{"id":48337,"date":"2018-11-13T07:00:14","date_gmt":"2018-11-13T12:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=48337"},"modified":"2018-11-12T11:31:54","modified_gmt":"2018-11-12T16:31:54","slug":"gold-silver-falling-knives","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2018\/11\/gold-silver-falling-knives\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold &#038; Silver: Falling Knives"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Silver has failed to complete the second leg up as it couldn\u2019t break above the August top of $15. It is interesting that this misbehavior of the white metal didn\u2019t surprise you as the majority of you had bet <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2018\/11\/silver-slows-saving-gold-collapse\/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">last week<\/a><\/strong> that silver would fail and drop below $14.2. It\u2019s impressive how accurate your forecast was! <\/p>\n<p>In this post, I would like to update downside targets as we should be prepared for the resumption of the drop in metals after pullbacks have been finished.  <\/p>\n<h2 style=\"color: #003380; font-size: 20px;\">Chart 1. Gold Weekly: Bear Flag Targets Bottom<\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/10156.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/10156.jpg\" width=\"1105\" height=\"477\" alt=\"falling knives\" class=\"aligncenter size-full\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<small><em>Chart courtesy of tradingview.com<\/em><\/small><\/p>\n<p>Last week I reminded you of the big range of <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/quotes.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/10130.jpg\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">trade<\/a><\/strong>, which requires the retest of the downside of the range to complete the setup.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>In this post, I highlighted for you a famous Bear Flag pattern (orange), which is yet to be confirmed. The break below the downside of the flag ($1190) is pending to complete the pattern. The first red down arrow represents the Flag Pole, which is crucial to calculate the target of the pattern. Another red down arrow shows the path to the target.<\/p>\n<p>There are two interesting things about this pattern. Firstly, the target implies the breakdown of the range\u2019s trough of $1122. Secondly, the target coincides amazingly with the major low of $1046, which was established three years ago in December of 2015. Again and again, we see the magic of math that frequently appears on the charts. Let\u2019s see, which model would play out in the market.<\/p>\n<div id=\"polls-291\" class=\"wp-polls\">\n\t<form id=\"polls_form_291\" class=\"wp-polls-form\" action=\"\/blog\/index.php\" method=\"post\">\n\t\t<p style=\"display: none;\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"poll_291_nonce\" name=\"wp-polls-nonce\" value=\"debbbfcb1c\" \/><\/p>\n\t\t<p style=\"display: none;\"><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"poll_id\" value=\"291\" \/><\/p>\n\t\t<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>How low do you think gold will drop?<\/strong><\/p><div id=\"polls-291-ans\" class=\"wp-polls-ans\"><ul class=\"wp-polls-ul\">\n\t\t<li><input type=\"radio\" id=\"poll-answer-900\" name=\"poll_291\" value=\"900\" \/> <label for=\"poll-answer-900\">$1100 area (downside of the range)<\/label><\/li>\n\t\t<li><input type=\"radio\" id=\"poll-answer-901\" name=\"poll_291\" value=\"901\" \/> <label for=\"poll-answer-901\">$1000 area (major low, big figure)<\/label><\/li>\n\t\t<li><input type=\"radio\" id=\"poll-answer-902\" name=\"poll_291\" value=\"902\" \/> <label for=\"poll-answer-902\">$1160 was the bottom already<\/label><\/li>\n\t\t<\/ul><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><input type=\"button\" name=\"vote\" value=\"   Vote   \" class=\"Buttons\" onclick=\"poll_vote(291);\" onkeypress=\"poll_result(291);\" \/><\/p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"#ViewPollResults\" onclick=\"poll_result(291); return false;\" onkeypress=\"poll_result(291); return false;\" title=\"View Results Of This Poll\">View Results<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n\t<\/form>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"polls-291-loading\" class=\"wp-polls-loading\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-polls\/images\/loading.gif\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\" alt=\"Loading ...\" title=\"Loading ...\" class=\"wp-polls-image\" \/>&nbsp;Loading ...<\/div>\n\n<h2 style=\"color: #003380; font-size: 20px;\">Chart 2. Silver Weekly: Falling Knife<\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/10157.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/10157.jpg\" width=\"970\" height=\"468\" alt=\"falling knives\" class=\"aligncenter size-full\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<small><em>Chart courtesy of tradingview.com<\/em><\/small><\/p>\n<p>Silver looks like a younger sister, who lacks parents\u2019 love in favor of elder sister Goldie. It lacks investors\u2019 support, therefore, it couldn\u2019t perform the same size of the pullback as gold did and the subsequent drop was just horrific. The price closed only 20 cents away from the September low as one single weekly candle erased almost all gains established in the past two months. Indeed, there is a falling silver knife.<\/p>\n<p>This is an update of the <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/quotes.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/9634.jpg\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">chart<\/a><\/strong> I posted this <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2018\/05\/silver-looks-dark-abyss\/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">past May<\/a><\/strong>. The main concept is still valid, and the AB segment remained unchanged. The triangular consolidation has extended its width, and that caused the change of the angle of the downtrend channel (orange) to cover the top established this June, which is now a lower point for the start of CD segment. This amendment has moved the target of D point also lower from $12.3 down to $11.7. The new target is far below the major low of $13.6.<\/p>\n<p>Before you bet on the silver\u2019s bottom, I would like to share with you one more chart of the gold\/silver ratio as it can expand your current view.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"color: #003380; font-size: 20px;\">Chart 3. Gold\/Silver Ratio Daily: Gold Keeps Stronger<\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/10158.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/10158.jpg\" width=\"907\" height=\"474\" alt=\"falling knives\" class=\"aligncenter size-full\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<small><em>Chart courtesy of tradingview.com<\/em><\/small><\/p>\n<p>The ratio is rising for the second year in a row with small consolidations in between. The angle of growth turned even steeper than in a previous year. The orange uptrend\u2019s downside was tested several times this year but kept intact. The last attack down was conducted at the beginning of this month, and we can see that both price and the RSI on the sub-chart bounced off the support to keep the gold\u2019s dominance.<\/p>\n<p>The ratio finally broke above the green horizontal resistance of 85.2 troy oz. last Friday and closed at 85.5 troy oz. The target is located at the top of the channel of 89.5 troy oz. And now let\u2019s use this target level to check where the silver could drop if gold hits the Bear Flag\u2019s target of $1046. If we divide 1046 into 89.5, we will get $11.7 for silver, and it\u2019s a target for the CD segment. Simple math, but it\u2019s incredible!<\/p>\n<div id=\"polls-292\" class=\"wp-polls\">\n\t<form id=\"polls_form_292\" class=\"wp-polls-form\" action=\"\/blog\/index.php\" method=\"post\">\n\t\t<p style=\"display: none;\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"poll_292_nonce\" name=\"wp-polls-nonce\" value=\"bbb9514af3\" \/><\/p>\n\t\t<p style=\"display: none;\"><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"poll_id\" value=\"292\" \/><\/p>\n\t\t<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>How low do you think silver will drop?<\/strong><\/p><div id=\"polls-292-ans\" class=\"wp-polls-ans\"><ul class=\"wp-polls-ul\">\n\t\t<li><input type=\"radio\" id=\"poll-answer-903\" name=\"poll_292\" value=\"903\" \/> <label for=\"poll-answer-903\">$11.7 (CD=AB)<\/label><\/li>\n\t\t<li><input type=\"radio\" id=\"poll-answer-904\" name=\"poll_292\" value=\"904\" \/> <label for=\"poll-answer-904\">$13.6 (major low)<\/label><\/li>\n\t\t<li><input type=\"radio\" id=\"poll-answer-905\" name=\"poll_292\" value=\"905\" \/> <label for=\"poll-answer-905\">$13.9 was the bottom already<\/label><\/li>\n\t\t<\/ul><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><input type=\"button\" name=\"vote\" value=\"   Vote   \" class=\"Buttons\" onclick=\"poll_vote(292);\" onkeypress=\"poll_result(292);\" \/><\/p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"#ViewPollResults\" onclick=\"poll_result(292); return false;\" onkeypress=\"poll_result(292); return false;\" title=\"View Results Of This Poll\">View Results<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n\t<\/form>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"polls-292-loading\" class=\"wp-polls-loading\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-polls\/images\/loading.gif\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\" alt=\"Loading ...\" title=\"Loading ...\" class=\"wp-polls-image\" \/>&nbsp;Loading ...<\/div>\n\n<p>Last time the bets were split evenly between the two metals. <\/p>\n<div id=\"polls-293\" class=\"wp-polls\">\n\t<form id=\"polls_form_293\" class=\"wp-polls-form\" action=\"\/blog\/index.php\" method=\"post\">\n\t\t<p style=\"display: none;\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"poll_293_nonce\" name=\"wp-polls-nonce\" value=\"bd26fc156c\" \/><\/p>\n\t\t<p style=\"display: none;\"><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"poll_id\" value=\"293\" \/><\/p>\n\t\t<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Which metal is your favorite now?<\/strong><\/p><div id=\"polls-293-ans\" class=\"wp-polls-ans\"><ul class=\"wp-polls-ul\">\n\t\t<li><input type=\"radio\" id=\"poll-answer-906\" name=\"poll_293\" value=\"906\" \/> <label for=\"poll-answer-906\">Gold<\/label><\/li>\n\t\t<li><input type=\"radio\" id=\"poll-answer-907\" name=\"poll_293\" value=\"907\" \/> <label for=\"poll-answer-907\">Silver<\/label><\/li>\n\t\t<\/ul><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><input type=\"button\" name=\"vote\" value=\"   Vote   \" class=\"Buttons\" onclick=\"poll_vote(293);\" onkeypress=\"poll_result(293);\" \/><\/p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"#ViewPollResults\" onclick=\"poll_result(293); return false;\" onkeypress=\"poll_result(293); return false;\" title=\"View Results Of This Poll\">View Results<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n\t<\/form>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"polls-293-loading\" class=\"wp-polls-loading\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-polls\/images\/loading.gif\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\" alt=\"Loading ...\" title=\"Loading ...\" class=\"wp-polls-image\" \/>&nbsp;Loading ...<\/div>\n\n<p>Intelligent trades!<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/meet-aibek-burabayev\/\" title=\"Meet Aibek Burabeyev\">Aibek Burabayev<\/a><br \/>\nINO.com Contributor, Metals<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 12px; font-style: italic;\">Disclosure: This contributor has no positions in any stocks mentioned in this article. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.<\/span><\/p>\n<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on the_content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Silver has failed to complete the second leg up as it couldn\u2019t break above the August top of $15. It is interesting that this misbehavior of the white metal didn\u2019t surprise you as the majority of you had bet last week that silver would fail and drop below $14.2. It\u2019s impressive how accurate your forecast [&hellip;]<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":48340,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6920],"tags":[6922,3438,23,5519,2567,2315,7261,5869,294,6613,3034,3035,102],"class_list":["post-48337","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ino-com-contributors","tag-aibek-burabayev","tag-chart-analysis","tag-gold","tag-gold-forexxauusdo","tag-gold-analysis","tag-gold-chart","tag-precious-metals-analysis","tag-relative-strength-index-rsi","tag-silver","tag-silver-forexxagusdo","tag-silver-analysis","tag-silver-chart","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.4 (Yoast SEO v23.6) - 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