{"id":54468,"date":"2021-04-17T11:09:31","date_gmt":"2021-04-17T15:09:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=54468"},"modified":"2021-04-17T11:09:31","modified_gmt":"2021-04-17T15:09:31","slug":"weekly-stock-market-forecast-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2021\/04\/weekly-stock-market-forecast-4\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Stock Market Forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"

This week we have a stock market forecast for the week of 4\/18\/21 from our friend Bo Yoder of the Market Forecasting Academy<\/a>. Be sure to leave a comment and let us know what you think! <\/p>\n

The S&P 500 (SPY)<\/h2>\n

\"SPY<\/p>\n

If you were not clear about how directly the impact of the Fed\u2019s expansion of the money supply affects the S&P 500 (analyzed here using SPY), this daily chart will fix that. <\/p>\n

The market is levitating into what appears to be a \u201cblow-off top,\u201d as it becomes absurdly overbought. <\/p>\n

But don\u2019t fall into the trap\u2026 Expecting this stimulated market to act \u201cnormally\u201d is like expecting somebody who has consumed multiple energy drinks with dinner to be sleepy at 9 pm.<\/p>\n

Both will \u201ccrash\u201d only after the drugs of stimulation leave their system.<\/p>\n

Because this insatiable demand is being caused by inflation fears and the desperate need for institutions to place the gobs of money that have been injected into the system, it doesn\u2019t behave according to historical tendencies. I\u2019ve always laughed at folks who say, \u201cthis time, it is different,\u201d but I have to swallow my discomfort and join their ranks at this time. We have never seen this kind of central bank management of our economy, so the forces ARE truly different this time.<\/p>\n

As long as dramatic increases to the money supply keep being created, we will see these inorganic \u201cmelt-ups.\u201d<\/p>\n

That being said, my instruments show that the buying is real and started to erode slightly as we went into the end of last week<\/a>. I would expect that this bearish pressure is the result of simple profit-taking and don\u2019t have a high odds forecast for the S&P moving forward. I am, however, NOT afraid to miss calling this top, as the levels of bullish momentum that have shown themselves indicate that the top will need quite some time to process before any sustainable correction can form. <\/p>\n

If Monday is a weak one, the odds are high that a retest of the highs will come at some point, and THEN I\u2019ll have a more reliable indication of whether or not a breakout or a reversal is likely to occur. I continue to sit aside and just focus on day-trades in the S&P while I manage open positions.<\/p>\n

Coca-Cola (KO)<\/h2>\n

\"KO<\/p>\n

I am quite frankly astonished that Coca-Cola (KO) didn\u2019t stop out for a loss, with all the melt-up energy in the market indexes.<\/p>\n

This stock is really weak to rally so poorly in the face of a huge move up in the markets. When the markets roll over into correction, I would expect to see the bears come crashing into this stock. If this scenario fails to appear, then we can start to think about taking losses, but for now, I see this as having dodged a bullet and am sticking to the plan!<\/p>\n

Cerner Corporation (CERN)<\/h2>\n

\"CERN<\/p>\n

Cerner Corporation (CERN) was a lower probability\/higher reward entry possibility last week. Unlike KO, which resisted the rally, CERN never stood a chance, and the stops got \u201crun over\u201d in the melt-up.<\/p>\n

I\u2019ll take the loss and be happy losses were correctly cut short as I watch this stock continue to rally.<\/p>\n

Gold (GLD)<\/h2>\n

\"GLD<\/p>\n

Any negative emotions generated by CERN are quickly wiped out when you look at the daily chart of Gold (analyzed here using GLD). Inflation fears and the news that the Chinese are aggressively accumulating bullion launched prices higher and blatantly confirmed the recent bullish reversal and a sustainable bottom (as a forecast, of course)!<\/p>\n

So, now that it\u2019s \u201cgame on\u201d for gold, we will see how emotional and overheated the buying gets. I will continue to take measurements of supply and demand as this new uptrend unfolds. I hope and expect that this will be a long-term position, taken at a very elegant point.<\/p>\n

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN)<\/h2>\n

\"REGN<\/p>\n

For those of you who are new to active trading, I want you to really look carefully at this week's column. I don\u2019t write these to be sexy and \u201caction-filled\u201d; I write them so that you can see the truth that:<\/p>\n