{"id":50372,"date":"2019-09-09T10:18:20","date_gmt":"2019-09-09T14:18:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=50372"},"modified":"2019-09-09T10:18:20","modified_gmt":"2019-09-09T14:18:20","slug":"precious-metals-were-ripe-for-a-pullback","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2019\/09\/precious-metals-were-ripe-for-a-pullback\/","title":{"rendered":"Precious Metals Were Ripe For A Pullback"},"content":{"rendered":"

If you hear one peep out of the gold\u00a0community<\/em>\u00a0about a precious metals\u00a0\u201ctakedown\u201d<\/em>,\u00a0\u201cattack\u201d<\/em>\u00a0or any other such aggressive or war-like language you will then be hearing some old fashioned and promotional gold bug orthodoxy. Fortunately, a casual look around the Bug-o-Sphere does not yield too many obvious conspiracy theorists or importantly, cheerleaders.<\/p>\n

Indeed, it seems that all too many bugs expected this correction in gold, silver and the miners. That is a good thing because when the real top comes these ladies are going to be out front and greed will be running rampant (quite possibly against a negative fundamental or valuation backdrop as in 2008).<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Instead, everybody, it seems knew about the high-risk Commitments of Traders situation for gold and silver. The CoT is not a timer, but for weeks now it had been a condition<\/em>\u00a0that\u2019s been in place for a correction. It\u2019s not a\u00a0\u201ctakedown\u201d<\/em>, it\u2019s a condition of too much speculation that had to be addressed. Now it is. Other\u00a0CoT data available here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"gold<\/a><\/p>\n

\"silver<\/a><\/p>\n

As the CoT,\u00a0Hulbert\u2019s HGNSI<\/a> and the extreme overbought readings first in the gold price, but then dynamically in the silver price and the miners gathered to form a high-risk situation, the time to take some profits was over the last couple of weeks, not now. Gold oriented newsletters appear to have jerked over bullish with the latest head-fake rise in the gold price.<\/p>\n

\"hulbert<\/a><\/p>\n

Now is the time for prepared players to be thinking like buyers once again. Personally, it\u2019s been a while (May-June) since I\u2019ve had similar thoughts. The initial price target for gold has been the mid to high 1500s and folks, gold is not only not obligated to go any higher in the near-term, it shouldn\u2019t go higher unless it would create a more dangerous blow-off type situation.<\/p>\n

In line with other markers shown above, it\u2019s a very normal point for a pullback from an extreme overbought situation. Early in the precious metals rally, we noted it was a \u201claunch\u201d<\/em>, not a blow-off as some gold perma-bears were calling it. But now we\u2019ve likely had a mini blow off of the launch phase<\/em>\u00a0if that makes any sense.<\/p>\n

\"gold\"<\/a><\/p>\n

After gold crossed its bull\/bear line at 1378 back in June, silver stored up all that energy and went nearly vertical over the last 1.5 months. It took out the\u00a0NFTRH<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0\u2018best\u2019 target for the move, which was in the 18.60s. I had no sooner noted that\u00a0I was wrong<\/a>\u00a0on the exact target when on the weekly candle I turned out to be right again. Funny how these things work.<\/p>\n

\"silver\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Bottom Line<\/strong><\/p>\n

Gold, silver and the miners needed a pullback from extremely overbought readings. Just as bear market rallies can be pretty intense, so too can bull market pullbacks. That is not to say the precious metals are in a major bull market. For several valid reasons that assertion is far from proven. So, for now, we\u2019ll let the ladies above do the cheering and go about carrying a rational narrative forward (to be continued in this weekend\u2019s NFTRH 567<\/strong>).<\/p>\n

Our conservative targets for HUI are significantly higher even in the event that the sector is not in a major bull. I like that; manage conservatively (which had us fully prepared for this week\u2019s pullback) but also be ready to capitalize.<\/p>\n

This weekend we begin the work of plotting pullback buy levels in the miners and the metals. But we also keep open minds with respect to how overdone the sector became amid the media-stoked fears of the trade war, the inverted yield curve (a non-issue in the short-term) and other such things that investors and the public have been jittery about. Why there is even a positive economic glimmer in play<\/a> as illustrated earlier today. In 2003 to 2007 the gold sector played well with an inflationary economic upcycle. That could be in play again. But only weekly work will confirm or deny that and other cases.<\/p>\n

Check back to see my next post!<\/p>\n

Best,
\nGary Tanashian
\nnftrh.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Subscribe to\u00a0NFTRH Pre<\/strong>mium<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0(monthly at USD $33.50<\/a>\u00a0or a 14% discounted\u00a0yearly at USD $345.00<\/a>) for an in-depth\u00a0weekly market report<\/strong>,\u00a0interim market updates<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0NFTRH+ chart and trade setup ideas<\/strong>, all archived\/posted at the site and delivered to your inbox. [Note: the subscription rate to the value-priced NFTRH service will increase near summer\u2019s end, so if you are considering a subscription don\u2019t wait to lock in the current rate]<\/strong><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

You can also keep up to date with plenty of actionable public content at\u00a0NFTRH.com<\/a>\u00a0by using the\u00a0email form on the right sidebar<\/strong>\u00a0and get even\u00a0more<\/em>\u00a0by\u00a0joining our<\/a>\u00a0free eLetter<\/strong>. Or follow via Twitter\u00a0@BiiwiiNFTRH<\/a>,\u00a0StockTwits<\/a>\u00a0or\u00a0RSS<\/a>. Also, check out the quality market writers at\u00a0nftrh.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

If you hear one peep out of the gold\u00a0community\u00a0about a precious metals\u00a0\u201ctakedown\u201d,\u00a0\u201cattack\u201d\u00a0or any other such aggressive or war-like language you will then be hearing some old fashioned and promotional gold bug orthodoxy. Fortunately, a casual look around the Bug-o-Sphere does not yield too many obvious conspiracy theorists or importantly, cheerleaders. Indeed, it seems that all […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":31,"featured_media":50373,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6920],"tags":[3438,4273,23,9526,307,294,102],"class_list":["post-50372","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ino-com-contributors","tag-chart-analysis","tag-gary-tanashian","tag-gold","tag-notes-from-the-rabbit-hole-nftrh","tag-precious-metals","tag-silver","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"\nPrecious Metals Were Ripe For A Pullback - INO.com Trader's Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Gold, silver and the miners needed a pullback from overbought readings. 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