{"id":49191,"date":"2019-02-20T12:27:21","date_gmt":"2019-02-20T17:27:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=49191"},"modified":"2019-02-20T12:27:21","modified_gmt":"2019-02-20T17:27:21","slug":"how-i-learned-to-stop-worrying-and-love-the-deficit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2019\/02\/how-i-learned-to-stop-worrying-and-love-the-deficit\/","title":{"rendered":"How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love The Deficit"},"content":{"rendered":"

John Maynard Keynes is generally given credit for the economic axiom, \u201cWe owe it to ourselves.\u201d That idea has caught fire with the left in our country, who are now trumpeting a world where government deficits and debt \u2013 at least at the federal level \u2013 simply don\u2019t matter, because, well, see Lord Keynes. <\/p>\n

This idea even seems to have gotten sympathy \u2013 or at least, seems to be taken more seriously than you would have thought \u2013 by formerly level-headed financial publications such as the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg BusinessWeek. Both of them have published lengthy stories recently which have come to the same conclusion, namely that, yeah, this could actually work.<\/p>\n

Last week, the Journal\u2019s story<\/a><\/strong> was headlined \u201cWorry About Debt? Not So Fast, Some Economists Say,\u201d supported by the subhead, \u201cU.S. deficits may not matter so much after all\u2014and it might not hurt to expand them for the right reasons.\u201d A couple of weeks before that Businessweek\u2019s cover story<\/a><\/strong> featured the grande dame of the so-called progressive wing of the Democrat Party, Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. <\/p>\n

Both articles cited \u201cModern Monetary Theory,\u201d which the Journal explains \u201cargues that fiscal policymakers are not constrained by their ability to find investors to buy bonds that finance deficits\u2014because the U.S. government can, if necessary, print its own currency to finance deficits or repay bondholders\u2014but by the economy\u2019s ability to support all the additional spending and jobs without shortages and inflation cropping up.\u201d<\/p>\n

In other words, the federal government can just print lots of money, sell lots of bonds, and have the Federal Reserve, the Social Security Administration, and other government agencies buy them \u2013 as they already do \u2013 if private investors won\u2019t. Or as Lord Keynes said, \u201cwe owe it to ourselves.\u201d So what\u2019s the big deal?<\/p>\n

I suppose it shouldn\u2019t be surprising that the Journal, Businessweek, et al take MMT seriously \u2013 at least a lot more than they did a couple of months ago \u2013 because their reporting and editing staffs are mostly peopled with millennials in synch with AOC, angered about their high student debt loads, which makes it difficult to get a car loan \u2013 never mind a mortgage \u2013 or move out of their parents\u2019 homes. They have every right to be angry and want the government to provide the good things in life \u2013 for free, of course. MMT sounds too good not to be true, so therefore it must be.<\/p>\n

While I am just a tad skeptical that this economic theory will actually work, I am heartened by the fact that the left is refloating this boat while a Republican \u2013 and the despised President Donald Trump at that \u2013 is occupying the Oval Office. Generally, federal deficits are only something we need to be concerned about when a Republican is in office, as we saw during and after Trump managed to guide his tax cut through Congress two years ago. All we heard back then \u2013 and still do now, although to a diminishing degree since AOC became a political celebrity \u2013 was how big federal deficits were going to be, at least in the short term (which has proven to be true) and what a danger they would be to our economic and financial well-being. Deficits during Democrat administrations, by contrast, as we saw under President Obama, never pose any such problem.<\/p>\n

Quite clearly, these \u201cprogressives\u201d believe this is a winning campaign issue in 2020, so it\u2019s not too early to start beating the drums for it, even if they won\u2019t be able to bludgeon Trump and the Republicans with the deficit cudgel, although blatant hypocrisy has never stopped them before. <\/p>\n

Which leads me to another question, if debt isn\u2019t a worry anymore, why are most of these same people so adamant and belligerent about taxing the wealthy? For that matter, if deficits and debt don\u2019t matter, and the Fed will buy up everything the Treasury throws at it, why tax anyone? <\/p>\n

One of the arguments of the deficits-don\u2019t-matter crowd \u2013 including those serious professional economists who have latched onto it \u2013 is the current yield on Treasury securities. After all, they point out, the yield on Treasury securities are still at historic lows, even as the government borrows more and more money. As the Journal notes, federal government debt as a share of GDP has more than doubled to 78% at the end of last year from just 34% before the Great Recession, yet interest rates have gone down, not up. <\/p>\n

If deficits and federal debt are so bad and dangerous, how could interest rates be so low? This has been the case for several decades actually \u2013 federal deficits get bigger and bigger, the national debt grows and grows, yet interest rates stay low. Same goes for inflation.<\/p>\n

Maybe there\u2019s something to this MMT after all.<\/p>\n

So relax. Everything\u2019s going to be fine.<\/p>\n

Visit back to read my next article! <\/p>\n

George Yacik<\/a>
\nINO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates<\/p>\n

Disclosure: This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

John Maynard Keynes is generally given credit for the economic axiom, \u201cWe owe it to ourselves.\u201d That idea has caught fire with the left in our country, who are now trumpeting a world where government deficits and debt \u2013 at least at the federal level \u2013 simply don\u2019t matter, because, well, see Lord Keynes. This […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":49194,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6920],"tags":[12037,11390,6824,6938,12036,12035,5442,12038],"class_list":["post-49191","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ino-com-contributors","tag-federal-deficits","tag-federal-government-debt","tag-federal-open-market-committee-fomc","tag-george-yacik","tag-john-maynard-keynes","tag-modern-monetary-theory","tag-the-federal-reserve","tag-treasury-securities"],"yoast_head":"\nHow I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love The Deficit - INO.com Trader's Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Federal deficits are only something we need to be concerned about when a Republican is in office, as we saw with Presdient Trump's recent tax cuts.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2019\/02\/how-i-learned-to-stop-worrying-and-love-the-deficit\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love The Deficit - 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