{"id":55202,"date":"2021-08-10T11:21:23","date_gmt":"2021-08-10T15:21:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=55202"},"modified":"2021-08-10T11:21:23","modified_gmt":"2021-08-10T15:21:23","slug":"copper-is-on-the-verge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2021\/08\/copper-is-on-the-verge\/","title":{"rendered":"Copper Is On The Verge"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Almost two years ago, in my previous copper <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2019\/09\/copper-update-compressed-spring-could-snap-back-hard\/\">update<\/a>, I called for a big jump of the metal\u2019s price to an ambitious target of $4.65 in the <a href=\"https:\/\/assets.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/10848.jpg\">quarterly chart<\/a>. I put it below to refresh the memory.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/assets.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/12692.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/12692.jpg\" width=\"1092\" height=\"531\" alt=\"Copper Chart \" class=\"aligncenter size-full\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Firstly, the price collapsed to pierce the double support shown in the chart. Only after that, it quickly rebounded to the upside as it hit the preset target of $4.65 this May. I hope you enjoyed that long rally. <\/p>\n<p>Another model, <a href=\"https:\/\/quotes.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/10085.jpg\">posted<\/a> almost three years ago within an educational <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2018\/10\/copper-on-big-time-frame-charts-0-6-or-6\/\">experiment<\/a> advanced very well, although it did not hit the target yet, as did the pattern shown above. That charting exercise drew a lot of attention and feedback at that time. Moreover, the majority of readers bet on this well-known pattern.<!--more--> <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/assets.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/12693.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/12693.jpg\" width=\"1504\" height=\"792\" alt=\"Copper\" class=\"aligncenter size-full\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>I kept the original annotations of 2018 in the chart for educational purposes as I only adjusted the CD part.<\/p>\n<p>There was a massive sell-off in the market right after this model was posted. The <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/club.ino.com\/trend\/?s=HG.U21&mktcode=TradersBlogTA\">price<\/a><\/strong> was just inches from collapsing through the invalidation trigger below $1.94. However, the copper survived, as we can see the following V-shape reversal in the chart last year. In this regard, the CD part was set lower to start from $1.97 with a target of $5.41.  <\/p>\n<p>Your 3-year long bet is doing well so far. The price advanced rapidly through the upper barrier of a Triangle (orange); there, it took a break within a minor consolidation as later it just rocketed beyond the confirmation trigger. Copper futures printed the new all-time high at $4.89 this May and then collapsed on profit-taking. Currently, the price is in a minor sideways consolidation between $4.09 and $4.89. The market is possibly accumulating the momentum for a final throw. <\/p>\n<div id=\"polls-499\" class=\"wp-polls\">\n\t<form id=\"polls_form_499\" class=\"wp-polls-form\" action=\"\/blog\/index.php\" method=\"post\">\n\t\t<p style=\"display: none;\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"poll_499_nonce\" name=\"wp-polls-nonce\" value=\"75fecae8f1\" \/><\/p>\n\t\t<p style=\"display: none;\"><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"poll_id\" value=\"499\" \/><\/p>\n\t\t<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Do you think copper futures could hit the target of $5.41?<\/strong><\/p><div id=\"polls-499-ans\" class=\"wp-polls-ans\"><ul class=\"wp-polls-ul\">\n\t\t<li><input type=\"radio\" id=\"poll-answer-1498\" name=\"poll_499\" value=\"1498\" \/> <label for=\"poll-answer-1498\">Yes<\/label><\/li>\n\t\t<li><input type=\"radio\" id=\"poll-answer-1499\" name=\"poll_499\" value=\"1499\" \/> <label for=\"poll-answer-1499\">No<\/label><\/li>\n\t\t<\/ul><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><input type=\"button\" name=\"vote\" value=\"   Vote   \" class=\"Buttons\" onclick=\"poll_vote(499);\" onkeypress=\"poll_result(499);\" \/><\/p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"#ViewPollResults\" onclick=\"poll_result(499); return false;\" onkeypress=\"poll_result(499); return false;\" title=\"View Results Of This Poll\">View Results<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n\t<\/form>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"polls-499-loading\" class=\"wp-polls-loading\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-polls\/images\/loading.gif\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\" alt=\"Loading ...\" title=\"Loading ...\" class=\"wp-polls-image\" \/>&nbsp;Loading ...<\/div>\n\n<p>As long as the metal fluctuates within the large range between $1.25 and $4.65-$4.89, the following structure could emerge.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/assets.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/12694.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/12694.jpg\" width=\"1742\" height=\"771\" alt=\"Copper\" class=\"aligncenter size-full\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The current two-leg move to the upside (green) could be just the large interconnector between two legs to the downside (red). However, it means that the BC part (purple) could build a large complex consolidation. <\/p>\n<p>I can see two possible options in the chart.<\/p>\n<p>The first one implies the completion of green leg 2 as it already reached the minimum target when it retested the top of green leg 1. In this case, the red leg 2 down could already have kicked off. Therefore, it should tag the downside of the huge range at $1.25.<\/p>\n<p>The second option does not change the entire structure as it only leaves room for another move to the upside to $5.36, where the green leg 2 would travel the same distance as the green leg 1. This path accords with the Triangular model shown in the chart above.<\/p>\n<p>The CD part could be postponed for a longer period if this BC part would emerge. For that reason, it is early yet to calculate the target, as we need to make sure that the C point is established.<\/p>\n<p>Let us see the copper market forecast in the table below to check the fundamental background.   <\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/12695.jpg\" width=\"1195\" height=\"858\" alt=\"Copper Forecast\" class=\"aligncenter size-full\" \/><\/p>\n<p><small><center><em>Source: The International Copper Study Group (ICSG)<\/em><\/center><\/small><\/p>\n<p>The table shows that the market balance will drift from the deficit of 604,000 metric tons in 2020 to a moderate surplus of 79,000 metric tons this year and 109,000 metric tons in 2022. The consumption part is considered stable this year compared to the last year with a tangible growth next year. The production forecast shows a robust increase in both 2021 and 2022 amid the current favorable price environment.      <\/p>\n<div id=\"polls-500\" class=\"wp-polls\">\n\t<form id=\"polls_form_500\" class=\"wp-polls-form\" action=\"\/blog\/index.php\" method=\"post\">\n\t\t<p style=\"display: none;\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"poll_500_nonce\" name=\"wp-polls-nonce\" value=\"f411ef7315\" \/><\/p>\n\t\t<p style=\"display: none;\"><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"poll_id\" value=\"500\" \/><\/p>\n\t\t<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Which way will copper futures go?<\/strong><\/p><div id=\"polls-500-ans\" class=\"wp-polls-ans\"><ul class=\"wp-polls-ul\">\n\t\t<li><input type=\"radio\" id=\"poll-answer-1500\" name=\"poll_500\" value=\"1500\" \/> <label for=\"poll-answer-1500\">Down to $1.25<\/label><\/li>\n\t\t<li><input type=\"radio\" id=\"poll-answer-1501\" name=\"poll_500\" value=\"1501\" \/> <label for=\"poll-answer-1501\">First up to $5.36-$5.41, then down to $1.25<\/label><\/li>\n\t\t<li><input type=\"radio\" id=\"poll-answer-1502\" name=\"poll_500\" value=\"1502\" \/> <label for=\"poll-answer-1502\">One way to the upside<\/label><\/li>\n\t\t<\/ul><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><input type=\"button\" name=\"vote\" value=\"   Vote   \" class=\"Buttons\" onclick=\"poll_vote(500);\" onkeypress=\"poll_result(500);\" \/><\/p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"#ViewPollResults\" onclick=\"poll_result(500); return false;\" onkeypress=\"poll_result(500); return false;\" title=\"View Results Of This Poll\">View Results<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n\t<\/form>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"polls-500-loading\" class=\"wp-polls-loading\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-polls\/images\/loading.gif\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\" alt=\"Loading ...\" title=\"Loading ...\" class=\"wp-polls-image\" \/>&nbsp;Loading ...<\/div>\n\n<p>Intelligent trades!<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/meet-aibek-burabayev\/\" title=\"Meet Aibek Burabeyev\">Aibek Burabayev<\/a><br \/>\nINO.com Contributor, Metals<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 12px; font-style: italic;\">Disclosure: This contributor has no positions in any stocks mentioned in this article. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.<\/span><\/p>\n<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on the_content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Almost two years ago, in my previous copper update, I called for a big jump of the metal\u2019s price to an ambitious target of $4.65 in the quarterly chart. I put it below to refresh the memory. Firstly, the price collapsed to pierce the double support shown in the chart. Only after that, it quickly [&hellip;]<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":55205,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6920],"tags":[6922,3438,2082,7074,7073,102],"class_list":["post-55202","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ino-com-contributors","tag-aibek-burabayev","tag-chart-analysis","tag-copper","tag-copper-analysis","tag-copper-futures","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.4 (Yoast SEO v23.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Copper Is On The Verge - INO.com Trader&#039;s Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Copper futures printed the new all-time high at $4.89 this May and then collapsed on profit-taking. 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