{"id":54272,"date":"2021-03-23T13:05:17","date_gmt":"2021-03-23T17:05:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=54272"},"modified":"2021-03-23T13:05:17","modified_gmt":"2021-03-23T17:05:17","slug":"did-the-fed-just-send-a-message","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/did-the-fed-just-send-a-message\/","title":{"rendered":"Did The Fed Just Send A Message?"},"content":{"rendered":"

In case you missed it, last Friday<\/a>, the Federal Reserve agreed to let a year-long suspension of capital requirements for big banks that allowed them to exclude Treasury securities and deposits held at the Fed from their supplementary leverage ratio expire at the end of the month. <\/p>\n

While the subject of bank capital ratios usually puts some people to sleep, the Fed decision could have very real consequences for the financial markets and the nascent economic rebound at large. It also seems to diverge from the Fed\u2019s own stated and oft-repeated monetary policies.<\/p>\n

Then again, the Fed may have just sent a subtle message that its low-rate stance is about to change.<\/p>\n

As the New York Times explained, the intention of relaxing the banks\u2019 capital requirements last year at the outset of the pandemic-induced economic lockdown \u201cwas to make it easier for financial institutions to absorb government bonds and reserves and still continue lending. Otherwise, banks might have stopped such activities to avoid increasing their assets and hitting the leverage cap, which would mean raising capital. But it also lowered bank capital requirements, which drew criticism.\u201d<\/p>\n

At a practical level, Friday\u2019s decision may add further fuel to the fire that is driving up bond yields by discouraging banks from buying Treasury securities, which would seem to run counter to the Fed\u2019s low-interest-rate policy. The Fed, of course, is buying trillions of dollars of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities, which it has stated it has no intention of stopping. Yet, it saw fit to make a move that could have the effect of driving the banks \u2013 also big buyers of government securities \u2013 out of the market. So why did the Fed do this?<\/p>\n

On one side of the debate over the SLR extension were the banks, who argued that the reimposition of tougher capital requirements might lead them to pull back on Treasury bond purchases, which could raise interest rates, but also \u201champer their ability to extend credit to companies and consumers, and in some cases force them to turn away deposits,\u201d the Financial Times said. <\/p>\n

\u201cWith reserves expected to keep growing rapidly, banks might end up having to limit their activity in some financial markets or even lend less,\u201d the Wall Street Journal\u2019s Greg Ip wrote. \u201cThis outcome would obviously run counter to the Fed\u2019s monetary policy goals of keeping interest rates low and credit flowing to get the economy back to full employment.\u201d<\/p>\n

Moreover, he added, \u201cWith that capital requirement back in place, the Fed achieves nothing toward making the financial system safer while potentially raising headwinds to its other goal: stoking an economic recovery with easy credit conditions.\u201d<\/p>\n

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On the other side\u2014which proved to be the winning one\u2014were liberal Democrats in Congress, who decried the idea of extending relaxed capital requirements for banks even as they\u2019ve resumed stock buybacks and dividend payments to their shareholders.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe banks\u2019 requests for an extension of this relief appear to be an attempt to use the pandemic as an excuse to weaken one of the most important post-crisis regulatory reforms,\u201d Sen. Sherrod Brown, the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, and the banking industry\u2019s long-time nemesis, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, wrote last month in a letter to bank regulators, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell. \u201cTo the extent there are concerns about banks\u2019 ability to accept customer deposits and absorb reserves due to leverage requirements, regulators should suspend bank capital distributions.\u201d In other words, if you want capital relief, you can\u2019t pay dividends, too. <\/p>\n

In its decision not to extend the relaxed SLR requirements, the Fed did say that it would seek a permanent fix to the issue.<\/p>\n

After resuming dividend payments and buybacks \u2013 with the Fed\u2019s approval \u2013 reporting strong earnings and starting to release bad-debt reserves, the banks\u2019 argument that they still need capital relief does seem a bit of a stretch. The fact is that the economic impact of the pandemic \u2013 thankfully \u2013 has not been as severe as most experts forecast. The banks had a couple of tough \u2013 but hardly disastrous \u2013 quarters but then quickly rebounded. But that\u2019s almost beside the point.<\/p>\n

The fact remains that the Fed continues to base its monetary policy on a disaster scenario that has not materialized \u2013 which the Fed and the government stimulus measures should rightfully take a victory lap for \u2013 and it reiterated at this month\u2019s meeting that that policy will remain in effect for another two years. Yet, at the same time, it saw fit to end the easing of a capital requirement for banks that is part of that policy. Following its own logic, the Fed should have extended the suspension, yet it took the opposite tack.<\/p>\n

Or was it the Fed\u2019s way of sending a signal that it\u2019s okay with higher rates? Stay tuned.<\/p>\n

Visit back to read my next article! <\/p>\n

George Yacik<\/a>
\nINO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates<\/p>\n

Disclosure: This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In case you missed it, last Friday, the Federal Reserve agreed to let a year-long suspension of capital requirements for big banks that allowed them to exclude Treasury securities and deposits held at the Fed from their supplementary leverage ratio expire at the end of the month. 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