{"id":48013,"date":"2018-09-27T21:27:30","date_gmt":"2018-09-28T01:27:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=48013"},"modified":"2018-09-28T16:03:22","modified_gmt":"2018-09-28T20:03:22","slug":"nftrh-518-excerpt-precious-metals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2018\/09\/nftrh-518-excerpt-precious-metals\/","title":{"rendered":"NFTRH 518 Excerpt: Precious Metals"},"content":{"rendered":"

In honor of the\u00a0men staring at silver\u2019s daily chart<\/a>, let\u2019s highlight NFTRH 518\u2019s\u00a0Precious Metals\u00a0<\/strong>segment this morning. We have 60% of the new trading week in the books and not much has changed for the PMs since this was written. You\u2019ll notice that this man who stares at charts gets a little wordy at the end. There is much context that would-be gold bugs need to have in hand.<\/p>\n

Precious Metals<\/h3>\n

Last week:<\/p>\n

Here is how I see the precious metals situation. It\u2019s one or the other of\u2026<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. US dollar declines short-term and the precious metals bounce with the rest of the anti-USD trade, or\u2026<\/li>\n
  2. US dollar rises (likely along with the Gold\/Silver ratio) and the precious metals decline again into a real buying opportunity.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Thing 1 carried the day (week). I don\u2019t care (well, actually I do but work with me here\u2026) how many gold bugs leave the subscriber base while I am not able to give a long-term green light, but we are going to track the proper fundamentals, not the imaginary ones. And this bounce along with China, copper, global stocks, US stocks and everything else in the cyclical world is not proper. Not until all that crap tops out.<\/p>\n

    It. Is. A. Bounce\u2026 until it proves otherwise by seeing gold rise against CRB, SPX, ACWX and while we\u2019re at it, global currencies.<\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

    So for now it\u2019s just a bounce, and the\u00a0[daily]<\/em>\u00a0Silver\/Gold ratio did make a positive hint of Friday.<\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

    As is often the case, the sector will rally with cyclical assets if the rally is anti-USD and\/or inflationary. This is not long-term positive signaling for the gold miners, however. Quite the contrary. So if you\u2019re in them, enjoy the bounce \u2013 insofar as it continues \u2013 but be prepared to sell (if you are not positioning L\/T) because if the other stuff liquidates the gold miners likely will as well, perhaps before hand and perhaps even more intensely.<\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

    Here is the view vs. stock markets; also not pleasing if you are a gold bug wanting to buy\u00a0[gold stocks and gold related investments; it\u2019s always a good time for physical gold as a value anchor & insurance]<\/em>\u00a0for the right reasons. Now, this pretty cyclical picture\u00a0[risk \u2018on\u2019]<\/em>\u00a0could come apart tomorrow and then we\u2019d pound a table, fundamentally. But here at NFTRH we have got to deal with what we see, not what we hallucinate. There\u2019s enough of that going on in the gold\u00a0\u201ccommunity\u201d<\/em>\u00a0already.<\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

    Gold weekly is still stuck in the resistance zone during the inflationary cyclical bounce. Gold\u2019s lack of participation is actually not such a bad thing when you think about it.<\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

    Silver however, would need to get going and lead during an inflationary play.<\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

    HUI got within 4 points of initial resistance at 150.<\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

    The daily chart shows that resistance area to coincide with the SMA 50. Folks, if it bounces again and funda do not change, I\u2019d have some caution there.<\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

    I am going to skip the cavalcade of gold stock charts because well, on balance they are lousy (with some exceptions). I cannot in good conscience put too much into this sector at a time like this, when it\u2019s bouncing and the fundamentals are not engaged. We looked for a bounce and finally it came. Unfortunately, it came as part of an anti-USD global asset bounce. It\u2019s not legit.<\/p>\n

    I am not saying run out and sell gold stocks if you own them. I am saying don\u2019t hold them if you think that inflation is going to drive all commodities up while the global economic cycle remains positive.<\/p>\n

    There are all kinds of different investors. One might have bought the hard spike down to the first support area of HUI 135 a couple weeks ago with the idea of adding more on a further crash to 100-120. But one is currently doing this against poor fundamentals.<\/p>\n

    Ah, but the story gets more complicated. Because, this\u2026<\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

    One might be anticipating the end of a cycle and patiently adding quality names. That\u2019s legit. What is illegitimate is this inflation pumping by the worst of the gold herd. There appears to be late stage cyclical stuff going on but these candles measure in months. For instance, even if SPX\/Gold is close to topping out at the 2005 gap how many more months will it take for pure, unbridled speculation and greed to play out? And how unpleasant could it be all along the way for the lowly gold bug? Know who you are and how strong you are before positioning on forward expectations.<\/p>\n

    Check back to see my next post!<\/p>\n

    Best,
    \nGary Tanashian
    \n    Biiwii.com<\/a><\/p>\n

    Subscribe to\u00a0NFTRH Pre<\/strong>mium<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0(monthly at USD $33.50<\/a>\u00a0or a 14% discounted\u00a0yearly at USD $345.00<\/a>) for an in-depth\u00a0weekly market report<\/strong>,\u00a0interim market updates<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0NFTRH+ chart and trade setup ideas<\/strong>, all archived\/posted at the site and delivered to your inbox.<\/p>\n

    You can also keep up to date with plenty of actionable public content at\u00a0NFTRH.com<\/a>\u00a0by using the\u00a0email form on the right sidebar<\/strong>\u00a0and get even\u00a0more<\/em>\u00a0by\u00a0joining our<\/a>\u00a0free eLetter<\/strong>. Or follow via Twitter\u00a0@BiiwiiNFTRH<\/a>,\u00a0StockTwits<\/a>\u00a0or\u00a0RSS<\/a>. Also check out the quality market writers at\u00a0Biiwii.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    In honor of the\u00a0men staring at silver\u2019s daily chart, let\u2019s highlight NFTRH 518\u2019s\u00a0Precious Metals\u00a0segment this morning. We have 60% of the new trading week in the books and not much has changed for the PMs since this was written. You\u2019ll notice that this man who stares at charts gets a little wordy at the end. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":41,"featured_media":48021,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1840,4273,2567,9526,307,3034,102],"class_list":["post-48013","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-biiwiicom","tag-gary-tanashian","tag-gold-analysis","tag-notes-from-the-rabbit-hole-nftrh","tag-precious-metals","tag-silver-analysis","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"\nNFTRH 518 Excerpt: Precious Metals - INO.com Trader's Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2018\/09\/nftrh-518-excerpt-precious-metals\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"NFTRH 518 Excerpt: Precious Metals - INO.com Trader's Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In honor of the\u00a0men staring at silver\u2019s daily chart, let\u2019s highlight NFTRH 518\u2019s\u00a0Precious Metals\u00a0segment this morning. 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