countries\u2019 total combined: the U.K. at $8.5 trillion, France at $5.7 trillion, and Germany at $5.4 trillion. <\/p>\n

In other words, the world is flooded with U.S. government debt. There\u2019s obviously a price to pay to get people to buy it all.<\/p>\n

Actually, the U.S. is pretty fiscally responsible compared to its developed world counterparts. That $21 trillion in external debt roughly equals the size of U.S. GDP. That\u2019s a trivial percentage compared to 313% for the U.K., 213% for France, and 141% for Germany. Surprisingly, Italy\u2019s sovereign debt to GDP ratio is only 124%.<\/p>\n

Of course, there\u2019s another big factor that puts upward pressure on U.S. yields, and that is monetary policy. While the U.S. has pretty much moved past the financial crisis and the Federal Reserve has at least started the process of raising interest rates and unwinding its massive balance sheet, the rest of the world still acts like their economies are in dire straits. <\/p>\n

For example, the European Central Bank\u2019s main interest rates are still at their record lows set two years ago, with the deposit facility at negative 0.40% and its main refinancing rate at zero. The Bank of Japan\u2019s key short-term interest rate remains at a record negative 0.10%. Both central banks have shown no indication when they might start raising rates or unwinding their own giant bond portfolios. The Bank of England raised its short-term rate last November but hasn\u2019t made any similar moves since.<\/p>\n

In other words, while the Fed is trying to normalize monetary and interest rate policies, albeit very slowly, the rest of the developed world shows no inclination to follow along. Interest rates are being kept deliberately and artificially low, and may remain that way for who knows how long?<\/p>\n

So what\u2019s the takeaway from all this? Despite falling this week, I think U.S. interest rates and government bond yields are likely headed higher, which will make the yield differential with the rest of the world even wider. With practically no credit risk, U.S. government bonds appear to present tremendous value, at least against their global counterparts.<\/p>\n

Visit back to read my next article! <\/p>\n

George Yacik<\/a>
\nINO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates<\/p>\n

Disclosure: This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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