{"id":52777,"date":"2020-08-21T14:24:32","date_gmt":"2020-08-21T18:24:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=52777"},"modified":"2020-08-21T14:24:32","modified_gmt":"2020-08-21T18:24:32","slug":"fed-rules-out-yield-curve-control-for-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2020\/08\/fed-rules-out-yield-curve-control-for-now\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed Rules Out Yield Curve Control (For Now)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>That we are even having this conversation is proof that we are and have been in\u2026<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/aliceinwonderland2.png?ssl=1\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-35587 jetpack-lazy-image jetpack-lazy-image--handled\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/aliceinwonderland2.png?resize=572%2C289&amp;ssl=1\" alt=\"alice in wonderland\" width=\"572\" height=\"289\" data-attachment-id=\"35587\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/nftrh.com\/2015\/12\/06\/nftrh-372-out-now\/aliceinwonderland2\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/aliceinwonderland2.png?fit=572%2C289&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"572,289\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"aliceinwonderland2\" data-image-description=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/aliceinwonderland2.png?fit=572%2C289&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/aliceinwonderland2.png?fit=572%2C289&amp;ssl=1\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" data-lazy-loaded=\"1\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2026<strong>Wonderland<\/strong>\u00a0for years now.<\/p>\n<p>Since at least 2001, actually. Back then Alan the Wizard Greenspan (mixing classic fairy stories, I know) began pulling levers that could never be un-pulled. There were no breadcrumbs with which to find our way back. Off the charts is off the charts. Exponential is exponential. And that\u2019s when funny munny out of thin air entered the realm of normalcy;\u00a0<em>new<\/em>\u00a0normalcy where the financial system is concerned.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/ozcurtain.png?ssl=1\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-69084 jetpack-lazy-image jetpack-lazy-image--handled\" src=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/ozcurtain.png?resize=661%2C534&amp;ssl=1\" sizes=\"(max-width: 661px) 100vw, 661px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/ozcurtain.png?w=661&amp;ssl=1 661w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/ozcurtain.png?resize=150%2C121&amp;ssl=1 150w\" alt=\"\" width=\"661\" height=\"534\" data-attachment-id=\"69084\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/nftrh.com\/2019\/02\/14\/manage-your-psych-profile\/ozcurtain\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/ozcurtain.png?fit=661%2C534&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"661,534\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"ozcurtain\" data-image-description=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/ozcurtain.png?fit=661%2C534&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/ozcurtain.png?fit=661%2C534&amp;ssl=1\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" data-lazy-loaded=\"1\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>I assume that the\u00a0<em>\u2018tool\u2019<\/em>\u00a0known as yield curve control (per this\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/european-stocks-slump-after-minutes-show-feds-cautious-stance-11597909900?mod=home-page\">article<\/a>) is part of\u00a0<del>MMT (Modern Monetary Theory)<\/del>\u00a0TMM (Total Market Manipulation) that the eggheads promote with not an ounce of historical monetary grounding, caution or even human-like soul. They are monetary Humanoids, AKA bureaucrats, AKA economic Ph.Ds with more statistical and theoretical knowledge than common sense. They released the FOMC minutes and policy micro-managers offer their interpretations.<!--more--><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>\u201cThe lack of a more forward-leaning stance on the review conclusions \u2014along with a sober view on the second half outlook and a firm rejection of yield curve control in current circumstances \u2014 is likely responsible for the immediate risk-off \/ financial conditions tighter response in financial markets,\u201d said Krishna Guha, vice chairman of Evercore ISI. Guha said he was \u201crelaxed and confident\u201d the central bank will embrace a soft average inflation principle at its September meeting.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I know that they\u2019ve employed all sorts of innovative tactics to manipulate the financial system to their will. But still, something about yield curve control is particularly onerous.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/outerlimits.png?ssl=1\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-86260 jetpack-lazy-image jetpack-lazy-image--handled\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/outerlimits.png?resize=275%2C202&amp;ssl=1\" sizes=\"(max-width: 275px) 100vw, 275px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/outerlimits.png?w=275&amp;ssl=1 275w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/outerlimits.png?resize=150%2C110&amp;ssl=1 150w\" alt=\"\" width=\"275\" height=\"202\" data-attachment-id=\"86260\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/nftrh.com\/2020\/05\/07\/a-companion-to-the-continuum\/outerlimits-5\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/outerlimits.png?fit=275%2C202&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"275,202\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"outerlimits\" data-image-description=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/outerlimits.png?fit=275%2C202&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/outerlimits.png?fit=275%2C202&amp;ssl=1\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" data-lazy-loaded=\"1\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em>\u201cThere is nothing wrong with your\u00a0<del>television set<\/del>\u00a0[rational mind]. Do not attempt to adjust\u00a0<del>the picture<\/del>\u00a0[your point of view]. We are controlling\u00a0<del>transmission<\/del>\u00a0[the financial markets]. If we wish to make it\u00a0<del>louder<\/del>\u00a0[more expensive], we will bring up the [funny munny] volume. If we wish to make it\u00a0<del>softer<\/del>\u00a0[cheaper], we will t<del>une it to a whisper<\/del>\u00a0[pretend to be hawkish]. We will control the\u00a0<del>horizontal<\/del>\u00a0[rates of interest]. We will control the\u00a0<del>vertical<\/del>\u00a0[price signals]. We can\u00a0<del>roll the image<\/del>\u00a0[roil the markets], make\u00a0<del>it flutter<\/del>\u00a0[you shudder]. We can change the focus\u00a0<del>to a soft blur<\/del>\u00a0[away from that man behind the curtain], or\u00a0<del>sharpen it to crystal clarity<\/del>\u00a0[command your rapt attention to our manipulative goals]. For the next\u00a0<del>hour<\/del>\u00a0[undetermined time period until the macro souffle wheezes, drops and flattens], sit quietly and we will control all that you see and hear. We repeat: There is nothing wrong with your\u00a0<del>television set<\/del>\u00a0[rational mind]. You\u00a0<del>are about to participate<\/del>\u00a0[have been participating] in a great adventure. You\u00a0<del>are about to experience<\/del>\u00a0[have been experiencing for nearly 2 decades now] the awe and mystery which reaches from the\u00a0<del>inner mind<\/del>\u00a0[dark corners of a long-since failed experiment that does not yet know it has failed] to\u2026 The Outer Limits.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s a chart I made months ago. I have not touched it today. It\u2019s as it was marked up then, complete with the August 2019 projected flattening low. Since then\u2026 the steepening has been in play.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/yieldcurve-1.png?ssl=1\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-91272 jetpack-lazy-image jetpack-lazy-image--handled\" src=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/yieldcurve-1.png?resize=840%2C560&amp;ssl=1\" sizes=\"(max-width: 840px) 100vw, 840px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/yieldcurve-1.png?w=1200&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/yieldcurve-1.png?resize=700%2C467&amp;ssl=1 700w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/yieldcurve-1.png?resize=1024%2C683&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/yieldcurve-1.png?resize=150%2C100&amp;ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/yieldcurve-1.png?resize=768%2C512&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/yieldcurve-1.png?resize=840%2C560&amp;ssl=1 840w\" alt=\"yield curve\" width=\"840\" height=\"560\" data-attachment-id=\"91272\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/nftrh.com\/2020\/08\/20\/fed-rules-out-yield-curve-control-for-now\/yieldcurve-16\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/yieldcurve-1.png?fit=1200%2C800&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1200,800\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"yieldcurve\" data-image-description=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/yieldcurve-1.png?fit=700%2C467&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/nftrh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/yieldcurve-1.png?fit=840%2C560&amp;ssl=1\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" data-lazy-loaded=\"1\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Operation Twist \u2013 the ultimate macro manipulation* \u2013 was the crowning achievement of central bankers and their willful control of the financial markets. Again, I tell you that I am not a lunatic blogger with a <a href=\"https:\/\/nftrh.com\/nftrh-premium\/\">financial market service that has a funny name<\/a> (well, maybe); but instead, I am someone who remembers clearly the Bernanke Fed\u2019s stated objective with Op\/Twist\u2026 to\u00a0<em>\u201cSANITIZE\u201d<\/em>\u00a0inflation. Their word, not mine.<\/p>\n<p>That was a masterstroke of yield curve control and the resulting \u2013 and cooked up \u2013 monetary policy instigated boom lasted 8 years. I am not sure what kind of control they\u2019d cook up today. Would they want to keep it steepening in an inflationary signal (a steepening curve can signal either rising inflation or deflation) or tamp down the fledgling steepener?<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019d guess they are fine with steepening for now because in its early stages a steepener may not be lethal (and could be helpful to the Banks and Financial sector, among other reflation targets). People improperly get wigged out by inversion after all, and the tick to inversion was only a year ago. It is the steepener that will eventually become the problem throughout of control inflation or destructive deflation. But for now, they appear content (if it ain\u2019t broke, don\u2019t fix it).<\/p>\n<p>Trump claims credit for his post-2016 portion of the economy but putting his massive and narcissistic ego aside for a moment, it was all Bernanke and it was created by the yield curve flattening. It is no coincidence whatsoever that the Trump economy has begun (actually\u00a0<em>had<\/em>\u00a0begun prior to COVID-19) to stall with the new steepener. The boom was created in large part by policy, irrespective of Obama this or Trump that.<\/p>\n<p><em>* With respect to Operation Twist, the Fed stated that it would \u201csanitize\u201d macro inflation signals by simply buying long-term Treasury bonds and selling short-term Treasury bonds, effectively forcing the yield curve into submission (flattening).<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Check back to see my next post!<\/p>\n<p>Best,<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/author\/gary-tanashian\/\">Gary Tanashian<\/a><br \/>\nnftrh.com<\/p>\n<p>Subscribe to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/nftrh.com\/nftrh-premium\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong>NFTRH Pre<\/strong><strong>mium<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0(<a href=\"https:\/\/www.paypal.com\/cgi-bin\/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&amp;hosted_button_id=G5KFQR5HPQLXQ\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">monthly at USD $35.00<\/a> or a discounted <a href=\"https:\/\/www.paypal.com\/cgi-bin\/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&amp;hosted_button_id=F8ANRRZVBDWSU\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">yearly at USD $365.00<\/a>) for an in-depth\u00a0<strong>weekly market report<\/strong>,\u00a0<strong>interim market updates<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0<strong>NFTRH+ chart and trade setup ideas<\/strong>, all archived\/posted at the site and delivered to your inbox. <span style=\"color: #99cc00;\"><em><strong>[Note: the subscription rate to the value-priced NFTRH service will increase near summer\u2019s end, so if you are considering a subscription don\u2019t wait to lock in the current rate]<\/strong><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p>You can also keep up to date with plenty of actionable public content at\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/nftrh.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NFTRH.com<\/a>\u00a0by using the\u00a0<strong>email form on the right sidebar<\/strong>\u00a0and get even\u00a0<em>more<\/em>\u00a0by\u00a0<strong><a href=\"http:\/\/eepurl.com\/dtg5gn\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">joining our<\/a>\u00a0free eLetter<\/strong>. Or follow via Twitter\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/follow?original_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fnftrh.com%2Ftestimonials%2F%C2%AEion=follow_link&amp;screen_name=BiiwiiNFTRH&amp;tw_p=followbutton\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">@BiiwiiNFTRH<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/stocktwits.com\/nftrh\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">StockTwits<\/a>\u00a0or\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/nftrh\/YDgV\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">RSS<\/a>. Also, check out the quality market writers at\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/nftrh.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">nftrh.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on the_content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>That we are even having this conversation is proof that we are and have been in\u2026 \u2026Wonderland\u00a0for years now. Since at least 2001, actually. Back then Alan the Wizard Greenspan (mixing classic fairy stories, I know) began pulling levers that could never be un-pulled. There were no breadcrumbs with which to find our way back. [&hellip;]<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":31,"featured_media":52780,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6920],"tags":[6824,511,4273,9526,12444],"class_list":["post-52777","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ino-com-contributors","tag-federal-open-market-committee-fomc","tag-federal-reserve","tag-gary-tanashian","tag-notes-from-the-rabbit-hole-nftrh","tag-yield-curve"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.4 (Yoast SEO v23.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Fed Rules Out Yield Curve Control (For Now) - INO.com Trader&#039;s Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Fed has employed innovative tactics to manipulate the financial system. 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