{"id":52389,"date":"2020-06-27T08:00:18","date_gmt":"2020-06-27T12:00:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=52389"},"modified":"2020-06-26T16:45:30","modified_gmt":"2020-06-26T20:45:30","slug":"are-we-ready-for-a-second-wave-financial-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2020\/06\/are-we-ready-for-a-second-wave-financial-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"Are We Ready For A Second Wave?"},"content":{"rendered":"

As we know well by now, the financial markets have recovered nicely from the initial wave of the coronavirus, at least until recently. After plunging by a third from its February 19 all-time high through its March 23 bottom, the S&P 500<\/a> has rebounded sharply, although it still remains about 10% below its record high. NASDAQ<\/a>, however, has won back all of what it lost and now is solidly in the green for the year. Bond yields, meanwhile, have largely settled into a relatively narrow range, all of which signals that investors are fairly positive about the future.<\/p>\n

Certainly, the most recent economic news has borne out that optimism. Retail sales jumped a record 17.7% in May after plunging 14.7% in April, the first increase in fourth months. Moreover, May sales in dollars were only 7.7% below where they were in February before the worst effects of the virus hit. In other words, after an extraordinary dip, spending is already close to where it was as more stores and restaurants reopen. <\/p>\n

Elsewhere, the Conference Board\u2019s index rose a better than expected 2.8% in May after falling 6.1% in April. Sales of newly-built homes jumped 16.6% while the National Association of Home Builders\u2019 confidence index surged 21 points in June to 58. Sales of existing-home sales, by far the largest category, dropped nearly 10% in May, but that \u201creflected contract signings in March and April, during the strictest times of the pandemic lockdown,\u201d the National Association of Realtors said, adding that \u201chome sales will surely rise in the upcoming months with the economy reopening, and could even surpass one-year-ago figures in the second half of the year.\u201d<\/p>\n

While all of that is undoubtedly good news, is it sustainable? Right now, two main questions are facing the economy and the financial markets: How bad will a dreaded \u201csecond wave\u201d of the virus be on both the nation\u2019s health and economy and what happens now that the U.S. government\u2019s stimulus programs have started to run out?<\/p>\n

If the headlines can be believed, new coronavirus cases are rising, leading some state and local officials to reinstitute lockdown measures just as other states are relaxing theirs. At the same time, the \u201chelicopter money\u201d the federal government rained on just about all U.S. citizens has largely been delivered and spent, the $600 a week unemployment bonuses are nearing their expiration, and the Payroll Protection Program loans to incent small businesses to keep their employees on the payroll, while still available, have reached the forgiveness stage for many borrowers. <\/p>\n

What happens next?<\/p>\n

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If there\u2019s anything we learned from Round One is that we can\u2019t shut down the vast majority of the U.S. economy for any length of time without it creating even bigger problems. While it\u2019s certainly reassuring that the Treasury and the Federal Reserve can throw massive amounts of money to tide individuals and consumers over for a few months, basically, it can\u2019t do so forever, whatever Modern Monetary Theory advocates believe. Although that doesn\u2019t mean they won\u2019t try.<\/p>\n

Already President Trump and others are talking about a second round of stimulus checks, perhaps bigger and more widely dispersed than the first one. More sectors of the economy that have been neglected so far appear to be in line for their own bailouts. For example, earlier this week, a bipartisan group of 100 Congressional representatives called on Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Fed Chair Jerome Powell to create a lending facility for landlords of large commercial properties who have seen lots of their tenants stop paying rent. <\/p>\n

At the same time, the Fed has increased its purchases of corporate bonds \u2013 many of them now junk-rated \u2013 so a bailout of institutional property owners seems entirely fair. As Powell has said repeatedly, the Fed will do \u201cwhatever it takes\u201d to keep the economy afloat, a process he says will take years. Indeed, if the 2008 financial crisis is any guide, it will more realistically take decades. Even with the Fed\u2019s balance sheet now at $7.1 trillion and counting and the federal deficit at $26 trillion, more aid can be expected. <\/p>\n

But there\u2019s also a huge amount of private money looking for a home. <\/p>\n

The Wall Street Journal reported this week on the \u201cCoronavirus Savings Glut<\/a>,\u201d predicting \u201ca boom in savings and depressed interest rates,\u201d the result of \u201ccrushed\u201d consumer spending. <\/p>\n

With the Fed having largely cornered the U.S. Treasury and residential mortgage-backed securities markets and now also one of the biggest players in the corporate bond market \u2013 and possibly the commercial MBS market next \u2013 where can investors turn for a decent return on their money in the financial markets?<\/p>\n

It\u2019s TINA \u2013 There is No Alternative \u2013 to stocks, that is. While another stock market correction resulting from a possible second coronavirus wave can\u2019t be ruled out, the long-term case for buying stocks is just as compelling now as it ever was, if only because there\u2019s no place else to go even more so if the Fed starts buying equities, which can\u2019t be ruled out.<\/p>\n

Visit back to read my next article! <\/p>\n

George Yacik<\/a>
\nINO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates<\/p>\n

Disclosure: This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As we know well by now, the financial markets have recovered nicely from the initial wave of the coronavirus, at least until recently. After plunging by a third from its February 19 all-time high through its March 23 bottom, the S&P 500 has rebounded sharply, although it still remains about 10% below its record high. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":52390,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6920],"tags":[15916,15915,511,154,6938,30529,5050],"class_list":["post-52389","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ino-com-contributors","tag-coronavirus","tag-covid-19","tag-federal-reserve","tag-financial-markets","tag-george-yacik","tag-tina-there-is-no-alternative","tag-u-s-economy"],"yoast_head":"\nAre We Ready For A Second Wave? - INO.com Trader's Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"As we know well by now, the financial markets have recovered nicely from the initial wave of the coronavirus, at least until recently.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2020\/06\/are-we-ready-for-a-second-wave-financial-markets\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Are We Ready For A Second Wave? 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