{"id":49840,"date":"2019-06-04T08:00:27","date_gmt":"2019-06-04T12:00:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=49840"},"modified":"2019-06-03T23:33:07","modified_gmt":"2019-06-04T03:33:07","slug":"you-have-to-invite-the-vampire-into-your-house","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2019\/06\/you-have-to-invite-the-vampire-into-your-house\/","title":{"rendered":"You Have To Invite The Vampire Into Your House"},"content":{"rendered":"

A vampire needs to be invited in order to enter your house. So the story goes. But in this case, we are talking about the Macro house, with its nexus in the USA and its Central Bank.<\/p>\n

You see, the Federal Reserve inflates money supplies as a matter of doing business, which is why I noted so strenuously in Q4 2018 that Jerome Powell\u2019s then-hawkish stance in the face of a declining stock market made perfect sense\u2026 because the 30 year Treasury bond was not bullish; it was bearish and getting more so under the pressure of rising inflation expectations.<\/p>\n

But now as we noted the other day\u00a0the inflated Sub is losing pressure<\/a>. As we noted before that\u00a0Goldilocks is being threatened<\/a>. Here are the updated \u2018inflation gauges\u2019 from that post, continuing to lose pressure.<\/p>\n

\"Q4<\/a><\/p>\n

But in Q4 the Fed had a threat if its own to deal with as the repercussions of its previous inflationary operations could be exposed to the light of day by the breakout through the Continuum\u2019s limiter if it were not arrested promptly. The orange arrow on the chart below shows the point of concern for the Fed.<\/p>\n

Our thesis of the time was that an impulsive breakout in long-term bond yields would end the Fed\u2019s inflationary racket and thus, end the Fed itself (as we know it). Our view was that given the choice between an imploding stock market and a fatal breakdown in the long bond (break up in the yield) the choice for the Fed would be a no-brainer. And what do you know\u2026 the Continuum\u2019s limiter held yet again.<\/p>\n

\"tyx\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Here is an excerpt from the December 19th edition of\u00a0Notes from the Rabbit Hole<\/strong><\/a>\u2026<\/p>\n

NFTRH 530 (FOMC at Center Stage)<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

And here is an excerpt from that excerpt\u2026<\/p>\n

\"Q4<\/a><\/p>\n

And as to the last sentence above, the herd buys the bond and invites the damn vampire into the house!<\/p>\n

You see, the current Continuum looks a lot different now than it did in Q4 2018, doesn\u2019t it? Inflation is absolutely not an issue right now and if it is an issue, that issue is that it is not high enough to sustain bloated bubble markets that depend on more inflation to come.<\/p>\n

What is happening now is that the Fed\u2019s inflation gun is being re-loaded,\u00a0gold is breaking out again<\/a> and of course, the CME Fed Funds futures boyz<\/a>\u00a0have been predicting increasing odds of a rate cut in 2019 as the year moves along. By piling into the long bond, market players (man, machine, casino patron, Ma & Pa) are inviting the Fed\u2019s next inflationary action. Unlike in Q4 2018 when Trump was haranguing the Fed chief relentlessly, the table is set and the vampire is coming to dinner.<\/p>\n

\"Q4<\/a><\/p>\n

Aside from T bonds, the gold sector is the first and best mover in pre-inflationary cycles like this. The move usually comes amid destruction in the cyclical world. We noted some of the\u00a0improving macro fundamentals for the gold sector<\/a>\u00a0on Thursday. On Wednesday we noted that\u00a0some markets you would not expect are out-performing the US<\/a>.<\/p>\n

It all makes (macro) sense and so it is recommended that casino patrons shift from a US-centric view and also start taking precious metals more seriously now. After all, that sector was\u00a0under revolt from its own patrons<\/a>\u00a0just a couple days ago. The\u00a0Golden Bull Horns sounded<\/a>\u00a0back in February, the sector was appropriately punished and\u00a0lessons were learned (yet again)<\/a>. But as with the cleaner backdrop that the Fed operates against today vs. Q4 2018, gold bug sentiment is much cleaner than it was in February (and as a bonus, the inflationists are all gone).<\/p>\n

Check back to see my next post!<\/p>\n

Best,
\nGary Tanashian
\nBiiwii.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Subscribe to\u00a0NFTRH Pre<\/strong>mium<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0(monthly at USD $33.50<\/a>\u00a0or a 14% discounted\u00a0yearly at USD $345.00<\/a>) for an in-depth\u00a0weekly market report<\/strong>,\u00a0interim market updates<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0NFTRH+ chart and trade setup ideas<\/strong>, all archived\/posted at the site and delivered to your inbox.<\/p>\n

You can also keep up to date with plenty of actionable public content at\u00a0NFTRH.com<\/a>\u00a0by using the\u00a0email form on the right sidebar<\/strong>\u00a0and get even\u00a0more<\/em>\u00a0by\u00a0joining our<\/a>\u00a0free eLetter<\/strong>. Or follow via Twitter\u00a0@BiiwiiNFTRH<\/a>,\u00a0StockTwits<\/a>\u00a0or\u00a0RSS<\/a>. Also, check out the quality market writers at\u00a0Biiwii.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A vampire needs to be invited in order to enter your house. So the story goes. But in this case, we are talking about the Macro house, with its nexus in the USA and its Central Bank. 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