{"id":53174,"date":"2020-11-05T10:26:42","date_gmt":"2020-11-05T15:26:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=53174"},"modified":"2020-11-05T10:26:42","modified_gmt":"2020-11-05T15:26:42","slug":"united-states-still-going-bananas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2020\/11\/united-states-still-going-bananas\/","title":{"rendered":"United States Still Going Bananas"},"content":{"rendered":"

You see, it\u2019s not a Trump thing. It\u2019s an\u00a0\u2018America is so hopelessly indebted (as are other developed economies) that they have no choice now\u2019<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0thing.<\/p>\n

However, the election shakes out \u2013 most likely Democrat president and congress, Republican senate \u2013 the stock market is cheering two things in my opinion. It is cheering US dollar compromising fiscal<\/em>\u00a0stimulus (Fed prints, politicians spend) and the coming of more US dollar compromising\u00a0monetary<\/em>\u00a0policy (Fed prints, Fed monetizes bonds AKA debt, Fed screws with any other esoteric tool it can get its hands on in the age of\u00a0MMT<\/del>\u00a0TMM, AKA Total Market Manipulation).<\/p>\n

I have a still profitable position against the Euro that is about to tick un-profitable this morning. That was my hedge against a firming US dollar, which is the anti-market to the US stock market especially, but also to many global markets because I am long US and global stocks. I may have to pull back to hedging stocks (including gold stocks) with high cash levels. So says the ongoing inflationary operation.<\/p>\n

I had projected an A-B-C bear market bounce in Uncle Buck, just to keep the macro honest and put a spook into market bulls. But it appears \u2013 due to the joy breaking out everywhere \u2013 that I will have been wrong about \u2018C\u2019. That\u2019s what this breakdown below support (now short-term resistance) says, anyway.<\/p>\n

\"dxy<\/a><\/p>\n

We are going bananas not because Trump is\/was just another politician when it comes to the modern American tradition of debt-leveraged inflation to disenfranchise the middle and poor and enrich the already spectacularly wealthy. We are going bananas because that\u2019s the only path out of this mess that people in power who want to stay in power will choose. Always.<\/p>\n

They will choose inflation by currency devaluation because it is a neat macro parlor trick that will boost certain desirable asset prices to the degree that the average person will think they are doing the right thing. After all, running a true savings\/investment-based economy featuring Larry Kudlow\u2019s mythical \u201cKing Dollar\u201d would crash the S&P 500, for one.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/a><\/p>\n

Now, the Republican senate will probably stand in the way of some of the Democrats\u2019 plans, like the Green New Deal when that pork wagon tries to roll into town. But they will not stand in the way of the ongoing and massive bailout stimulus aimed straight at the US dollar going one way and enriched asset owners going the other.<\/p>\n

There may be some volatility here in the next few weeks and a market correction could still come about (unfortunately, the unpredictability of Trump\u2019s tantrums will probably drive that, not some guy\u2019s charts) but when it all shakes out and if it shakes out as currently indicated politically, America will still be going bananas because it\u2019s the same tired old game plan Trump was using (even before the Pandemic, as the economy was slowly decelerating and the yield curve steepening in mid-late 2019).<\/p>\n

Sit back, relax, have a banana (smoothy, daiquiri, with your corn flakes or straight up). There are only two ways this story can ultimately end. Either a deflationary whirlpool or ole\u2019 von Mises\u2019 Crack-up-Boom.<\/p>\n

Check back to see my next post!<\/p>\n

Best,
\nGary Tanashian<\/a><\/p>\n

For \u201cbest of breed\u201d top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to\u00a0NFTRH Pre<\/strong>mium<\/strong><\/a>, which includes an in-depth weekly\u00a0market report<\/strong>, detailed interim\u00a0market updates<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0NFTRH+\u00a0<\/strong>dynamic updates and chart\/trade setup ideas. You can also keep up to date with actionable public content at\u00a0NFTRH.com<\/a>\u00a0by using the\u00a0email form on the right sidebar<\/strong>. Follow via\u00a0Twitter<\/strong>\u00a0@NFTRHgt<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

You see, it\u2019s not a Trump thing. It\u2019s an\u00a0\u2018America is so hopelessly indebted (as are other developed economies) that they have no choice now\u2019\u00a0thing. However, the election shakes out \u2013 most likely Democrat president and congress, Republican senate \u2013 the stock market is cheering two things in my opinion. It is cheering US dollar compromising […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":31,"featured_media":53176,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6920],"tags":[2195,8524,511,31490,4273,9526,14810],"class_list":["post-53174","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ino-com-contributors","tag-dollar-index-dx","tag-fed-monetary-policy","tag-federal-reserve","tag-fiscal-stimulus","tag-gary-tanashian","tag-notes-from-the-rabbit-hole-nftrh","tag-sp-500-sp500"],"yoast_head":"\nUnited States Still Going Bananas - INO.com Trader's Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The stock market is cheering two things. 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