{"id":55879,"date":"2021-11-16T08:00:14","date_gmt":"2021-11-16T13:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=55879"},"modified":"2021-11-15T15:04:13","modified_gmt":"2021-11-15T20:04:13","slug":"commodity-prices-hit-7-year-high-amid-new-bull-run","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2021\/11\/commodity-prices-hit-7-year-high-amid-new-bull-run\/","title":{"rendered":"Commodity Prices Hit 7-Year High Amid New Bull Run"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Refinitiv\/CoreCommodity CRB Index (CRB index) is a commodity futures price index. It was well known under the name Thomson Reuters\/Jefferies CRB Index before renaming.  The CRB index is the gauge of the commodities market, which is comprised of 19 items as quoted on the NYMEX, CBOT, LME, CME, and COMEX exchanges within four following groups:<\/p>\n<ul>\n\u2022 Petroleum-based products (based on their importance to global trade, always make up 33% of the weightings)<br \/>\n\u2022 Liquid assets<br \/>\n\u2022 Highly liquid assets<br \/>\n\u2022 Diverse commodities\n<\/ul>\n<p>It includes aluminum, cocoa, coffee, copper, corn, cotton, crude oil, gold, heating oil, lean hogs, live cattle, natural gas, nickel, orange juice, silver, soybeans, sugar, unleaded gas, and wheat.<\/p>\n<p>More than <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2017\/08\/copper-eyes-3-amid-upbeat-chinese-data\/\">four years ago<\/a>, I shared with you a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/8764.jpg\">big map<\/a> of the CRB index with a long-term outlook. (Original chart is below)<!--more--><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/assets.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/12906.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/12906.jpg\" width=\"1227\" height=\"511\" alt=\"LLLL\" class=\"aligncenter size-full\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Back then, I believed that the global commodity prices were just in a joint (corrective phase) within a Falling Wedge pattern between growth cycles highlighted with gray segments. It was not evident that time as tactically, the CRB index was in a downward spiral near the all-time low. <\/p>\n<p>Then I proposed two medium-term options: <\/p>\n<ul>\n1. orange flag with the following red down arrow had shown another drop after a correction <\/p>\n<p>2. the blue up arrow outside of the Falling Wedge pattern had indicated the immediate Bull Run\n<\/ul>\n<p>In <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2018\/06\/commodities-sell-in-may-and-go-away\/\">2018<\/a>, I shared with you an update in the <a href=\"https:\/\/quotes.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/9709.jpg\">weekly chart<\/a> below. <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/assets.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/12907.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/12907.jpg\" width=\"1090\" height=\"467\" alt=\"LLLL\" class=\"aligncenter size-full\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The price emerged within the orange flag pattern of the downside scenario in the first chart above. So, the upside move was eliminated then. This chart structure played out very accurately as the CRB index dropped like a rock hitting further below the preset target of $155 to establish a new all-time low of $101. <\/p>\n<p>Let us fast forward to the present day in the current monthly chart. <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/assets.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/12908.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/12908.jpg\" width=\"1766\" height=\"738\" alt=\"LLLL\" class=\"aligncenter size-full\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The CRB index made a V-shaped reversal right after it had established a new record low of $101. It was nimble to break out of the Falling Wedge pattern (not shown). The impulse of that move was strong as it has effortlessly surpassed a very strong barrier in the area of $200-210 (top of historical consolidations) like a knife through warm butter. <\/p>\n<p>The possible structure of the upcoming Bull Run is not clear yet as we have only the initial move with a very sharp angle. Markets very rarely move all the way up without corrections. This is a traditional market; the chances are high that we could see a pullback at some point, maybe this year. <\/p>\n<p>I copied the structure of the first move up from the left part of the chart. It shows a large complex correction to come to market to accumulate enough power for another rally. The structure could be different this time, although the direction will remain the same to the upside. <\/p>\n<p>The current growth cycle could reach the top of the first Bull Run at $474 to complete the global structure. <\/p>\n<div id=\"polls-529\" class=\"wp-polls\">\n\t<form id=\"polls_form_529\" class=\"wp-polls-form\" action=\"\/blog\/index.php\" method=\"post\">\n\t\t<p style=\"display: none;\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"poll_529_nonce\" name=\"wp-polls-nonce\" value=\"5cff45280e\" \/><\/p>\n\t\t<p style=\"display: none;\"><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"poll_id\" value=\"529\" \/><\/p>\n\t\t<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Do you think the CRB index will hit $474?<\/strong><\/p><div id=\"polls-529-ans\" class=\"wp-polls-ans\"><ul class=\"wp-polls-ul\">\n\t\t<li><input type=\"radio\" id=\"poll-answer-1603\" name=\"poll_529\" value=\"1603\" \/> <label for=\"poll-answer-1603\">Yes<\/label><\/li>\n\t\t<li><input type=\"radio\" id=\"poll-answer-1604\" name=\"poll_529\" value=\"1604\" \/> <label for=\"poll-answer-1604\">No<\/label><\/li>\n\t\t<\/ul><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><input type=\"button\" name=\"vote\" value=\"   Vote   \" class=\"Buttons\" onclick=\"poll_vote(529);\" onkeypress=\"poll_result(529);\" \/><\/p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"#ViewPollResults\" onclick=\"poll_result(529); return false;\" onkeypress=\"poll_result(529); return false;\" title=\"View Results Of This Poll\">View Results<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n\t<\/form>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"polls-529-loading\" class=\"wp-polls-loading\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-polls\/images\/loading.gif\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\" alt=\"Loading ...\" title=\"Loading ...\" class=\"wp-polls-image\" \/>&nbsp;Loading ...<\/div>\n\n<div id=\"polls-530\" class=\"wp-polls\">\n\t<form id=\"polls_form_530\" class=\"wp-polls-form\" action=\"\/blog\/index.php\" method=\"post\">\n\t\t<p style=\"display: none;\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"poll_530_nonce\" name=\"wp-polls-nonce\" value=\"551aedb320\" \/><\/p>\n\t\t<p style=\"display: none;\"><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"poll_id\" value=\"530\" \/><\/p>\n\t\t<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Which reason could ignite the large correction in commodity prices?<\/strong><\/p><div id=\"polls-530-ans\" class=\"wp-polls-ans\"><ul class=\"wp-polls-ul\">\n\t\t<li><input type=\"radio\" id=\"poll-answer-1605\" name=\"poll_530\" value=\"1605\" \/> <label for=\"poll-answer-1605\">Tapering<\/label><\/li>\n\t\t<li><input type=\"radio\" id=\"poll-answer-1606\" name=\"poll_530\" value=\"1606\" \/> <label for=\"poll-answer-1606\">Interest rate hike<\/label><\/li>\n\t\t<li><input type=\"radio\" id=\"poll-answer-1607\" name=\"poll_530\" value=\"1607\" \/> <label for=\"poll-answer-1607\">Recession<\/label><\/li>\n\t\t<li><input type=\"radio\" id=\"poll-answer-1608\" name=\"poll_530\" value=\"1608\" \/> <label for=\"poll-answer-1608\">Pandemics<\/label><\/li>\n\t\t<li><input type=\"radio\" id=\"poll-answer-1609\" name=\"poll_530\" value=\"1609\" \/> <label for=\"poll-answer-1609\">All together<\/label><\/li>\n\t\t<\/ul><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><input type=\"button\" name=\"vote\" value=\"   Vote   \" class=\"Buttons\" onclick=\"poll_vote(530);\" onkeypress=\"poll_result(530);\" \/><\/p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"#ViewPollResults\" onclick=\"poll_result(530); return false;\" onkeypress=\"poll_result(530); return false;\" title=\"View Results Of This Poll\">View Results<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n\t<\/form>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"polls-530-loading\" class=\"wp-polls-loading\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-polls\/images\/loading.gif\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\" alt=\"Loading ...\" title=\"Loading ...\" class=\"wp-polls-image\" \/>&nbsp;Loading ...<\/div>\n\n<p>Please share your thoughts in the comment section below if I missed something.<\/p>\n<p>Intelligent trades!<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/meet-aibek-burabayev\/\" title=\"Meet Aibek Burabeyev\">Aibek Burabayev<\/a><br \/>\nINO.com Contributor, Metals<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 12px; font-style: italic;\">Disclosure: This contributor has no positions in any stocks mentioned in this article. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.<\/span><\/p>\n<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on the_content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Refinitiv\/CoreCommodity CRB Index (CRB index) is a commodity futures price index. It was well known under the name Thomson Reuters\/Jefferies CRB Index before renaming. The CRB index is the gauge of the commodities market, which is comprised of 19 items as quoted on the NYMEX, CBOT, LME, CME, and COMEX exchanges within four following [&hellip;]<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":55882,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6920],"tags":[6922,31622,1481,2994],"class_list":["post-55879","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ino-com-contributors","tag-aibek-burabayev","tag-commodity-futures","tag-crb-index","tag-futures-trading"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.4 (Yoast SEO v23.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Commodity Prices Hit 7-Year High Amid New Bull Run - INO.com Trader&#039;s Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Commodity prices have been on the rise hitting a new 7-year high. 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