{"id":55135,"date":"2021-08-05T10:07:39","date_gmt":"2021-08-05T14:07:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=55135"},"modified":"2021-08-05T10:07:39","modified_gmt":"2021-08-05T14:07:39","slug":"signs-of-inflationary-reflation-running-low-on-gas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2021\/08\/signs-of-inflationary-reflation-running-low-on-gas\/","title":{"rendered":"Signs Of Inflationary Reflation Running Low On Gas"},"content":{"rendered":"

The summer (inflation) cooldown continues\u2026<\/p>\n

We anticipated it in\u00a0NFTRH<\/a>\u00a0well ahead of time using the (monthly 30yr yield) Continuum as a visual guide. The idea was that the inflation uproar of Q1\u2026<\/p>\n

\"Inflation<\/p>\n

\u2026needed to be tamped down, preferably to a roughly symmetrical right side shoulder to the one on the left side of a would-be inverted H&S.<\/p>\n

\"Inflation<\/a><\/p>\n

While the macro is still in that process, other macro signals are also in decline along with the right side shoulder above. Let\u2019s dial in and look at a few using daily charts. We took a look at\u00a0Copper\/Gold in the previous post<\/a>. Let\u2019s look at some other signals flashing during the summer cool down.<\/p>\n

The\u00a0yield curve<\/strong>\u00a0had been steepening under inflationary pressure and now it is flattening due to dis-inflation or at least a moderation of that pressure. When it steepens again folks, there is no assurance whatsoever that the steepener will be inflation-driven as before. It\u2019s important to remember that\u00a0inflation or deflation can drive a curve steepener<\/strong>\u00a0(with very different implications, obviously).<\/p>\n

\"Inflation<\/a><\/p>\n

Credit spreads<\/strong>\u00a0(e.g. junk\/investment grade shown here) are bailing out of the speculative mindset driven by\u2026 oh yeah, the Fed\u2019s inflationary operations of 2020.<\/p>\n

\"Inflation:<\/a><\/p>\n

Inflation expectations<\/strong>\u00a0are certainly not inspiring at the moment.<\/p>\n

\"inflation<\/a><\/p>\n

My personal Canadian credit spread (of sorts), the speculative\u00a0TSX-V vs. the senior TSX<\/strong>\u00a0abdicated the inflationary view about the same time the yield curve (above) did. It is and has been a negative macro warning on the fly.<\/p>\n

\"cndx<\/a><\/p>\n

Finally, the daddy of all indicators (well, along with the Continuum) in my world, the Gold\/Silver ratio has been flashing a potential base from which it could turn up. Let\u2019s flip it over to its Silver\/Gold ratio version and see a picture that could turn nasty. If it does and the US dollar regains its composure after the roads & bridges (etc.) bailout last week the macro could abort not only the cyclical inflation, it could get flat out nasty.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

I am not presenting this stuff to be some kind of doom-saying blogger. I am presenting it because whether you subscribe to\u00a0NFTRH<\/a>\u00a0or not, if you visit\u00a0this website<\/a>\u00a0you see presented some of what\u00a0NFTRH<\/a>\u00a0works on consistently. At important junctures like this I think it is appropriate to have the site be of value to those who are not one-way casino patrons trying to always make coin.<\/p>\n

The above danger signals may also act as levers. After all, when beginning the summer cool down thesis, we presented it as just that, a cool down, a temporary way station from the inflationary hysteria. These levers could jerk the Fed out of its stance of fretting audibly about inflation (that was soooo July) and into a new inflationary production mode. We just don\u2019t know.<\/p>\n

The Fed needs permission, after all. The Vampire needs to be invited into your (macro) house. There\u2019s nothing like a deflating macro to do that trick. Then the question becomes, will they be effective at renewing the inflation in any sort of an orderly way if the massive thing they built in 2020 starts cascading down?<\/p>\n

Thank you for taking the time to hear out this thought experiment.<\/p>\n

Best,
\nGary Tanashian<\/a><\/p>\n

For \u201cbest of breed\u201d top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to\u00a0NFTRH Pre<\/strong>mium<\/strong><\/a>, which includes an in-depth weekly\u00a0market report<\/strong>, detailed\u00a0market updates<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0NFTRH+\u00a0<\/strong>dynamic updates and chart\/trade setup ideas. Subscribe by\u00a0PayPal<\/strong>\u00a0or\u00a0credit card<\/strong>\u00a0using a button on the right sidebar (if using a mobile device you may need to scroll down). Keep up to date with actionable public content at\u00a0NFTRH.com<\/a>\u00a0by using the\u00a0email form on the right sidebar<\/strong>. Follow via\u00a0Twitter<\/strong>\u00a0@NFTRHgt<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The summer (inflation) cooldown continues\u2026 We anticipated it in\u00a0NFTRH\u00a0well ahead of time using the (monthly 30yr yield) Continuum as a visual guide. The idea was that the inflation uproar of Q1\u2026 \u2026needed to be tamped down, preferably to a roughly symmetrical right side shoulder to the one on the left side of a would-be inverted […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":31,"featured_media":55138,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6920],"tags":[10738,511,4273,1750,9526,31550],"class_list":["post-55135","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ino-com-contributors","tag-30-year-treasury-yield","tag-federal-reserve","tag-gary-tanashian","tag-inflation","tag-notes-from-the-rabbit-hole-nftrh","tag-stagnation"],"yoast_head":"\nSigns Of Inflationary Reflation Running Low On Gas - INO.com Trader's Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The summer inflation cooldown continues, we anticipated it in\u00a0NFTRH\u00a0well ahead of time using the 30 yr yield continuum as a visual guide.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2021\/08\/signs-of-inflationary-reflation-running-low-on-gas\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Signs Of Inflationary Reflation Running Low On Gas - 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