{"id":48231,"date":"2018-10-29T08:00:45","date_gmt":"2018-10-29T12:00:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=48231"},"modified":"2018-10-26T21:07:27","modified_gmt":"2018-10-27T01:07:27","slug":"gold-stocks-will-benefit-cyclical-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2018\/10\/gold-stocks-will-benefit-cyclical-change\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Stocks Will Benefit From Cyclical Change"},"content":{"rendered":"

As we have noted over the many years of the gold sector\u2019s bear market, the gold miners will not rally for real until the\u00a0real<\/em>\u00a0sector and macro fundamentals come into place. Those fundamentals do not include commonly promoted inflation, China\/India\u00a0\u201clove\u201d<\/em>\u00a0trades, a US dollar collapse or especially, war, pestilence or any other human misery than economic. The more astute gold bugs do not fall for that.<\/p>\n

The gold miners are counter-cyclical as they leverage gold\u2019s performance (whether positive or negative) relative to cyclical assets and markets. Hence the handy picture showing the key fundamental items with the 4 largest planets orbiting the golden sun being the most important.<\/p>\n

\"macro<\/a><\/p>\n

So the\u00a03 Amigos (of the macro)<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0were saddled up last year in order to guide us to the point of macro change. Linked here is the most recent update from October 19. In this post let\u2019s look at just one macro fundamental indicator among several important macro and sector fundamentals; the ratio of gold to developed stock markets.<\/p>\n

As a side note, the macro fundamentals indicate whether the larger economic cycle and investor sentiment backdrops are right for the gold sector and the sector fundamentals that we track indicate whether gold mining companies are likely to improve, operationally. The gold stock sector is a real value now, assuming the turns in stock markets are for real, unlike the February spike down.<\/p>\n

By\u00a0\u201cfor real\u201d<\/em>, we are looking for the SPX\/Gold ratio to decline to the green shaded zone on the chart below, which would theoretically guide nominal SPX to a target zone of 2100-2200; which in turn could serve up a lot of pain for conventional stock market players. Importantly, the SPX\/Gold Ratio crashed into a ceiling known as the resistance we have been watching for years now. The big picture trend is still up, but this monthly chart gives a visual of just how abrupt and hard the macro smash has been.<\/p>\n

\"macro<\/a><\/p>\n

Flipping the above ratio over and dialing in daily and weekly views, let\u2019s look at a couple\u00a0NFTRH<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0charts of gold vs. stock markets. The month of October has seen gold vs. developed stock markets rocket higher, even closing today above the 200-day moving average vs. the S&P 500.<\/p>\n

\"macro<\/a><\/p>\n

Change starts somewhere and that somewhere has been on the daily charts. Next order of business will be to turn the weeklies up. The trends are still down, but\u2026 give it time and have patience. There will short-term ups and downs aplenty on the way to changing the trends.<\/p>\n

\"macro<\/a><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, nominal gold stock indexes and ETFs have not really moved other than bouncing around after forming short-term bottom\/bounce patterns. We manage the daily, weekly and monthly chart technicals routinely in weekend reports and in-week updates. Why, I\u2019m even going to pop a 30-minute chart of HUI into NFTRH 523 this weekend, as it will help answer some questions for those who are very short-term oriented.<\/p>\n

So ongoing technical analysis of nominal charts is helpful, but it is nothing but noise absent the macro and sector fundamentals, just one of which we\u2019ve highlighted in this post (gold vs. stocks). Unsurprisingly, this setup is not playing out in an inflationary growth situation as\u00a0bonds bounce as expected<\/a>, it is not due to war (other than the damaging inputs of the Trade War, which is\u00a0economic<\/em>\u00a0war), India\u2019s weddings, China\u2019s love or any other rationalization other than the macro looks like it is changing, finally. Well hallelujah.<\/p>\n

But we need to continually check assumptions and develop the story. So far so good. Do the right work or have your dedicated partner,\u00a0NFTRH<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0do it for or along with you. Oh, and we\u2019re going to intensify the gold miner stock charting this weekend to boot.<\/p>\n

Check back to see my next post!<\/p>\n

Best,
\nGary Tanashian
\nBiiwii.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Subscribe to\u00a0NFTRH Pre<\/strong>mium<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0(monthly at USD $33.50<\/a>\u00a0or a 14% discounted\u00a0yearly at USD $345.00<\/a>) for an in-depth\u00a0weekly market report<\/strong>,\u00a0interim market updates<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0NFTRH+ chart and trade setup ideas<\/strong>, all archived\/posted at the site and delivered to your inbox.<\/p>\n

You can also keep up to date with plenty of actionable public content at\u00a0NFTRH.com<\/a>\u00a0by\u00a0joining our<\/a>\u00a0free eLetter<\/strong>. Or follow via Twitter\u00a0@BiiwiiNFTRH<\/a>,\u00a0StockTwits<\/a>\u00a0or\u00a0RSS<\/a>. Also, check out the quality market writers at\u00a0Biiwii.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As we have noted over the many years of the gold sector\u2019s bear market, the gold miners will not rally for real until the\u00a0real\u00a0sector and macro fundamentals come into place. Those fundamentals do not include commonly promoted inflation, China\/India\u00a0\u201clove\u201d\u00a0trades, a US dollar collapse or especially, war, pestilence or any other human misery than economic. The […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":41,"featured_media":48228,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1840,4273,2567,9526,307,3034,102],"class_list":["post-48231","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-biiwiicom","tag-gary-tanashian","tag-gold-analysis","tag-notes-from-the-rabbit-hole-nftrh","tag-precious-metals","tag-silver-analysis","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"\nGold Stocks Will Benefit From Cyclical Change - INO.com Trader's Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Macro fundamentals indicate whether the larger economic cycle and investor sentiment backdrops are right for the gold sector.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2018\/10\/gold-stocks-will-benefit-cyclical-change\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Gold Stocks Will Benefit From Cyclical Change - 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