{"id":51294,"date":"2019-12-27T08:00:53","date_gmt":"2019-12-27T13:00:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=51294"},"modified":"2019-12-26T16:56:10","modified_gmt":"2019-12-26T21:56:10","slug":"a-market-festivus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2019\/12\/a-market-festivus\/","title":{"rendered":"A Market Festivus"},"content":{"rendered":"

They say that Festivus is the\u00a0\u201canti-Christmas\u201d<\/em>, but in this case we are going to call it the anti-Christmas Eve as the markets\u00a0close out 2018\u2019s Christmas Eve massacre<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cMany Christmases ago I went to buy a doll for my son. I reached for the last one they had, but so did another man. As I rained blows upon him I realized there had to be another way!\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

This year markets are going another way.<\/p>\n

\"Market<\/a><\/p>\n

We have been managing a potential Christmas Eve close-out sale in the stock market since SPX hopped the Bull Turnstile, negating topping potential and confirming bullish ascending triangles (not shown below as they appeared on daily charts) and its own major trends by breaking upward. Here is the most recent chart (from\u00a0NFTRH 582<\/strong>) used to illustrate the situation.<\/p>\n

Please consider this weekly chart for reference only. We had a lot of words in #582 about what I\u00a0think<\/em>\u00a0is in play, but ultimately this public post is simply illustrating what\u00a0is currently<\/em>\u00a0in play. And that is an upside extension (with associated sentiment readings to be updated this weekend in\u00a0NFTRH 583<\/strong>) that would be roughly equal and opposite to the 2018 downside blow off (note: though the chart allows for higher levels, SPX has already qualified for a price and sentiment close-out, in the general spirit of the season). The blue box is the same height as the yellow shaded area. It\u2019s more art than TA, but there you have it\u2026 some frame of reference.<\/p>\n

\"market<\/a><\/p>\n

While we will have a fuller sentiment review in\u00a0NFTRH 583<\/strong>\u00a0this weekend, one look at\u00a0Sentimentrader<\/a>\u2018s Smart\/Dumb money indicator positioning confirms what we have been expecting, which is new price highs amid a new (albeit secondary to the 2018 sentiment frenzy) sentiment blow off. This is an ugly picture to a contrarian investor.<\/p>\n

\"smart<\/a><\/p>\n

This has been our leading (bull) indicator for all of 2019. The SOX\/NDX ratio is the lead end of the\u00a0SOX>NDX>SPX<\/strong>\u00a0leadership chain we\u2019ve watched and respected all year long in managing the bull trends (Semiconductor Leadership Has 1 Year Birthday<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 Nov. 2019).<\/p>\n

It is either a bullish base or an ending situation at key resistance. One thing I do know is that we have been bullish on the Semis for most of 2019 amid the sound of crickets. Today I am reading all over the financial media about how bullish the Semi sector is (and sentiment does include reputable research, so I am not trying to be a contrarian wise guy: Ref.\u00a0The Tide Has Turned<\/a>\u00a0at SEMI).<\/p>\n

\"sox<\/a><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, animal spirits are in play and the process will terminate when it terminates. But I think the lower volume \u2018Santa\u2019 season (+\/-) can generally fit the bill. One thing to keep an eye on is the commodity and resources areas, which we\u2019ve been riding for a good bottom and bounce (note the word\u00a0\u201cbounce\u201d<\/em>, which does not mean bull market). Below is the chart (now updated with further bullish price action) that caught our attention last weekend.<\/p>\n

We have had the TSX-V on watch all along and more intently since it bottomed with an RSI divergence in November. In climbing above the SMA 50 and forming a bounce pattern we then established targets, the first of which appears to be locked and loaded. Talk about tax loss season. This index of beaten down resources (oil & gas exploration, base & precious metals exploration, etc.) is making a classic seasonal picture.<\/p>\n

\"market<\/a><\/p>\n

There is also the global picture to consider. The World (ex-US) has a measurement of its own that it will perhaps seek out. Here\u2019s the weekly chart of ACWX.<\/p>\n

\"acwx\"<\/a><\/p>\n

And finally, what kind of Festivus would it be without taking a look at the \u2018anti\u2019 market, AKA the counter-cyclical sector, which has been right there in party mode this season along with most everything else?<\/p>\n

The daily chart of HUI (at the moment of posting breaking upward yet again today under cover of the Santa seasonal) never did fulfill worst-case yet normal correction expectations as the TA instructed us to give it the benefit of the doubt last week when it held the 220 area support (per an\u00a0NFTRH<\/a>\u00a0update previous to that).<\/p>\n

If\/as HUI ticks a new high for the bull cycle it will confirm the up-trending moving averages and set a course for the upside targets we\u2019ve had in play since June.<\/p>\n

What I am liking best about this situation is that whether or not the true sector fundamentals play ball (they currently are not in very good shape as they continue to consolidate) historical HUI has shown the ability to travel to great heights\u00a0against<\/em>\u00a0its fundamentals after a launch\u00a0with<\/em>\u00a0its fundamentals. I like that in combination with the fact that our upside targets are pretty conservative and not even calling for a major new bull market, and yet there is a lot of potential upside ahead.<\/p>\n

\"hui\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Still, the miners are rallying hard during the holiday seasonal party. There\u2019s Wayne, there\u2019s Garth and there\u2019s you, me and Frank Costanzsa haranguing all the while.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s try to figure out what is real and what is an illusion as the machines run the holiday muted show. Last year the market crash was not real. This year the market rally?? For most of this year I\u2019ve been able to balance gold and silver mining positions against broad stock market positions as they were contrary or\u00a0anti<\/em>\u00a0each other in a year-long Festivus of sound portfolio management.<\/p>\n

Now however, at the doorway to 2020, it gets more interesting\u2026 and challenging.<\/p>\n

Check back to see my next post!<\/p>\n

Best,
\nGary Tanashian<\/a>
\nnftrh.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Subscribe to\u00a0NFTRH Pre<\/strong>mium<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0(monthly at USD $33.50<\/a>\u00a0or a 14% discounted\u00a0yearly at USD $345.00<\/a>) for an in-depth\u00a0weekly market report<\/strong>,\u00a0interim market updates<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0NFTRH+ chart and trade setup ideas<\/strong>, all archived\/posted at the site and delivered to your inbox.<\/p>\n

You can also keep up to date with plenty of actionable public content at\u00a0NFTRH.com<\/a>\u00a0by using the\u00a0email form on the right sidebar<\/strong>\u00a0and get even\u00a0more<\/em>\u00a0by\u00a0joining our<\/a>\u00a0free eLetter<\/strong>. Or follow via Twitter\u00a0@BiiwiiNFTRH<\/a>,\u00a0StockTwits<\/a>\u00a0or\u00a0RSS<\/a>. Also, check out the quality market writers at\u00a0nftrh.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

They say that Festivus is the\u00a0\u201canti-Christmas\u201d, but in this case we are going to call it the anti-Christmas Eve as the markets\u00a0close out 2018\u2019s Christmas Eve massacre. \u201cMany Christmases ago I went to buy a doll for my son. I reached for the last one they had, but so did another man. As I rained […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":31,"featured_media":51297,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6920],"tags":[15298,4273,6336,3157,9526,8667,1967,102],"class_list":["post-51294","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ino-com-contributors","tag-festivus","tag-gary-tanashian","tag-hui-gold-bugs-index","tag-market-analysis","tag-notes-from-the-rabbit-hole-nftrh","tag-semiconductor-sector","tag-sp-500-index","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"\nA Market Festivus - INO.com Trader's Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Let\u2019s try to figure out what is real and what is an illusion. Last year the market crash was not real. 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