{"id":51399,"date":"2020-01-11T08:00:09","date_gmt":"2020-01-11T13:00:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=51399"},"modified":"2020-01-10T16:39:15","modified_gmt":"2020-01-10T21:39:15","slug":"the-crazy-train-to-bull-eternity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2020\/01\/the-crazy-train-to-bull-eternity\/","title":{"rendered":"The Crazy Train To Bull Eternity"},"content":{"rendered":"

Once again I have to disclaim that at the moment (and for quite some time now) I hold not one single short position, in anything. I am only long US and global stocks. But also managing cash and portfolio balance as usual while feeling as though I\u2019m playing a game of Musical Chairs while the music still plays (nothing nearly as good as Keith\u2019s style, which has always resonated with me beyond most others).<\/p>\n

I have to disclaim the bull positioning because book talkers tend to talk about their book. My book is only long insofar as I have equity positions because in a manic up phase I have little interest in eroding the situation with short hedging. Besides, gold stocks are doing that balancing job right now and that balancing act has been working well since June.<\/p>\n

Anyway, here is a tweet from a well-followed commentator that is framed so logically and paints the 2008 crash as merely a blip that you or I could do standing on our heads.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"bull\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\n

Equities\u2026 just stay in and prosper! No problem in real-time because the US stock market always<\/em>\u00a0comes back\u2026\u00a0ALWAYS<\/em>. This is the kind of stuff that appears near tops; like stuff that uses ultra long-term yearly charts in log scale to smooth out the problems.<\/p>\n

So the next time this happens, try to forget that it was caused by epic policy distortions within the system the likes of which have been amped up exponentially since and just remember it\u2019s actually a smooth ride assuming the next thing is like the last thing and you live long enough to reap the benefits.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

<\/div>\n
\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

\"spx<\/a><\/p>\n

Allow the\u00a0Macro Tourist<\/a>\u00a0to expand upon the theme\u2026<\/p>\n

\"bull\"<\/a><\/p>\n

He notes that CNBC anchor Becky Quick got into something of a competition with her wealth manager guest, who is only 80% exposed to stocks. Becky\u2019s all-in at 100%!<\/p>\n

Greedy or Fearful?<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

However, I would like to point out that Becky was not bragging about this allocation at any time during the past decade. No, she has chosen December 2019 with the S&P 500 up more than 360% since the bottom to let us know about her over-allocation.<\/p>\n

Herein lies my point. Just like this summer when bonds had already ripped 13 handles higher, market participants usually express this sort of arrogance at points when they feel confident. Extremely confident.<\/p>\n

What do I take from this? It\u2019s not the time to be reaching for exposure. I don\u2019t need to know anything else except that CNBC anchors are competing with their guests about the size of their stock allocations.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

And of course yesterday\u00a0there was the president<\/a>\u00a0with his dangerous \u2018409 K\u2019 tweet taunting casino patrons as if merely performing in line with the S&P 500 (as opposed to near doubling its performance) was a failure.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

This is just one of several charts, graphs and indicators we use each week in\u00a0NFTRH<\/a> to gauge the bull sentiment situation (and folks, this is<\/em> a sentiment event). NAAIM had pulled back their enthusiasm into year-end and using this and other sentiment indicators that had twitched a bit bearish, we had a short-term bullish signal for the Santa seasonal, which we\u2019ve allowed to extend into Q1 2020 (aided most recently by the US-Iran war drums).<\/p>\n

\"bull\"<\/a><\/p>\n

And now? It\u2019s as expected. Manic upside with investment managers all aboard, newsletters all aboard, CNBC anchors all aboard and all those discount brokerages that opened during the real sentiment blow off in January 2018\u2026 all aboard. All aboard the Crazy Train\u2026<\/p>\n

I\u2019ve listened to preachers, I\u2019ve listened to fools
\nI\u2019ve watched all the dropouts who make their own rules
\nOne person conditioned to rule and control
\nThe media sells it and you live the role \u2013Ozzy<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

These sentiment knee-jerks have refreshed the bull market on very short-term bases. It\u2019s dangerous but as yet ongoing\u2026 and barreling down the tracks.<\/p>\n

Check back to see my next post!<\/p>\n

Best,
\nGary Tanashian<\/a><\/p>\n

Subscribe to\u00a0NFTRH Pre<\/strong>mium<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0(monthly at USD $35.00<\/a> or a discounted yearly at USD $365.00<\/a>) for an in-depth\u00a0weekly market report<\/strong>,\u00a0interim market updates<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0NFTRH+ chart and trade setup ideas<\/strong>, all archived\/posted at the site and delivered to your inbox.<\/p>\n

You can also keep up to date with plenty of actionable public content at\u00a0NFTRH.com<\/a> by\u00a0joining our<\/a>\u00a0free eLetter<\/strong>. Or follow via Twitter\u00a0@BiiwiiNFTRH<\/a>,\u00a0StockTwits<\/a>\u00a0or\u00a0RSS<\/a>. Also, check out the quality market writers at\u00a0nftrh.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Once again I have to disclaim that at the moment (and for quite some time now) I hold not one single short position, in anything. I am only long US and global stocks. But also managing cash and portfolio balance as usual while feeling as though I\u2019m playing a game of Musical Chairs while the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":31,"featured_media":51405,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6920],"tags":[2262,4273,9526,14427],"class_list":["post-51399","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ino-com-contributors","tag-bull-market","tag-gary-tanashian","tag-notes-from-the-rabbit-hole-nftrh","tag-sp-500-spx"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Crazy Train To Bull Eternity - INO.com Trader's Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"I have to disclaim the bull positioning because I do not hold one single short position in anything. 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