{"id":50734,"date":"2019-11-04T07:00:48","date_gmt":"2019-11-04T12:00:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=50734"},"modified":"2019-11-03T09:54:07","modified_gmt":"2019-11-03T14:54:07","slug":"gold-silver-beware-of-extended-consolidation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2019\/11\/gold-silver-beware-of-extended-consolidation\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold & Silver: Beware Of Extended Consolidation"},"content":{"rendered":"

Gold and silver chart structures got synchronized, and I am happy to bring them back together in this post. <\/p>\n

Chart 1. Gold Daily: $1557=>$1458<\/h2>\n

\"gold<\/a>
\nChart courtesy of tradingview.com<\/em><\/small><\/p>\n

In my earlier post<\/a>, I shared with you a detailed 4-hour chart<\/a> of gold with a bullish outlook. Fortunately, the price had indeed gone higher and booked $27 per each ounce since then. I set the confirmation above $1520, which wasn't triggered yet, although we were very close as a high was hit at $1518 at the end of October.<\/p>\n

I think that setup is not valid anymore as there are signs of an extended consolidation appearing on the chart. I updated it for you above. The first alert came after the price couldn't overcome the $1520 barrier and quickly dropped back below $1500 to hit $1481. The second warning is the amount of time that elapsed since the end of the preceding correction (now marked as 1st red leg down). That drop took 19 bars (27 days) to unfold, to compare the current blue zigzag up is already 23 bars (31 days) long. This looks like an intermediate consolidation ahead of another leg down (marked as red 2).<\/p>\n

So, be careful with your longs and adjust your trading plan if necessary as the price could fall out of the range. The last leg up of a blue zigzag could touch the upside of the current $1557-$1458 range, but then the other leg down could start and do it very fast to catch the bulls in euphoria. Watch this move up to see how much it will undershoot below the upside of the range as it will show you how much it will overshoot the downside of the range then. Simple math is working here as we assume that in classics the leg 2 will be equal to leg 1 down. The second leg's red zigzag down looks perfect and symmetric as I put it this way to map the move, but it could take different shapes, of course.<\/p>\n

Talking about classic chart structure, which quite often has been built on the gold graphs, here is another one on the time scale. I measured the date range of the upside move (blue range) preceding current consolidation; it is 89 bars long (125 days). Then I added it to the start of the consolidation to find where it could finish; the end date falls on the 7th of January, 2020. It contradicts with the ending point of the perfect second red zigzag down, which falls on the Christmas day. Let's see which approach will play out at the end.<\/p>\n

Chart 2. Silver Daily: Undershot=>Overshot<\/h2>\n

\"gold<\/a>
\nChart courtesy of tradingview.com<\/em><\/small><\/p>\n

This was the silver, which showed the path for both metals in September as it didn't reach the target of $21.13, although it advanced quite deep and fast to the upside. And this uncompleted mission to hit the target canceled the reversal model<\/a> for the gold.<\/p>\n

In this post, we are looking deep into the anatomy of the current consolidation for both metals, which is going to be extended. After it\u2019s complete, we will adjust the price targets for both metals.<\/p>\n

Silver always has a sharper chart structure than the gold has as central banks prefer the latter and it is a double-edged sword. Sometimes it is confusing, and only gold is a clear compass then. This time, on the contrary, it clearly shows that this consolidation gets more complicated as the sharp drop (red 1) was changed with a sideways move (blue zigzag). The same flags are here - not triggered confirmation above $18.74 and the delayed move up.<\/p>\n

It is clear that the most probable current move up will undershoot the upside of the range at $19.63. This assumption is based on the length of the first leg up. It means that the second leg down could overshoot deep under the bottom of the range at $16.88. It could hit below $16. It shouldn't surprise silver traders as it is a normal behavior of it. <\/p>\n

Let's check the date ranges of silver as we did for gold before. The move-up took 77 bars (107 days) to unfold, and it is a way shorter period, compared to gold, but we should bear in mind that the silver was catching up with already successful gold. I added this period to the start of consolidation; the ending point falls on the 20th of December, 2019. This time the perfect zigzag and the date range approach hit the same date.<\/p>\n

It looks like \"whales\" prepare the precious metals for a Santa Claus Rally as gold's 2nd drop and silver's both measurements fall around the Christmas day. <\/p>\n

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Which ending date of this extended consolidation do you see?<\/strong><\/p>