{"id":56541,"date":"2022-03-20T07:53:36","date_gmt":"2022-03-20T11:53:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=56541"},"modified":"2022-03-20T07:53:36","modified_gmt":"2022-03-20T11:53:36","slug":"fed-not-hawkish-hellflation-or-liquidation-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2022\/03\/fed-not-hawkish-hellflation-or-liquidation-ahead\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed Not Hawkish: Hellflation Or Liquidation Ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"

Is the Fed trying to blow another, more covert asset bubble?<\/p>\n

[edit]<\/strong>\u00a0With a note that another, less viable option is possible as well. That would be a \u2018just right\u2019 Goldilocks gently disinflationary option similar to the 2012-2019 phase.<\/em><\/p>\n

[edit2]<\/strong>\u00a0A\u00a0subsequent post<\/a>\u00a0notes another reason the Fed may be erring dovish, as the Bank sector negatively diverges long-term yields (30yr has ticked the underside of our target zone of 2.5% to 2.7%, after all) and the yield curve continues to flatten.<\/em><\/p>\n

The asset bubble that almost ended in Q1 2020 was rescued by two main saviors, 1) unsustainable bearish (no, terrorized) sentiment and, even more so, 2) balls out central bank inflation, led by the US Federal Reserve. The resulting bubble leg was in the bag from the moment the dovish Fed made its first headline about asset purchases and rate cuts.<\/p>\n

This latest leg of the asset bubble has been under stress in 2022, as the supposed reflection of\u00a0\u2018good\u2019<\/em>\u00a0inflation, the stock market (SPX), has trended down all year. More recently, commodities and precious metals have gotten dinged as well after spiking upward on the Russia\/Ukraine war, which exacerbated the Fed\u2019s inflation (as manufactured in Q1-Q2 2020) after the inflationary effects on commodity prices were already exacerbated by pandemic-related supply chain issues.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

It is the top panel of the chart above that the Fed would probably prefer not to see make a terminal drop into a bear market. Thus far, the broad US stock market\u2019s intermediate trends have turned down, but the major trends are still up. James Bullard was the lone FOMC member advocating a .5% hike in the Funds rate this week after telegraphing his position<\/a>\u00a0back in February. The rest of them? Well, you can tell by the look in Jerome Powell\u2019s eyes that they are anything but hawkish.<\/p>\n

\"jerome<\/a><\/p>\n

But why? Why, with the 3-month T-Bill yield literally demanding a stronger hawkish stance, did the Fed stand down with a wimpy .25%? The 2yr yield often leads a tardy Fed to eventually get in gear and start a rate hike regimen. But the T-Bill demands instant action. Ben \u2018ZIRP Eternity\u2019 Bernanke gave way to Janet Yellen, who finally ended \u2018Zero Interest Rate Policy\u2019 when the T-Bill yield rose in 2015.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

It is likely that the Fed is watching economic indicators that matter (unlike the alarming and\u00a0backward-looking<\/strong>\u00a0inflation data that the media serve up every week), like the state of rising credit spreads, as described\u00a0in this post<\/a>. Or maybe they see the precarious state of the Copper\/Gold ratio, as noted in this post<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Or maybe they see the massive and constantly growing pile of US debt, as brought to you by the always entertaining\u00a0Debt Clock<\/a>\u00a0(whee, it\u2019s just numbers\u2026 what\u2019s a few more zeros at the end?) with Powell loath to let it unwind just yet, under his watch.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

And so the Continuum dings the lower bound of our target this week.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Where do we go from here?<\/p>\n

Referring to the Continuum chart above, we either go full-frontal von Mises (i.e., inflationary\/stagflationary\/hellflationary crack-up-boom) or we reverse at the limiters (our target has been those very limiters since the inflation began in 2020), which have eased to the 2.5% to 2.7% zone.<\/p>\n

In my opinion, the Fed would absolutely not want a breakout into a more virulent stagflation but fears a reversal and liquidation as well (Fed in a box?). By remaining dovish (relative to the indicators like those on the first chart above), the Fed risks going hellflationary von Mises<\/a> as commodities and resources (this time including, if not led by, gold and silver) flip them the bird for their paltry .25%. But it appears their bigger concerns at the moment are the implications on that debt pile with a bust into the next deflation scare and, secondarily, a bear market in stocks.<\/p>\n

If you love the markets as they are, this is the time to be engaged and not making assumptions or, worse, following the assumptions of so-called experts and opinion influencers. The robo trend out of mid-2020 was rewarding but tedious. Now it is time to get the macro right, go \u2018top-down\u2019 and short of ending up in a Unabomber shack with only canned goods and gold, profit on coming events. That is what NFTRH<\/a> was made for. I don\u2019t have a crystal ball telling me which way the macro will break, but I sure do have educated opinions based on the work done to this point. Said opinions will be refined and focused by the upcoming work. Of particular interest is the Fed itself and the macro questions it must deal with, as noted above.<\/p>\n

Best,
\nGary Tanashian<\/a><\/p>\n

For \u201cbest of breed\u201d top-down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Pre<\/strong>mium<\/strong><\/a>, which includes an in-depth weekly\u00a0market report<\/strong>, detailed\u00a0market updates,<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0NFTRH+\u00a0<\/strong>dynamic updates and chart\/trade setup ideas. Subscribe by\u00a0PayPal<\/strong>\u00a0or\u00a0credit card<\/strong>\u00a0using a button on the right sidebar (if using a mobile device you may need to scroll down). Keep up to date with actionable public content at\u00a0NFTRH.com<\/a>\u00a0by using the\u00a0email form on the right sidebar<\/strong>. Follow via\u00a0Twitter<\/strong>\u00a0@NFTRHgt<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Is the Fed trying to blow another, more covert asset bubble? [edit]\u00a0With a note that another, less viable option is possible as well. That would be a \u2018just right\u2019 Goldilocks gently disinflationary option similar to the 2012-2019 phase. [edit2]\u00a0A\u00a0subsequent post\u00a0notes another reason the Fed may be erring dovish, as the Bank sector negatively diverges long-term […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":31,"featured_media":56229,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6920],"tags":[425,511,4273,1750,9526],"class_list":["post-56541","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ino-com-contributors","tag-fed","tag-federal-reserve","tag-gary-tanashian","tag-inflation","tag-notes-from-the-rabbit-hole-nftrh"],"yoast_head":"\nFed Not Hawkish: Hellflation Or Liquidation Ahead - INO.com Trader's Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"You can tell by the look in Fed Chair Jerome Powell's eyes that they are anything but hawkish at the moment.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2022\/03\/fed-not-hawkish-hellflation-or-liquidation-ahead\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fed Not Hawkish: Hellflation Or Liquidation Ahead - 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