{"id":49490,"date":"2019-04-11T13:00:55","date_gmt":"2019-04-11T17:00:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=49490"},"modified":"2019-04-11T11:59:37","modified_gmt":"2019-04-11T15:59:37","slug":"gold-and-silver-still-on-the-road-to-a-low-risk-setup","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2019\/04\/gold-and-silver-still-on-the-road-to-a-low-risk-setup\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold And Silver Still On The Road To A Low Risk Setup"},"content":{"rendered":"

From a\u00a0post on gold and silver<\/a>\u00a0on Tuesday\u2026<\/p>\n

Very simply, if it\u2019s an H&S it\u2019s a minor one with a target to the SMA 200 or short-term lateral support.\u00a0Gold has curled back up to test the underside of its SMA 50. A takeout of 1310 and then the March high could put yeller back in business. Otherwise, don\u2019t personalize it. A test of the SMA 200 would be normal.<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The H&S was not my thing. I tend not to get overly excited about short-term patterns and surely do not announce them far and wide to stir people up. It was a product of the gold\u00a0community<\/em>, some members of which have been flipping in head-spinning fashion between bullish and bearish views. I note it again because I don\u2019t want that stink on me. The upside and downside parameters above were my stuff.<\/p>\n

Per the\u00a0NFTRH<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0Trade Log, I shorted a chunk of GLD yesterday (while remaining long gold stocks and even more so, cyclical assets on balance) as gold poked the SMA 50 per the Futures chart below. Gold\u2019s pullback today was not engineered by the Fed or da Boyz or da PPT, PtB, Trump, Mnuchin or some nefarious super algo. It\u2019s normal. Okay, conspiracy mongers? N.O.R.M.A.L.<\/p>\n

Click the chart for a clearer view of gold\u2019s situation at the SMA 50. If it does not clear the March high the SMA 200 (at least) continues to yawn with its gaping maw. 1240 is also doable.<\/p>\n

\"gold\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Silver looks particularly lame, but ironically this is the metal I am expecting to bottom first with the question being the two noted (green) support areas. Don\u2019t rule out 14.50.<\/p>\n

\"silver\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The Commitments of Traders have simply not been ready yet, despite declarations to the contrary coming out of the\u00a0community<\/em>\u00a0lately. It\u2019s the CoT trends that matter and they have not appeared complete to a contrary bullish situation.<\/p>\n

Here they are as presented in\u00a0NFTRH 546<\/strong>\u00a0(April 7) with the data as of April 2.<\/p>\n

First of all, the Commitments of Traders trends do not yet appear complete. While moving in the right direction for an eventual low risk condition, gold\u2019s CoT is more consistent with a top than a bottom. On a slightly positive note, small Specs finally started getting less bullish.<\/p>\n

\"gold<\/a><\/p>\n

The silver CoT is much better, but there is vulnerability in that it is not at an extreme, which is usually required to make a sustainable silver low.<\/p>\n

\"silver<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Meanwhile, there is much more to the story including the ratios of the miners to the metals and the all-important macro and sector fundamentals. The above are just two angles for analyzing a situation that requires several more to gain full perspective. It\u2019s not as simple as\u00a0\u2018dovish Fed = bullish gold and silver and if it does not happen right away it\u2019s manipulation!\u2019<\/em><\/p>\n

The process has been ongoing since gold became extremely overbought in relation to cyclical and risk \u2018on\u2019 US\/global assets and markets. As suggested above,\u00a0\u201cdon\u2019t personalize it\u201d\u00a0<\/em>and for crying out loud when you read stuff about China\u2019s new economic growth * and its demand for gold (as is currently being promoted as a major gold price driver) tune that crap out!<\/p>\n

I have been as\u00a0constructive on China<\/a>\u00a0as the next guy (and probably before the next guy in the midst of the Trade War furor in Q4 2018), but the linkage to bullish gold, like so many other cyclical inflation-related promos is pure fantasy. The two situations can happen simultaneously as they did early last decade, but the old \u2018China demand\u2019 promo would at best drive other industrial and pro-economic assets (and also silver) better than gold.\u00a0
\n<\/em><\/p>\n

* And we can tap the breaks on the enthusiasm based on just 1 month of China PMI growth. Here\u2019s the chart from\u00a0NFTRH 546<\/strong>. The spike was in line with our constructive view, but there is more work to do.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"china<\/a><\/p>\n

Check back to see my next post!<\/p>\n

Best,
\nGary Tanashian
\nBiiwii.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Subscribe to\u00a0NFTRH Pre<\/strong>mium<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0(monthly at USD $33.50<\/a>\u00a0or a 14% discounted\u00a0yearly at USD $345.00<\/a>) for an in-depth\u00a0weekly market report<\/strong>,\u00a0interim market updates<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0NFTRH+ chart and trade setup ideas<\/strong>, all archived\/posted at the site and delivered to your inbox.<\/p>\n

You can also keep up to date with plenty of actionable public content at\u00a0NFTRH.com<\/a>\u00a0by using the\u00a0email form on the right sidebar<\/strong>\u00a0and get even\u00a0more<\/em>\u00a0by\u00a0joining our<\/a>\u00a0free eLetter<\/strong>. Or follow via Twitter\u00a0@BiiwiiNFTRH<\/a>,\u00a0StockTwits<\/a>\u00a0or\u00a0RSS<\/a>. Also, check out the quality market writers at\u00a0Biiwii.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

From a\u00a0post on gold and silver\u00a0on Tuesday\u2026 Very simply, if it\u2019s an H&S it\u2019s a minor one with a target to the SMA 200 or short-term lateral support.\u00a0Gold has curled back up to test the underside of its SMA 50. A takeout of 1310 and then the March high could put yeller back in business. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":41,"featured_media":49492,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1840,4273,5519,7526,9526,6613,7501,102],"class_list":["post-49490","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-biiwiicom","tag-gary-tanashian","tag-gold-forexxauusdo","tag-gold-chart-analysis","tag-notes-from-the-rabbit-hole-nftrh","tag-silver-forexxagusdo","tag-silver-chart-analysis","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"\nGold And Silver Still On The Road To A Low Risk Setup - INO.com Trader's Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Silver looks particularly lame, but ironically this is the metal I am expecting to bottom first with the question being the two noted support areas.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2019\/04\/gold-and-silver-still-on-the-road-to-a-low-risk-setup\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Gold And Silver Still On The Road To A Low Risk Setup - 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