{"id":54371,"date":"2021-03-31T11:32:09","date_gmt":"2021-03-31T15:32:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=54371"},"modified":"2021-04-26T12:54:39","modified_gmt":"2021-04-26T16:54:39","slug":"gold-what-a-long-and-not-so-strange-trip","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/gold-what-a-long-and-not-so-strange-trip\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold: What A Long And Not So Strange Trip"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Gold Miner correction was well earned, but it was not a bubble.<\/p>\n

Even today there is some pablum out there talking about how if inflation is good for gold it is especially good for gold miners. I will simply repeat once again that if gold usually does not benefit fundamentally by cyclical inflation (i.e. inflation promoted for and currently working toward economic goals) the gold miners never do, unless they rise against their preferred fundamentals as they did during two separate phases in the last bull market, which were justly resolved with crashes.<\/p>\n

Here are a couple charts we used in\u00a0NFTRH 648<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0in a segment written to set the record straight. We have also used these charts \u2013 especially the first one \u2013 since the caution flags went up last summer, visually by the first chart and anecdotally by the usual suspects aggressively pumping the unwitting masses.\u00a0Buffett buys a gold stock!<\/strong><\/em><\/a>\u2026 okay, well so much for that. Sentiment became off the charts over-bullish and now, as we prepare for the final act of the correction, it\u2019s the opposite. That\u2019s perfect.<\/p>\n

HUI had far exceeded the Gold\/SPX ratio and so it was very vulnerable from a\u00a0macro<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0fundamental perspective. Why on earth would players want to focus on miners digging a rock out of the ground that was starting to fail in a price ratio to the stock market? They wouldn\u2019t, and since last summer they didn\u2019t.<\/p>\n

\"Gold<\/a><\/p>\n

But from a\u00a0sector<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0fundamental perspective the Gold\/Oil ratio (Oil\/Energy is a primary driver of mining costs) and HUI show that the 2020 rally was nothing like the two bubbles of yesteryear, when not only did HUI hit danger signals\u00a0(!)<\/strong>\u00a0noted above by a macro fundamental indicator, it also made two separate bubbles vs. this sector fundamental. This time? Nope, no bubble here.<\/p>\n

\"Gold<\/a><\/p>\n

From a technical standpoint, all Huey has done is what we expected since 2019, which was to make a bear market correction with a \u2018C\u2019 leg up to 375. Well\u2026 check.<\/p>\n

All it has done since hitting the target is pull back as it should have. The index never was going to just keep on chugging through that thick resistance zone without a reaction of some kind.<\/p>\n

I originally labeled it an upward A-B-C\u00a0\u201cbear market\u201d<\/em>\u00a0correction back in 2019 because there was a long way to go before 375 would be approached, so no need to worry about definitions with a tradable rally to come either way.<\/p>\n

Since then, and pending the current correction we\u2019ve established target #2 around 500 with the prospect of this being a cyclical bull market. If that is correct, ladies and gentlemen allow me to introduce you to the first real gut check of the bull market.<\/p>\n

\"HUI<\/a><\/p>\n

Of course, maybe 375 was it, as good as it gets as originally anticipated. A lot will depend on the prospects for continued cyclical inflation vs. a fundamentally preferred deflationary backdrop for the miners. The two bubbles (ended 2008 & 2011) came against inflationary backdrops. When the next rally comes \u2013 and it will \u2013 you will know to sell the hell out of the miners if they ramp up with inflation. You will also know to tune out the promoters because they\u2019ll be promoting you right into the next crash (ref. Q4 2008 and the terrible decline in 2012-2013).<\/p>\n

If on the other hand, 77% of the public<\/a> is wrong about inflation* or if the inflation morphs to a stagflation, then the fundamental prospects will improve if the macro swings disinflationary or deflationary and be open to new, possibly bullish analysis if the all-too-rare Stag comes about and starts to wreck economies.<\/p>\n

If we are lucky enough to get a clear and final capitulation buyers will want to think ahead to the nature of the next rally\u2019s underpinnings and act accordingly.<\/p>\n

* Without making a prediction about what will happen, let\u2019s note that the public will always be huddled on one side of the boat when important macro turns do come about.<\/em><\/p>\n

Check back to see my next post!<\/p>\n

Best,
\nGary Tanashian<\/a><\/p>\n

For \u201cbest of breed\u201d top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to\u00a0NFTRH Pre<\/strong>mium<\/strong><\/a>, which includes an in-depth weekly\u00a0market report<\/strong>, detailed interim\u00a0market updates<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0NFTRH+\u00a0<\/strong>dynamic updates and chart\/trade setup ideas. You can also keep up to date with actionable public content at\u00a0NFTRH.com<\/a>\u00a0by using the\u00a0email form on the right sidebar<\/strong>. Follow via\u00a0Twitter<\/strong>\u00a0@NFTRHgt<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Gold Miner correction was well earned, but it was not a bubble. Even today there is some pablum out there talking about how if inflation is good for gold it is especially good for gold miners. I will simply repeat once again that if gold usually does not benefit fundamentally by cyclical inflation (i.e. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":31,"featured_media":54375,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6920],"tags":[3438,4273,23,15598,2567,4258,1750,9526],"class_list":["post-54371","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ino-com-contributors","tag-chart-analysis","tag-gary-tanashian","tag-gold","tag-gold-xauusdo","tag-gold-analysis","tag-gold-miners","tag-inflation","tag-notes-from-the-rabbit-hole-nftrh"],"yoast_head":"\nGold: What A Long And Not So Strange Trip - INO.com Trader's Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Even today there is some pablum out there talking about how if inflation is good for gold it is especially good for gold miners.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/gold-what-a-long-and-not-so-strange-trip\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Gold: What A Long And Not So Strange Trip - INO.com Trader's Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Even today there is some pablum out there talking about how if inflation is good for gold it is especially good for gold miners.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/gold-what-a-long-and-not-so-strange-trip\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"INO.com Trader's Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/inocom\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-03-31T15:32:09+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-04-26T16:54:39+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/goldspx-1.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"628\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Gary Tanashian\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Gary Tanashian\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/gold-what-a-long-and-not-so-strange-trip\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/gold-what-a-long-and-not-so-strange-trip\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Gary Tanashian\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/767240b088a4ec9cf7d79fa609674991\"},\"headline\":\"Gold: What A Long And Not So Strange Trip\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-03-31T15:32:09+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-04-26T16:54:39+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/gold-what-a-long-and-not-so-strange-trip\/\"},\"wordCount\":744,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/gold-what-a-long-and-not-so-strange-trip\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/goldspx-1.png\",\"keywords\":[\"chart analysis\",\"Gary Tanashian\",\"Gold\",\"Gold (XAUUSDO)\",\"Gold analysis\",\"gold miner's\",\"inflation\",\"Notes From The Rabbit Hole (NFTRH)\"],\"articleSection\":[\"INO.com Contributors\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/gold-what-a-long-and-not-so-strange-trip\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/gold-what-a-long-and-not-so-strange-trip\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/gold-what-a-long-and-not-so-strange-trip\/\",\"name\":\"Gold: What A Long And Not So Strange Trip - INO.com Trader's Blog\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/gold-what-a-long-and-not-so-strange-trip\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/gold-what-a-long-and-not-so-strange-trip\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/goldspx-1.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-03-31T15:32:09+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-04-26T16:54:39+00:00\",\"description\":\"Even today there is some pablum out there talking about how if inflation is good for gold it is especially good for gold miners.\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/gold-what-a-long-and-not-so-strange-trip\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/gold-what-a-long-and-not-so-strange-trip\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/goldspx-1.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/goldspx-1.png\",\"width\":1200,\"height\":628,\"caption\":\"Gold and SPX Chart\"},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/\",\"name\":\"INO.com Trader's Blog\",\"description\":\"Expert Charts, Trading Tips and Technical Analysis from INO.com\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#organization\",\"name\":\"INO.com Trader's Blog\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/inologo-400.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/inologo-400.jpg\",\"width\":400,\"height\":472,\"caption\":\"INO.com Trader's Blog\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/inocom\/\",\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company-beta\/1056449\/\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/767240b088a4ec9cf7d79fa609674991\",\"name\":\"Gary Tanashian\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/c779c150dcd68c10e3a5ea0eb0997d91?s=96&d=identicon&r=pg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/c779c150dcd68c10e3a5ea0eb0997d91?s=96&d=identicon&r=pg\",\"caption\":\"Gary Tanashian\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/nftrh.com\/\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/author\/gary-tanashian\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Gold: What A Long And Not So Strange Trip - INO.com Trader's Blog","description":"Even today there is some pablum out there talking about how if inflation is good for gold it is especially good for gold miners.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/gold-what-a-long-and-not-so-strange-trip\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Gold: What A Long And Not So Strange Trip - INO.com Trader's Blog","og_description":"Even today there is some pablum out there talking about how if inflation is good for gold it is especially good for gold miners.","og_url":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/gold-what-a-long-and-not-so-strange-trip\/","og_site_name":"INO.com Trader's Blog","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/inocom\/","article_published_time":"2021-03-31T15:32:09+00:00","article_modified_time":"2021-04-26T16:54:39+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1200,"height":628,"url":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/goldspx-1.png","type":"image\/png"}],"author":"Gary Tanashian","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Gary Tanashian","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/gold-what-a-long-and-not-so-strange-trip\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/gold-what-a-long-and-not-so-strange-trip\/"},"author":{"name":"Gary Tanashian","@id":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/767240b088a4ec9cf7d79fa609674991"},"headline":"Gold: What A Long And Not So Strange Trip","datePublished":"2021-03-31T15:32:09+00:00","dateModified":"2021-04-26T16:54:39+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/gold-what-a-long-and-not-so-strange-trip\/"},"wordCount":744,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/gold-what-a-long-and-not-so-strange-trip\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/goldspx-1.png","keywords":["chart analysis","Gary Tanashian","Gold","Gold (XAUUSDO)","Gold analysis","gold miner's","inflation","Notes From The Rabbit Hole (NFTRH)"],"articleSection":["INO.com Contributors"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/gold-what-a-long-and-not-so-strange-trip\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/gold-what-a-long-and-not-so-strange-trip\/","url":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/gold-what-a-long-and-not-so-strange-trip\/","name":"Gold: What A Long And Not So Strange Trip - INO.com Trader's Blog","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/gold-what-a-long-and-not-so-strange-trip\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/gold-what-a-long-and-not-so-strange-trip\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/goldspx-1.png","datePublished":"2021-03-31T15:32:09+00:00","dateModified":"2021-04-26T16:54:39+00:00","description":"Even today there is some pablum out there talking about how if inflation is good for gold it is especially good for gold miners.","inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/gold-what-a-long-and-not-so-strange-trip\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/gold-what-a-long-and-not-so-strange-trip\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/goldspx-1.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/goldspx-1.png","width":1200,"height":628,"caption":"Gold and SPX Chart"},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/","name":"INO.com Trader's Blog","description":"Expert Charts, Trading Tips and Technical Analysis from INO.com","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#organization","name":"INO.com Trader's Blog","url":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/inologo-400.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/inologo-400.jpg","width":400,"height":472,"caption":"INO.com Trader's Blog"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/inocom\/","https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company-beta\/1056449\/"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/767240b088a4ec9cf7d79fa609674991","name":"Gary Tanashian","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/c779c150dcd68c10e3a5ea0eb0997d91?s=96&d=identicon&r=pg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/c779c150dcd68c10e3a5ea0eb0997d91?s=96&d=identicon&r=pg","caption":"Gary Tanashian"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/nftrh.com\/"],"url":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/author\/gary-tanashian\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54371"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/31"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=54371"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54371\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/54375"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=54371"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=54371"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=54371"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}