{"id":49559,"date":"2019-04-25T07:00:14","date_gmt":"2019-04-25T11:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=49559"},"modified":"2019-04-24T22:12:53","modified_gmt":"2019-04-25T02:12:53","slug":"goldilocks-now-but-shell-be-vanquished","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2019\/04\/goldilocks-now-but-shell-be-vanquished\/","title":{"rendered":"Goldilocks Now, But She'll Be Vanquished"},"content":{"rendered":"

Just one look at the daily chart of SPX tells us - in hindsight - that this may have all been about gap acquisition. I was completely right and righteous to be bullish on the Christmas Eve massacre low, right on up to the 50-day moving average, which was the original target.<\/p>\n

After that, I was compelled by the market\u2019s technicals to be bullish for a drive to the SMA 200, and then 2815 resistance, and then\u2026 a top-test. I not only felt not righteous with these compulsions, I felt a little soiled. Hey, it\u2019s just a human (as opposed to a newsletter writer\/market commentator) talking about human feelings.<\/p>\n

There is a difference between being contrary and willingly bullish and being compelled to be bullish. I don\u2019t like the feeling of that second thing very much. Anyway, there is a gap and do you know what? Last summer\u2019s rally filled a similar gap (not shown here) from late January 2018, proceeded upward into a nice bull trap, and then October happened. FYI. The bears were disoriented and thus pissed all last summer. But any self-respecting bull trap would by definition piss the bears off because it\u2019s the same psychology that traps the bulls, only in reverse.<\/p>\n

\"spx\"<\/a><\/p>\n

So SPX is finally at its top-test limit, with its leadership chain\u00a0(SOX>NDX>SPX)<\/strong>\u00a0still strong as NDX is at new highs and SOX is well into new highs. We also have the scenario of SPX to 3000 (+\/-) open if it is to hit point 5 on a\u00a0potential<\/em>\u00a0Megaphone.<\/p>\n

\"spx\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Where Goldilocks comes in is reflected in the still-strong US dollar, which is threatening to break upward out of the nose of a Symmetrical Triangle, per this chart from NFTRH<\/a>\u00a0548<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

\"goldilocks\"<\/a><\/p>\n

She is reflected in sideways going \u2018inflation gauges\u2019.<\/p>\n

\"tip\/ief<\/a><\/p>\n

This has been the case for all of 2019 as relief sweeps over US and global markets and the US maintains its leadership. To make matters worse (or better, depending on how you view it), not only has the wondrous stock rally not changed the Fed\u2019s mind about a rate hike in 2019 (according to CME futures traders predicting no chance of a hike next week), they still predict no hike in 2019 and\u00a0increasing odds of a cut or two by year-end<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

\"fomc<\/a><\/p>\n

A result is a stock market at and beyond its highs, the Fed on hold, the 2yr yield still in submission (beckoning the Fed to ease) and yet the US dollar gaining the global bid, same as it seems it always is.<\/p>\n

\"goldilocks\"<\/a><\/p>\n

As long as this condition persists she is going to remain in da house, sleeping in the little bear\u2019s bed, eating his porridge and pissing some people off. She only annoys me, because it is my job to only be annoyed on occasion but to remain steady and dealing with what\u00a0is<\/em>.<\/p>\n

I also think that with patience through this obnoxiousness, the macro is going to break one way or the other, and probably in 2019. That would be a yield curve steepener under either deflationary or inflationary pains. Ref. the TIP\/IEF ratio above. We\u2019re not going to go perma-sideways.<\/p>\n

So here is the big daddy of macro indicators, our former Amigo #3, the Yield Curve. If you look carefully you\u2019ll notice and recall that SPX started to fade at the end of September, after the curve had begun steepening (ill-fated though that little steepener was on the big picture). This time the curve has jumped again in similar fashion against a manic bullish stock market.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t want to get bears\u2019 hopes up in the micro-term, but what\u2019s different now from September? RSI and MACD are more mature and set up better. While a million miles away from the 200 day average in September the curve is approaching it now. Trends change in a much slower time than your brain processes its desires. So\u2026 patience. The macro may change yet and that little bastard will get kicked out of the house sooner or later.<\/p>\n

\"yield<\/a><\/p>\n

Check back to see my next post!<\/p>\n

Best,
\nGary Tanashian
\nBiiwii.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Subscribe to\u00a0NFTRH Pre<\/strong>mium<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0(monthly at USD $33.50<\/a>\u00a0or a 14% discounted\u00a0yearly at USD $345.00<\/a>) for an in-depth\u00a0weekly market report<\/strong>,\u00a0interim market updates<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0NFTRH+ chart and trade setup ideas<\/strong>, all archived\/posted at the site and delivered to your inbox.<\/p>\n

You can also keep up to date with plenty of actionable public content at\u00a0NFTRH.com<\/a>\u00a0by using the\u00a0email form on the right sidebar<\/strong>\u00a0and get even\u00a0more<\/em>\u00a0by\u00a0joining our<\/a>\u00a0free eLetter<\/strong>. Or follow via Twitter\u00a0@BiiwiiNFTRH<\/a>,\u00a0StockTwits<\/a>\u00a0or\u00a0RSS<\/a>. Also, check out the quality market writers at\u00a0Biiwii.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Just one look at the daily chart of SPX tells us - in hindsight - that this may have all been about gap acquisition. I was completely right and righteous to be bullish on the Christmas Eve massacre low, right on up to the 50-day moving average, which was the original target. After that, I […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":31,"featured_media":49560,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6920],"tags":[1840,4273,12766,9526,976,6544],"class_list":["post-49559","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ino-com-contributors","tag-biiwiicom","tag-gary-tanashian","tag-goldilocks","tag-notes-from-the-rabbit-hole-nftrh","tag-sp-500","tag-u-s-dollar-index"],"yoast_head":"\nGoldilocks Now, But She'll Be Vanquished - INO.com Trader's Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Where Goldilocks comes in is reflected in the still-strong US dollar, which is threatening to break upward out of the nose of a Symmetrical Triangle.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2019\/04\/goldilocks-now-but-shell-be-vanquished\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Goldilocks Now, But She'll Be Vanquished - 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