{"id":53165,"date":"2020-11-02T10:56:04","date_gmt":"2020-11-02T15:56:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=53165"},"modified":"2020-11-02T10:56:04","modified_gmt":"2020-11-02T15:56:04","slug":"u-s-crude-production-fell-in-august","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2020\/11\/u-s-crude-production-fell-in-august\/","title":{"rendered":"U.S. Crude Production Fell In August"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Energy Information Administration reported that August crude oil production fell by 401,000 barrels per day, averaging 10.579 mmbd. This follows a 538,000 b\/d rise in July and a 2 million barrel per day collapse in May. The August 914 figure compares to the EIA\u2019s weekly estimates (interpolated) of 10.429 mmbd, a figure that was 150,000 b\/d lower.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/11894.jpg\" width=\"752\" height=\"452\" alt=\"Monthly US Crude Production \" class=\"aligncenter size-full\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The primary cause of the drop in production was disruptions in the U.S. Gulf Coast due to hurricane activity. USG production dropped by 453,000 b\/d from July, and Texas output fell 49,000 b\/d, while Louisiana fell by 17,000 b\/d.<\/p>\n<p>Rebounds were largest in North Dakota (126,000 b\/d) and New Mexico (27,000). Given the huge reduction in May and this reduction in August, production dropped by 1.806 mmb\/d over the past 12 months. This number only includes crude oil. Other supplies (liquids) that are part of the petroleum supply rose by 130,000 b\/d from a year ago.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/11895.jpg\" width=\"818\" height=\"452\" alt=\"US Crude Oil Production Growth \" class=\"aligncenter size-full\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/11896.jpg\" width=\"786\" height=\"518\" alt=\"Year Over Year Production Gains\" class=\"aligncenter size-full\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The EIA-914 Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) figure was 150,000 barrels per day higher than the weekly data reported by EIA in the Weekly Petroleum Supply Report (WPSR).<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/11897.jpg\" width=\"645\" height=\"748\" class=\"aligncenter size-full\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The 914 figure was about 290,000 lower than the 10.870 mmbd estimate for that month in the October Short-Term Outlook. This difference is enough and certain to trigger a \u201crebenchmarking\u201d to EIA\u2019s model in future production levels at this time. Still, since it was due to estimated hurricane impacts, the model may not be rebenchmarked.<\/p>\n<div class='mailmunch-forms-widget-957098'><\/div>\n<p>The EIA is projecting that 2020 production will exit the year at 11.020 mmbd. And for 2021, it projects an exit at 11.310 mmbd. These rebounds from the August level are in doubt unless oil prices rise through the forecast horizon, but the demand rebound appears to have stalled, and crude stocks are 54 million higher than a year ago.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/11898.jpg\" width=\"752\" height=\"452\" alt=\"Actual and Forecast Crude Production \" class=\"aligncenter size-full\" \/><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"color: #003380; font-size: 20px;\">Conclusions<\/h2>\n<p>EIA\u2019s model and real-time estimates for hurricane impacts have poor during this period of massive price changes. Therefore, their forecasts for 2020 and 2021 exit levels are suspect, though the 2020 exit is not too much higher than the latest weekly estimate (11.1 mmbd).<\/p>\n<p>A major uncertainty is how producers will behave in 2021, given <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/club.ino.com\/trend\/?s=CL.Z20&mktcode=TradersBlogTA\">oil price<\/a><\/strong> uncertainties and their diminished cashflow since the pandemic crashed prices. The other major uncertainty is how long demand will suffer from the pandemic and affect oil prices. The latest lockdowns announced for Germany and France are not encouraging.<\/p>\n<p>Check back to see my next post!<\/p>\n<p>Best,<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/meet-ino-com-contributor-robert-boslego\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Robert Boslego<\/a><br \/>\nINO.com Contributor - Energies<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 12px; font-style: italic;\">Disclosure: This contributor does not own any stocks mentioned in this article. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.<\/span><\/p>\n<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on the_content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Energy Information Administration reported that August crude oil production fell by 401,000 barrels per day, averaging 10.579 mmbd. This follows a 538,000 b\/d rise in July and a 2 million barrel per day collapse in May. The August 914 figure compares to the EIA\u2019s weekly estimates (interpolated) of 10.429 mmbd, a figure that was [&hellip;]<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":52258,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6920],"tags":[28,8457,7224,9075,9432],"class_list":["post-53165","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ino-com-contributors","tag-crude-oil","tag-robert-boslego","tag-the-energy-information-administration-eia","tag-u-s-crude-oil-inventories","tag-u-s-crude-oil-production"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.4 (Yoast SEO v23.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>U.S. Crude Production Fell In August - INO.com Trader&#039;s Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The EIA reported that August crude oil production fell by 401,000 barrels per day, averaging 10.579 mmbd follwoing a rise in July.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2020\/11\/u-s-crude-production-fell-in-august\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"U.S. Crude Production Fell In August - 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