{"id":5149,"date":"2011-01-05T07:00:46","date_gmt":"2011-01-05T11:00:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/club.ino.com\/trading\/?p=5149"},"modified":"2011-01-06T15:42:17","modified_gmt":"2011-01-06T19:42:17","slug":"what-is-this-confidence-thing-all-about","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2011\/01\/what-is-this-confidence-thing-all-about\/","title":{"rendered":"What is this confidence thing all about?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"I was recently talking to James Mound, Founder of Futures Press Inc. We started talking about current market conditions and why he thought a majority of the \"predictions\" he was hearing were pretty far off base. I must admit he had some good points and I asked if he would do a guest post to address some of the issues. Take a look and be sure to comment with your thoughts. If you like what you see be sure to visit James here.<\/a><\/p>\n

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I apologize in advance if this particular report offends any analysts or traders as it is not my intention. I am here to tell it like it is, and right now many of the pundits have it DEAD WRONG about the future of the stock market, the dollar, bonds and commodity prices.<\/p>\n

The world\u2019s financial industries \u2013 currencies, interest rates, stocks, real estate and commodities \u2013 are all being driven by one critical issue.\u00a0 That issue is confidence.\u00a0 If you can predict the future track of investor confidence you might be able to forecast these critical industries and that is what I am going to do right now.<\/p>\n

First, what is this confidence thing all about?<\/p>\n

ECONOMIC CONDITION > CONFIDENCE LEVEL > RISK PROFILE > INVESTMENT GOAL > PROSPERITY > STABLE CONFIDENCE >RISK TAKING > OPTIMIZE RETURNS > RECESSION\/DEPRESSION > CONFIDENCE COLLAPSE > FEAR\/PANIC > ASSET PRESERVATION > RECOVERY > UNSTABLE CONFIDENCE > SELECTIVE RISK TAKING > SEEK INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY<\/p>\n

During periods of growth and prosperity confidence is not the critical component to the financial world.\u00a0 When things are good, so to speak, investors focus on taking risk because the psychology is that it is not whether you will make money but rather how to make the best return possible.\u00a0 When things are in a freefall, like the markets experienced in 2008, investors are in panic mode and confidence is shattered.\u00a0 This condition removes confidence and the panic psychology seeks out safe havens and brings trepidation to opportunistic investment decisions.\u00a0 When things are in a period of recovery, which many believe we are currently in, psychology shifts to one of seeking support for an investment decision.<\/p>\n

Investors are coming out of the woodwork to seek out investment opportunities with the potential for solid returns.\u00a0 However, that trepidation from the freefall period is not entirely out of sight or mind.\u00a0 Therefore, during periods of recovery confidence becomes the driver behind many of the financial trends that take place.\u00a0 Allow me to illustrate this point.<\/p>\n

In May 2010 the \u2018Flash Crash\u2019 brought the Dow crumbling nearly 1000 points in just a matter of minutes, landing a devastating blow to investor confidence in the stock market.\u00a0 During this confidence collapse where did investors flock?\u00a0 To the Japanese Yen \u2013 so much so that the yen had one of the largest 1 day rallies in history!<\/p>\n

During the Greece economic panic money flooded out of the Euro currency as confidence in the Euro as a unified currency structure was disappearing by the second.\u00a0 Where did investors run?\u00a0 To the U.S. dollar and the Japanese Yen where confidence in the stability of those respective currencies remained significantly stronger than that of the Euro.<\/p>\n

The list goes on, but the story remains the same \u2013 confidence is key during economic recovery and that confidence can turn on a dime when fundamental events occur.<\/p>\n

In 2010 the world experienced the beginning of a major currency shift.\u00a0 Currency trends tend to come over long time periods \u2013 recent U.S. dollar trends have been between 3-7 years.\u00a0 These longer term trends tend to have volatile short term price action followed by periods of congestion or mild trending channels.\u00a0 However during a global currency shift it is likely to become a bit more of a tug-o-war as nearly every currency experiences its own internal supply\/demand shift while being affected by multiple other currency shifts at the same time.\u00a0 In the end this tug-o-war is often won by currencies supported by the strongest underlying confidence amongst investors.\u00a0 In Europe the confidence continues to evaporate based on continuing economic uncertainty amongst its member countries.\u00a0 In Japan the yen has experienced an epic rally, one that may continue but will likely see diminishing global investment as the perceived value of the yen is reduced because of its strong gains.\u00a0 The U.S. dollar, however, is a different story altogether.<\/p>\n

The U.S. dollar will continue to be a perceived safe-haven currency play because of one main underlying factor \u2013 confidence created by monetary policy leadership.\u00a0 The fear of investors throughout the world does not necessarily stem from poor monetary policy, but rather an insufficient or complete lack of initiatives.\u00a0 Inaction stimulates fear but action creates confidence.\u00a0 The U.S. is leading the action to stimulate a recovery, regardless of whether or not that action is ideal.\u00a0 This means that during periods of panic or declining confidence investors will probably flock to dollars.\u00a0 The dollar will lead the way to 4 critical events affecting commodities, stocks, bonds and inflation.<\/p>\n

Best wishes for a happy, healthy and wealthy 2011,
\nJames Mound<\/p>\n

Futures Press Inc.<\/p>\n

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This and more is included in the 2011 MEGA Commodity Forecast, currently available to INO readers prior to its January 6th release for 50% off.\u00a0 James is also including a premium 2011 Commodity Wall Calendar from Futures Press as a special free bonus ($24.95 value).<\/p>\n

Visit here to take advantage of this promotion<\/a> and get immediate access to Jame's critical report of the 4 biggest financial forecasts for 2011 along with specific price predictions for: Energies, Metals, Grains, Softs, Meats, Stock Indices, Bonds and Currencies.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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