{"id":49009,"date":"2019-01-21T12:27:43","date_gmt":"2019-01-21T17:27:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=49009"},"modified":"2019-01-21T12:27:43","modified_gmt":"2019-01-21T17:27:43","slug":"semiconductor-sector-watch-the-early-bird-in-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2019\/01\/semiconductor-sector-watch-the-early-bird-in-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"Semiconductor Sector - Watch The Early Bird In 2019"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>As in January of 2013 (ahead of an economic up cycle) and Q4 2017-Q1 2018 (ahead of an economic ripple that began in 2018) the Semiconductor sector and in particular its Semi Equipment sub-sector are front and center in forming our analysis about coming events. Excerpted from the January 20th edition of\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/nftrh.com\/nftrh-premium\/\"><strong>Notes From the Rabbit Hole<\/strong><\/a>,\u00a0<strong>NFTRH 535<\/strong>\u2026<\/em><\/p>\n<h3>Semiconductor Sector \u2013 Watch the Early Bird in 2019<\/h3>\n<p>This one is special for me. I started my work life many moons ago as a participant with the Semi sector [circa 1983-1993], painfully learning first hand how violent the cyclical turns can be. Dialing ahead a couple decades, in January of 2013 NFTRH began a narrative that saw the then up-turning Semi Equipment bookings (this data is unfortunately no longer published) lead the sector, general manufacturing and eventually the whole raft of components that make up the economy into a cyclical upturn.<\/p>\n<p>The prime Semi Equipment names we follow are Applied Materials (AMAT) and Lam Research (LRCX). Well over a year ago we used their failing leadership to the broad Semi sector as a leading indicator on the economy, and things finally came to a head in October 2018. We made note of how industry advocates have been lobbying hard for the Trump Administration to re-think its trade tariffs as relates to Semiconductors.<\/p>\n<p>My question has been over the last year and still is\u2026 \u2018is the Semi Equipment downturn a real cycle or just a cyclical interruption?\u2019 Reference\u2026<!--more--><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/nftrh.com\/2018\/09\/26\/nftrh-the-latest-word-on-the-semi-equipment-cycle-high-priority\/\">NFTRH Update; The Latest Word on the Semi Equipment Cycle (high priority) \u00a09.26.18<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/nftrh.com\/2018\/05\/18\/semiconductor-canaries-chirp-warble-soon-a-croak-and-silence\/\">Semiconductor Canaries: Chirp, Warble\u2026 Soon a Croak and Silence?\u00a0 5.18.18<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/nftrh.com\/2018\/06\/18\/a-bull-in-a-china-shop\/\">NFTRH 504 Excerpt: A Bull in a China Shop\u00a0 6.18.18<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/nftrh.com\/2018\/03\/15\/semi-equipment-industry-china-or-bust\/\">Semi Equipment Industry: China or Bust?\u00a0 3.15.18<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/nftrh.com\/2018\/01\/11\/semi-canary-still-chirping-but-hes-gonna-croak-in-2018\/\">Semi Canary Still Chirping, But He\u2019s Gonna Croak in 2018\u00a0 1.11.18<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/nftrh.com\/2017\/11\/21\/semi-equipment-spending-record-and-2018-growth\/\">Semi Equipment Spending Record, 2018 Growth, But\u2026\u00a0 11.21.17<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>From my contact, per the NFTRH Update linked above\u2026<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Hi Gary,<\/p>\n<p>We see business off about 25-30% from the high over the past year. I suspect it will stay at this level and as of right now it looks like it will not recover until Q1 and maybe not until Q2 next year. 2019 is still expected to be just as robust as it was and depending on the world economy may even be up 5-10%.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>In short, while we have been managing an industry slowdown, exacerbated by the US\/China trade war, the question as illustrated by my contact\u2019s feedback and by this graph taken from the January 2018 post linked above is whether this has just been a cyclical crimp in the rope or a real downturn.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/semi.png?ssl=1\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"jetpack-lazy-image jetpack-lazy-image--handled aligncenter wp-image-68138 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/semi.png?resize=663%2C495&amp;ssl=1\" sizes=\"(max-width: 663px) 100vw, 663px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/semi.png?w=663&amp;ssl=1 663w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/semi.png?resize=150%2C112&amp;ssl=1 150w\" alt=\"Semiconductor Sector\" width=\"663\" height=\"495\" data-attachment-id=\"68138\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/nftrh.com\/2019\/01\/21\/semiconductor-sector-nftrh-535-excerpt\/semi-13\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/semi.png?fit=663%2C495&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"663,495\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"semi\" data-image-description=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/semi.png?fit=663%2C495&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/semi.png?fit=663%2C495&amp;ssl=1\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" data-lazy-loaded=\"1\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Here is the updated version of this chart, from SEMI per this industry review\u2026<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blog.semi.org\/business-markets\/its-chilly\"><strong>It\u2019s Chilly!<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/semi2.png?ssl=1\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"jetpack-lazy-image jetpack-lazy-image--handled aligncenter wp-image-68139 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/semi2.png?resize=614%2C466&amp;ssl=1\" sizes=\"(max-width: 614px) 100vw, 614px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/semi2.png?w=614&amp;ssl=1 614w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/semi2.png?resize=150%2C114&amp;ssl=1 150w\" alt=\"Semiconductor Sector\" width=\"614\" height=\"466\" data-attachment-id=\"68139\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/nftrh.com\/2019\/01\/21\/semiconductor-sector-nftrh-535-excerpt\/semi2-4\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/semi2.png?fit=614%2C466&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"614,466\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"semi2\" data-image-description=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/semi2.png?fit=614%2C466&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/semi2.png?fit=614%2C466&amp;ssl=1\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" data-lazy-loaded=\"1\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Over a one-year period the cycle has continued to consolidate but has not yet gone negative.<\/p>\n<p>From the article\u2026<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Semiconductor shipment growth (although still positive) peaked in early 2018.\u00a0 Globally it was up only 4.6% in November 2018 versus the same month a year earlier and its trajectory is pointing down. This compares to +23.7% growth in December 2017.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>That is confirmation that our 2018 view was correct going back to Q4 2017.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Semiconductor equipment shipments (Chart 6) actually contracted 0.6% globally for just the month of November 2018 vs. November 2017. They are traditionally more volatile than semiconductor sales.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/semi3.png?ssl=1\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"jetpack-lazy-image jetpack-lazy-image--handled aligncenter wp-image-68140 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/semi3.png?resize=618%2C468&amp;ssl=1\" sizes=\"(max-width: 618px) 100vw, 618px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/semi3.png?w=618&amp;ssl=1 618w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/semi3.png?resize=150%2C114&amp;ssl=1 150w\" alt=\"Semiconductor Sector\" width=\"618\" height=\"468\" data-attachment-id=\"68140\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/nftrh.com\/2019\/01\/21\/semiconductor-sector-nftrh-535-excerpt\/semi3\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/semi3.png?fit=618%2C468&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"618,468\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"semi3\" data-image-description=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/semi3.png?fit=618%2C468&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/semi3.png?fit=618%2C468&amp;ssl=1\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" data-lazy-loaded=\"1\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>This is exactly why I watch the likes of Equipment suppliers AMAT and LRCX as opposed to Intel or other chip makers, for example. These Equipment companies have been impaired by the US\/China trade war and so with Trump and China making nice there is the potential for at least a cyclical bounce.<\/p>\n<p>As to SEMI\u2019s conclusion below, if an industry expert says there is a \u201cnormal\u201d winter slowdown, I\u2019ll go with that. The political uncertainty is as easy to remedy as the Bull in the China Shop (Trump) realizing that he has been impairing his own economic cycle. The \u201cmemory shifts\u201d noted are probably the over-supply of NAND on the market.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The normal winter seasonal industry slowdown is upon us and it is being overlaid with economic softness, political uncertainty, product (memory) shifts and general industry weakening.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The\u00a0<strong>bottom line<\/strong>\u00a0as I see it is that projections have been for renewed growth in Q2 or Q3 2019. Relief on the trade front would help there. Assuming the projections are accurate (always a valid question), we can watch AMAT, LRCX and the Equipment segment for any economic front-running they might display (as in 2013) or fail to display.<\/p>\n<p>Check back to see my next post!<\/p>\n<p>Best,<br \/>\nGary Tanashian<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/biiwii.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Biiwii.com<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Subscribe to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/nftrh.com\/nftrh-premium\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>NFTRH Pre<\/strong><strong>mium<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0(<a href=\"https:\/\/www.paypal.com\/cgi-bin\/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&amp;hosted_button_id=G5KFQR5HPQLXQ\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">monthly at USD $33.50<\/a>\u00a0or a 14% discounted\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.paypal.com\/cgi-bin\/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&amp;hosted_button_id=F8ANRRZVBDWSU\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">yearly at USD $345.00<\/a>) for an in-depth\u00a0<strong>weekly market report<\/strong>,\u00a0<strong>interim market updates<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0<strong>NFTRH+ chart and trade setup ideas<\/strong>, all archived\/posted at the site and delivered to your inbox.<\/p>\n<p>You can also keep up to date with plenty of actionable public content at\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/nftrh.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NFTRH.com<\/a>\u00a0by using the\u00a0<strong>email form on the right sidebar<\/strong>\u00a0and get even\u00a0<em>more<\/em>\u00a0by\u00a0<strong><a href=\"http:\/\/eepurl.com\/dtg5gn\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">joining our<\/a>\u00a0free eLetter<\/strong>. Or follow via Twitter\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/follow?original_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fnftrh.com%2Ftestimonials%2F%C2%AEion=follow_link&amp;screen_name=BiiwiiNFTRH&amp;tw_p=followbutton\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">@BiiwiiNFTRH<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/stocktwits.com\/nftrh\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">StockTwits<\/a>\u00a0or\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/nftrh\/YDgV\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">RSS<\/a>. Also, check out the quality market writers at\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/biiwii.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Biiwii.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on the_content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As in January of 2013 (ahead of an economic up cycle) and Q4 2017-Q1 2018 (ahead of an economic ripple that began in 2018) the Semiconductor sector and in particular its Semi Equipment sub-sector are front and center in forming our analysis about coming events. Excerpted from the January 20th edition of\u00a0Notes From the Rabbit [&hellip;]<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":41,"featured_media":49011,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1840,4273,9526,8667],"class_list":["post-49009","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-biiwiicom","tag-gary-tanashian","tag-notes-from-the-rabbit-hole-nftrh","tag-semiconductor-sector"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.4 (Yoast SEO v23.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Semiconductor Sector - Watch The Early Bird In 2019 - INO.com Trader&#039;s Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Semiconductor sector and in particular its Semi Equipment sub-sector are front and center in forming our analysis about coming events.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2019\/01\/semiconductor-sector-watch-the-early-bird-in-2019\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Semiconductor Sector - 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