{"id":49926,"date":"2019-06-17T07:00:22","date_gmt":"2019-06-17T11:00:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=49926"},"modified":"2019-06-15T11:19:46","modified_gmt":"2019-06-15T15:19:46","slug":"gold-stock-launch-is-in-line-with-fundamentals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2019\/06\/gold-stock-launch-is-in-line-with-fundamentals\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Stock \"Launch\" Is In Line With Fundamentals"},"content":{"rendered":"

I make the point in the title because the real fundamentals that matter for the gold stock sector must be in line at the beginning of a real bull phase or bull market for the sector. I make that point with the example of Q1 2016, when a very powerful gold stock\u00a0\u201claunch\u201d<\/em>\u00a0erupted but in Q2 of that year we (NFTRH<\/a>) were already advising a degrading of those fundamentals. A public article I wrote referenced this on May 30, 2016.<\/p>\n

AMAT Chirps, b2b Ramps, Yellen Hawks and Gold\u2019s Fundamentals Erode<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

What had happened in 2016 was that gold bottomed first, followed by the miners and silver. But then the whole raft of cyclical assets (commodities, stocks, etc.) bottomed and turned up. A cyclical party soon regenerated and the counter-cyclical gold stock sector was sent back to the hell it came from.<\/p>\n

So again let\u2019s take a look at our visual that roughly represents the correct macro backdrop for a bullish fundamental view on gold stocks. The larger the planet, the more important the fundamental aspect. Gold\/Commodities should be a somewhat larger planet but work with me here. \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Add in the important component of the Fed and its increasing odds of 2019 rate cuts and well, you\u2019ve got the right backdrop for an undervalued sector (as we\u2019ve been noting for months in\u00a0NFTRH<\/a>\u00a0using unique comparisons of the gold\/commodities and gold\/oil ratios to the HUI index) to finally gain traction in the eyes of the wider investment community.<\/p>\n

Hence we noted the launch in this NFTRH subscriber update (now public) on June 3rd. Check out the entire post, but below is an excerpted bit.<\/p>\n

NFTRH; The Nature of the Gold Stock Launch<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

The pullbacks will come and they will be harsh. But if this is a launch, as would be indicated by the fundamentals slamming into gear, it\u2019s a buy\/add the pullbacks situation. I\u2019ll be keeping a close watch on the funda because if they remain strong I\u2019ll remain strong. If not, I won\u2019t. Right now they are strong and this launch from support reflects that.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Unfortunately, all too many people are obsessed with inflation as\u00a0the<\/em>\u00a0key fundamental for gold and worse yet, gold stocks. That is a pure canard and anyone pounding the table on cyclical inflation as a reason to own gold or the gold miners that leverage gold\u2019s relationships to cyclical assets is guiding incorrectly. Is it any wonder that so many have been routinely put off sides since mid-2016?<\/p>\n

I have stated my case (and it\u2019s a case put forth by a few quality others, most notably Bob Hoye) consistently and continue to do so. If the real fundamentals erode I\u2019ll become weak on the sector. But that is not what is happening currently and so I am strong on the sector (and have waited a long while to be able to write that).<\/p>\n

So this gappy\u00a0\u201claunch\u201d<\/em>\u00a0on volume is nothing to fear. Vertical? Yup. Impulsive? Yup. Pullbacks to come? Oh yeah. Something to fear? No, not as long as the macro and sector fundamentals remain in line.<\/p>\n

\"gold\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The weekly chart shows a point that might bring on some volatility. But again, if the fundamentals remain in hand volatility is your friend, not something to fear. Unfortunately for inflation-focused would-be gold bulls, nothing makes sense right now in the current disinflationary environment and so they will be paralyzed by confusion.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, I look forward to charting the best gold stocks I know of each week in\u00a0NFTRH<\/a>, from daily and weekly time frames along with the key fundamental charts and sector indicators. We\u2019ve been waiting a long while for this and if those fundamentals stay in hand it\u2019s going to be a rewarding 2019.<\/p>\n

\"gold\"<\/a><\/p>\n

[edit]<\/strong>\u00a0A few minutes after posting I came across this. It is a perfect example of what to completely ignore moving forward. Indeed, it comes with the gold stock sector generally approaching resistance. You can click the graphic if you want to read whatever the article is saying (I have not), but we must move forward on the fundamentals grinding into gear, not by inflammatory headlines, which are often short-term contrary indicators.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"gundlach\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Check back to see my next post!<\/p>\n

Best,
\nGary Tanashian
\nBiiwii.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Subscribe to\u00a0NFTRH Pre<\/strong>mium<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0(monthly at USD $33.50<\/a>\u00a0or a 14% discounted\u00a0yearly at USD $345.00<\/a>) for an in-depth\u00a0weekly market report<\/strong>,\u00a0interim market updates<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0NFTRH+ chart and trade setup ideas<\/strong>, all archived\/posted at the site and delivered to your inbox.<\/p>\n

You can also keep up to date with plenty of actionable public content at\u00a0NFTRH.com<\/a>\u00a0by using the\u00a0email form on the right sidebar<\/strong>\u00a0and get even\u00a0more<\/em>\u00a0by\u00a0joining our<\/a>\u00a0free eLetter<\/strong>. Or follow via Twitter\u00a0@BiiwiiNFTRH<\/a>,\u00a0StockTwits<\/a>\u00a0or\u00a0RSS<\/a>. Also, check out the quality market writers at\u00a0Biiwii.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I make the point in the title because the real fundamentals that matter for the gold stock sector must be in line at the beginning of a real bull phase or bull market for the sector. I make that point with the example of Q1 2016, when a very powerful gold stock\u00a0\u201claunch\u201d\u00a0erupted but in Q2 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":31,"featured_media":49927,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6920],"tags":[1840,4273,23,2567,4258,9526],"class_list":["post-49926","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ino-com-contributors","tag-biiwiicom","tag-gary-tanashian","tag-gold","tag-gold-analysis","tag-gold-miners","tag-notes-from-the-rabbit-hole-nftrh"],"yoast_head":"\nGold Stock "Launch" Is In Line With Fundamentals - INO.com Trader's Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Unfortunately, all too many people are obsessed with inflation as\u00a0the\u00a0key fundamental for gold and worse yet, gold stocks.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2019\/06\/gold-stock-launch-is-in-line-with-fundamentals\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Gold Stock "Launch" Is In Line With Fundamentals - 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