{"id":50392,"date":"2019-09-14T08:00:32","date_gmt":"2019-09-14T12:00:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=50392"},"modified":"2019-09-13T21:22:00","modified_gmt":"2019-09-14T01:22:00","slug":"market-management-101-balance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2019\/09\/market-management-101-balance\/","title":{"rendered":"Market Management 101: Balance"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I cannot profess to tell others how to effectively manage their accounts because I am a lowly participant who is learning all the time. The truth is that 2019\u2019s learning is much different than 2018\u2019s learning was, which was different than 2016, 2011, 2008\/2009 and other pivotal market phases. So I\u2019d say that the biggest lesson to learn has been the concept of marrying adaptability with discipline.<\/p>\n<p>Cookie-cutter advisors and brokers have it easier. They\u2019re the majority of market professionals and they\u2019ve learned and set in stone <em>the<\/em> way of allocating into markets; 60\/40 stocks to bonds or some such variant. But for something more effective than \u2018cookie-cutter\u2019, you need to keep learning, adapting and holding discipline as long as your signals remain valid.<\/p>\n<p>As for the current situation and speaking personally, it usually does not work out like this, especially when anticipating a corrective phase in the precious metals. The way it usually works is that I underestimate the intensity of a correction that I am pretty sure is coming and either I don\u2019t sell quite enough, don\u2019t hedge correctly (timing-wise) or don\u2019t balance the portfolios optimally, even if the balancing seemed logical at the time it was undertaken. Often that is because the last market situation is not going to be like the next one. Automatic, cookie-cutter thinking need not apply. Adaptability.<\/p>\n<p>Well somehow today, with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2019\/09\/precious-metals-were-ripe-for-a-pullback\/\">gold and silver stocks<\/a> way off their highs (and GDX &amp; GDXJ painting bogus looking engulfing candles) I am right at my personal portfolio\u2019s value highs for the year despite 2019\u2019s best trade having topped out a couple weeks ago. That is due to some combination of\u2026<!--more--><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Making sure I took ridiculous miner\/explorer profits, several of which exceeded 100%, despite (or maybe because of) my internal Greed-o-Meter spiking off the dial. Profits were taken routinely and with patience over a span of weeks as the miners became overbought, silver exploded through and in a day, pulled back below our upside target and the Commitments of Traders for gold and silver begged caution. Now I am still greedy, but in waiting for the next buying opportunity. We began plotting those levels in the miners and metals in\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/nftrh.com\/nftrh-premium\/\">NFTRH<\/a>\u00a0last weekend.<\/li>\n<li>Making sure I obeyed the technicals I saw (and illustrated in\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/nftrh.com\/nftrh-premium\/\">NFTRH<\/a>) on the stock market, using the SPX\u00a0<em>\u201cdrive to 5\u201d<\/em>\u00a0as an example. We tuned out gold bug dogma, realized that\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/nftrh.com\/2019\/09\/05\/what-thing-looks-like-the-other-thing\/\">gold was tethered to the long bond<\/a>\u00a0in the eyes of the herds that were likely to pivot from media-induced fear to relief and maybe eventually, greed. SPX chose its direction, it was up, but stocks are not out of the woods in my opinion. No, they\u2019re just doing some upside business, burning the shorts and sucking in the FOMOs in the process. I\u2019ve begun slowly selling into this rally.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/spx-1.png?ssl=1\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-76129 jetpack-lazy-image jetpack-lazy-image--handled\" src=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/spx-1.png?resize=700%2C850&amp;ssl=1\" sizes=\"(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/spx-1.png?w=700&amp;ssl=1 700w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/spx-1.png?resize=124%2C150&amp;ssl=1 124w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/spx-1.png?resize=659%2C800&amp;ssl=1 659w\" alt=\"spx\" width=\"700\" height=\"850\" data-attachment-id=\"76129\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/nftrh.com\/2019\/09\/13\/market-management-101-balance\/spx-357\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/spx-1.png?fit=700%2C850&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"700,850\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"spx\" data-image-description=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/spx-1.png?fit=659%2C800&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/spx-1.png?fit=700%2C850&amp;ssl=1\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" data-lazy-loaded=\"1\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Keeping one eye on the short-term bearish bond view\u00a0<em>[yeah, me and the other guy\u2026 we\u2019ll call him a Macro Tourist :-)]<\/em>\u00a0and the other on things like the Semiconductor sector I\u2019ve tried to pick the right sectors to be bullish for the drive to what I think could be a handy bull trap upcoming. But the bottom line is that portfolio balancing has worked well this year, regardless of the market view (and there is a favored view, but there is also a developing though less favored alternate. Remember\u2026\u00a0<strong>adaptability and the discipline to avoid the pitfalls of bias and dogma<\/strong>).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>I think that sooner rather than later the time for balance will shift to a time to once again lean in a favored direction. At this time the lean projects to be long the gold sector at the next buying opportunity and defensive to bearish on US stocks, with an open-minded view as signaled by the Semi sector and its projected cyclical bottom in H2 2019 (the <em>technical<\/em>\u00a0bottom is well behind us).<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, we go through the stock market\u2019s upside FOMO fest and the precious metals\u2019 correction with a little event called\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/nftrh.com\/2019\/09\/12\/10yr-yields-cesi-and-the-run-up-to-fomc\/\">FOMC on the near horizon<\/a>. If you click that link you\u2019ll see some reasoning as to why Mr. Powell may not sound like quite the dove the happy bulls are expecting.<\/p>\n<p>If you click the graphic below you will find an article from MarketWatch telling of the \u201ctailwind\u201d in stocks, per Credit Suisse. I will simply ask you to compare headlines like this \u2013 appearing as SPX nears point #5 on the chart above \u2013 to media headlines about the dreaded Trade War and all that cable news talk about the\u00a0<strong><em>\u201cInverted Yield Curve!!!\u201d<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0alarming the public a few weeks ago. The public:\u00a0<em>\u201cI don\u2019t know WTF an inverted\u00a0 yield curve is but I sure don\u2019t like the sound of it!\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/stocks-have-sufficient-tailwind-to-climb-higher-keep-buying-credit-suisse-2019-09-13?mod=mw_theo_homepage\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-76146 jetpack-lazy-image jetpack-lazy-image--handled\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/headline-1.png?resize=642%2C460&amp;ssl=1\" sizes=\"(max-width: 642px) 100vw, 642px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/headline-1.png?w=642&amp;ssl=1 642w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/headline-1.png?resize=150%2C107&amp;ssl=1 150w\" alt=\"\" width=\"642\" height=\"460\" data-attachment-id=\"76146\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/nftrh.com\/2019\/09\/13\/market-management-101-balance\/headline-44\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/headline-1.png?fit=642%2C460&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"642,460\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"headline\" data-image-description=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/headline-1.png?fit=642%2C460&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/headline-1.png?fit=642%2C460&amp;ssl=1\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" data-lazy-loaded=\"1\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>A setup appears to be taking shape and unbalanced players are likely to get hammered. Wash, rinse\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Check back to see my next post!<\/p>\n<p>Best,<br \/>\nGary Tanashian<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/nftrh.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">nftrh.com<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Subscribe to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/nftrh.com\/nftrh-premium\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong>NFTRH Pre<\/strong><strong>mium<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0(<a href=\"https:\/\/www.paypal.com\/cgi-bin\/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&amp;hosted_button_id=G5KFQR5HPQLXQ\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">monthly at USD $33.50<\/a>\u00a0or a 14% discounted\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.paypal.com\/cgi-bin\/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&amp;hosted_button_id=F8ANRRZVBDWSU\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">yearly at USD $345.00<\/a>) for an in-depth\u00a0<strong>weekly market report<\/strong>,\u00a0<strong>interim market updates<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0<strong>NFTRH+ chart and trade setup ideas<\/strong>, all archived\/posted at the site and delivered to your inbox. <\/p>\n<p>You can also keep up to date with plenty of actionable public content at\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/nftrh.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NFTRH.com<\/a>\u00a0by using the\u00a0<strong>email form on the right sidebar<\/strong>\u00a0and get even\u00a0<em>more<\/em>\u00a0by\u00a0<strong><a href=\"http:\/\/eepurl.com\/dtg5gn\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">joining our<\/a>\u00a0free eLetter<\/strong>. Or follow via Twitter\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/follow?original_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fnftrh.com%2Ftestimonials%2F%C2%AEion=follow_link&amp;screen_name=BiiwiiNFTRH&amp;tw_p=followbutton\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">@BiiwiiNFTRH<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/stocktwits.com\/nftrh\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">StockTwits<\/a>\u00a0or\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/nftrh\/YDgV\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">RSS<\/a>. Also, check out the quality market writers at\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/nftrh.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">nftrh.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on the_content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I cannot profess to tell others how to effectively manage their accounts because I am a lowly participant who is learning all the time. The truth is that 2019\u2019s learning is much different than 2018\u2019s learning was, which was different than 2016, 2011, 2008\/2009 and other pivotal market phases. So I\u2019d say that the biggest [&hellip;]<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":31,"featured_media":50395,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6920],"tags":[4273,9526,14427,1842],"class_list":["post-50392","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ino-com-contributors","tag-gary-tanashian","tag-notes-from-the-rabbit-hole-nftrh","tag-sp-500-spx","tag-spx"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.4 (Yoast SEO v23.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Market Management 101: Balance - INO.com Trader&#039;s Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"I cannot profess to tell others how to effectively manage their accounts because I am a lowly participant who is learning all the time.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2019\/09\/market-management-101-balance\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Market Management 101: Balance - 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