{"id":47877,"date":"2018-09-12T11:00:28","date_gmt":"2018-09-12T15:00:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=47877"},"modified":"2018-09-12T10:32:12","modified_gmt":"2018-09-12T14:32:12","slug":"whats-right-neutral-interest-rate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2018\/09\/whats-right-neutral-interest-rate\/","title":{"rendered":"What's The Right 'Neutral' Interest Rate?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Will last Friday\u2019s August jobs report showing that wages rose nearly 3% compared to a year ago finally convince the Federal Reserve that inflation really is starting to pick up steam? If not, what exactly will it take?<\/p>\n

That report was certainly good news for workers, who have waited a long time \u2013 since 2009, apparently \u2013 to see their wages rise by so much. But it also provides convincing evidence that 2% inflation \u2013 which the Fed has been trying to stoke for the past 10 years \u2013 has finally arrived. But will the Fed actually believe it and do something before it \u201coverheats,\u201d to use its word?<\/p>\n

A hike in the federal funds rate to 2.25% at the Fed\u2019s September 25-26 monetary policy seems like it\u2019s already baked in the cake. But it\u2019s still not a given that another one will happen at the December meeting. According to CME\u2019s Market Watch tool, the odds of a rate hike at the yearend confab are only 72%, compared to more than 98% for this month\u2019s meeting. (While the Fed does meet in early November \u2013 just a day after the \u201cmost important election in our nation\u2019s history,\u201d if you believe some of the political pundits \u2013 a rate change then is very unlikely. The Fed has indicated that it will only adjust rates at a meeting that ends with a press conference by the Fed chair. That pretty much disqualifies November). <\/p>\n

After the jobs report was released, the yield on the two-year Treasury note hit 2.70%, its highest level in more than 10 years. The benchmark 10-year note closed last week at 2.94%, its highest point in over a month. That those rates didn\u2019t go even higher seems to indicate that the market isn\u2019t yet sold on two more rate increases this year.<\/p>\n

At least one member of the Fed is. <\/p>\n

Eric Rosengren, the president of the Boston Fed, told the Wall Street Journal that the Fed should raise the fed funds rate in each of the next four quarters, starting with September. \u201cI don\u2019t think there\u2019s anything special about pausing at any one point,\u201d<\/em> he added.<\/p>\n

Rosengren dismissed the idea of a \u201cneutral\u201d fed funds rate, meaning one that\u2019s high enough to keep inflation in check but low enough not to stifle economic growth, now expected to hit 4.4% this quarter, up from 4.2% in the second quarter. \u201cWe don\u2019t know with any kind of precision\u201d<\/em> where the neutral rate is, he said, \u201cbut it\u2019s certainly higher than where we are now and is likely to be maybe a percentage point higher than we are now.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

Yet, some Fed members remain unconvinced. James Bullard, the president of the St. Louis Fed and a long-time dove, doesn\u2019t even support a rate hike this month, although he doesn\u2019t have a vote this time around. He made his comments before the August jobs report came out, although it\u2019s hard to believe he would support a rate increase even now.<\/p>\n

While I agree with Rosengren that the fed funds rate is currently too low and that we really don't know what the \u201cneutral\u201d rate is until the Fed overshoots it, I think the threshold is a lot lower than it used to be.<\/p>\n

While the yield on the 10-year Treasury note is certainly far above its lowest rate ever \u2013 1.38% reached two years ago \u2013 it\u2019s still pretty close to historic lows. In the decade before the global financial crisis, the yield was more commonly in the 4% to 5% range, well above current levels. Way back in prehistoric times \u2013 the 1990s \u2013 the yield was more typically in the 6% to 7% range. How would investors, borrowers and business owners \u2013 many of whom don\u2019t remember rates that high \u2013 react today if long-term rates soared to those levels again?<\/p>\n

I\u2019m not suggesting that\u2019s going to happen. But I am suggesting that for rates to be considered \u201ctoo high\u201d today isn\u2019t very high at all, at least by historical standards. <\/p>\n

Look what\u2019s already happening in the mortgage industry, where refinance business has largely evaporated and purchase mortgage volume is also down, even with 30-year fixed-rate loans still well below 5%. That\u2019s because 5% looks awfully steep when you\u2019ve become accustomed to rates below 4%. It\u2019s all relative. <\/p>\n

Still, what if the Fed has to drive the fed funds rate back to say, 5%, where it was before the financial crisis if inflation does get out of control? A 5% fed funds rate, remember, is not that unusual in the historical context. And it\u2019s not out of the question in the next few years given a smoking economy following a decade of artificially low interest rates, massive Fed bond buying and wildly accommodative monetary policy. At some point, the bill comes due.<\/p>\n

Something to think about. And keep you up at night.<\/p>\n

Visit back to read my next article! <\/p>\n

George Yacik<\/a>
\nINO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates<\/p>\n

Disclosure: This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Will last Friday\u2019s August jobs report showing that wages rose nearly 3% compared to a year ago finally convince the Federal Reserve that inflation really is starting to pick up steam? If not, what exactly will it take? That report was certainly good news for workers, who have waited a long time \u2013 since 2009, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":47879,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6920],"tags":[8483,9513,8570,9514,6824,6938,230,5745,5442],"class_list":["post-47877","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ino-com-contributors","tag-10-year-treasury-note","tag-august-jobs-report","tag-eric-rosengren","tag-fed-funds-rate","tag-federal-open-market-committee-fomc","tag-george-yacik","tag-interest-rates","tag-monetary-policy","tag-the-federal-reserve"],"yoast_head":"\nWhat's The Right 'Neutral' Interest Rate? - INO.com Trader's Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Will last Friday\u2019s August jobs report showing that wages rose nearly 3% compared to a year ago finally convince the Federal Reserve that inflation really is starting to pick up steam?\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2018\/09\/whats-right-neutral-interest-rate\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What's The Right 'Neutral' Interest Rate? 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