{"id":56747,"date":"2022-04-13T13:05:04","date_gmt":"2022-04-13T17:05:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=56747"},"modified":"2022-04-13T13:05:04","modified_gmt":"2022-04-13T17:05:04","slug":"end-of-the-pandemic-or-the-beginning-of-a-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/end-of-the-pandemic-or-the-beginning-of-a-recession\/","title":{"rendered":"End Of The Pandemic Or The Beginning Of A Recession?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u201cThe following is an excerpt from Tim Snyder\u2019s \u201cWeekly Quick Facts\u201d newsletter. Tim is an accomplished economist with a deep understanding of applied economics in energy. We encourage you to visit <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/broadcast.ino.com\/redirect\/?linkid=5899\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Matador Economics<\/a><\/strong> and learn more about Tim. While there, you can <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/broadcast.ino.com\/redirect\/?linkid=5899\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">sign up<\/a><\/strong> for his completely free Daily Energy Briefs and Weekly Quick Facts newsletters.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>What is it about the truth that scares people?<\/p>\n<p>Gasoline prices this week took a bit of a respite after several weeks of steep climbs. The relief at the pump is palatable and very much appreciated by those on fixed budgets. But the fall from record highs, may not continue if inflation continues to run unchecked. <\/p>\n<p>Diesel prices fell as word of another variant of Covid-19 seems to be making the rounds. The Chinese Government shut in 26 million people this week, sending a signal that demand for the products may falter over the next couple of weeks.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/13243.jpg\" width=\"318\" height=\"443\" alt=\"Gas Prices - Recession\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Are we at the end of the pandemic or the beginning of a recession?<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>On Tuesday of this week, I had the honor of meeting with a class of extremely talented Ag-Economists at Texas Tech University. We had an in-depth discussion. This was Dr. Darren Hudson\u2019s class on Risk Management.<\/p>\n<p>We began the discussion exploring different types of \u201crisk\u201d and the direct and indirect effects from the influences of a pandemic on a fully functioning economy. It took me back to when we first heard about Covid-19.<\/p>\n<p>It was early January 2020, and I heard a brief mention on one of the cable news outlets about an out-of-control virus in China. There was something in the voice of the host, and I made a note of it.<\/p>\n<p>A couple of days later, I wrote, \u201cThere are conflicting signals across the markets this morning, and it appears we are beginning to build momentum to the downside.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>I then wrote, \u201cWe can\u2019t have a miss here, or a BLACK SWAN EVENT, that shakes market support.\u201d Little did I know...<\/p>\n<p>Fast forward two and a quarter years, and we find ourselves in a different predicament. With Tuesday\u2019s CPI numbers showing a year-over-year 8.5% inflation rate, economists are now concerned that the economy is cooling to the point of a recession.<\/p>\n<p>The Federal Reserve must now tow a very thin line here. By not addressing the precarious issues of a recovering economy in 2021, the FED and the Biden Administration, may have put our economic strength in harm\u2019s way.<\/p>\n<p>It has been widely postulated that Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, should have begun to unwind the stimulus back in 2021. But, as you all know, nothing was done until last month.<\/p>\n<p>One can only hope we don\u2019t kill the momentum that we are creating in demand for US commodities like crude oil and natural gas and push the US economy over the edge and into the abyss.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/assets.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/13244.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/13244.jpg\" width=\"804\" height=\"806\" alt=\"Weekly Quick Facts - Recession\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Timothy S. Snyder, Economist<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/broadcast.ino.com\/redirect\/?linkid=5899\">Matador Economics<\/a><\/p>\n<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on the_content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201cThe following is an excerpt from Tim Snyder\u2019s \u201cWeekly Quick Facts\u201d newsletter. Tim is an accomplished economist with a deep understanding of applied economics in energy. We encourage you to visit Matador Economics and learn more about Tim. While there, you can sign up for his completely free Daily Energy Briefs and Weekly Quick Facts [&hellip;]<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":56561,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6920],"tags":[4912,8476,31655,31647],"class_list":["post-56747","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ino-com-contributors","tag-consumer-price-index-cpi","tag-energy-information-administration-eia","tag-gasoline-prices","tag-timothy-s-snyder"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.4 (Yoast SEO v23.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>End Of The Pandemic Or The Beginning Of A Recession? - INO.com Trader&#039;s Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Tuesday\u2019s CPI numbers showed an 8.5% inflation rate, economists are now concerned that the economy is cooling to the point of a recession.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/end-of-the-pandemic-or-the-beginning-of-a-recession\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"End Of The Pandemic Or The Beginning Of A Recession? - INO.com Trader&#039;s Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Tuesday\u2019s CPI numbers showed an 8.5% inflation rate, economists are now concerned that the economy is cooling to the point of a recession.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/end-of-the-pandemic-or-the-beginning-of-a-recession\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"INO.com Trader&#039;s Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/inocom\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-04-13T17:05:04+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/Gas-pumps.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"628\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Tim Snyder\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Tim Snyder\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/end-of-the-pandemic-or-the-beginning-of-a-recession\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/end-of-the-pandemic-or-the-beginning-of-a-recession\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Tim Snyder\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/4b1a159e34dc847744aab736ae71d934\"},\"headline\":\"End Of The Pandemic Or The Beginning Of A Recession?\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-04-13T17:05:04+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-04-13T17:05:04+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/end-of-the-pandemic-or-the-beginning-of-a-recession\/\"},\"wordCount\":496,\"commentCount\":1,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/end-of-the-pandemic-or-the-beginning-of-a-recession\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/Gas-pumps.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Consumer Price Index (CPI)\",\"Energy Information Administration (EIA)\",\"Gasoline Prices\",\"Timothy S. 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A graduate of Texas Tech University, Tim currently collaborates with Texas Tech\u2019s College of Agriculture Sciences and Natural Resources, in the areas of Marketing and Policy. His extensive experience of over 35 years as an Applied Economist has provided a substantial background from which he draws. His current work focus is Oil and Gas, Petroleum, Agriculture, Policy, and the Financial Markets, including both equities and commodities. The purpose of this, is to provide a more refined set of skills for his clients so they can understand the effects of changing economic conditions on consumer-sensitive markets. Tim has been involved in the oil and gas industry since he graduated from Texas Tech. He has worked extensively with ethanol and biodiesel initiatives as fuel additives, and then, in all phases of production, transportation and marketing in the broader complex of petroleum and energy markets. Risk management has also been a major focus for Tim. Helping others understand the effects of recovering energy economy and the influence of macroeconomic factors is his daily charge, as recovery from the pandemic continues. His company, Matador Economics, was founded in September of 2005 and his initial focus was on marketing and business development for energy and agriculture. After the financial crisis of 2008, Tim pivoted his business to focus on the broader spectrum of energy production and policy, distribution and marketing for crude oil and the refined products. Today, he publishes a daily and weekly commentary for subscribers. \u201cMatador Charts Abbreviated\u201d is a quick look at energy commodity prices in chart form for technical analysis, and \u201cEnergy Brief Today\u201d is his \u2019Headline\u201d daily commentary focusing on market moving fundamentals and policy initiatives that are driving energy markets today. Tim also publishes a weekly offering called \u201cWeekly Quick Facts\u201d. This publication offers highlights from the Weekly Petroleum Status Report, US Energy Information Administration\u2019s Weekly Gasoline and Diesel Retail Price Survey and the Baker Hughes Rig Count. The purpose of the weekly summary is to provide subscribers a weekly-ready reference on inventories, production, prices and much more. Tim is currently published in several industry related magazines, online and in the print media. He also currently serves as an Energy Economist and expert guest for several radio programs across Texas and the US. He currently serves as co-host for a daily radio program in West Texas and the Permian Basin. And he has worked with the host on this program for more than 17 years. In 2016, Tim moved to Dallas to be closer to his two sons and their families. While in Dallas, Tim accepted a position with City Bank as an economist, working in business development and currently also works with customers in the mortgage area as well. 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A graduate of Texas Tech University, Tim currently collaborates with Texas Tech\u2019s College of Agriculture Sciences and Natural Resources, in the areas of Marketing and Policy. His extensive experience of over 35 years as an Applied Economist has provided a substantial background from which he draws. His current work focus is Oil and Gas, Petroleum, Agriculture, Policy, and the Financial Markets, including both equities and commodities. The purpose of this, is to provide a more refined set of skills for his clients so they can understand the effects of changing economic conditions on consumer-sensitive markets. Tim has been involved in the oil and gas industry since he graduated from Texas Tech. He has worked extensively with ethanol and biodiesel initiatives as fuel additives, and then, in all phases of production, transportation and marketing in the broader complex of petroleum and energy markets. Risk management has also been a major focus for Tim. Helping others understand the effects of recovering energy economy and the influence of macroeconomic factors is his daily charge, as recovery from the pandemic continues. His company, Matador Economics, was founded in September of 2005 and his initial focus was on marketing and business development for energy and agriculture. After the financial crisis of 2008, Tim pivoted his business to focus on the broader spectrum of energy production and policy, distribution and marketing for crude oil and the refined products. Today, he publishes a daily and weekly commentary for subscribers. \u201cMatador Charts Abbreviated\u201d is a quick look at energy commodity prices in chart form for technical analysis, and \u201cEnergy Brief Today\u201d is his \u2019Headline\u201d daily commentary focusing on market moving fundamentals and policy initiatives that are driving energy markets today. Tim also publishes a weekly offering called \u201cWeekly Quick Facts\u201d. This publication offers highlights from the Weekly Petroleum Status Report, US Energy Information Administration\u2019s Weekly Gasoline and Diesel Retail Price Survey and the Baker Hughes Rig Count. The purpose of the weekly summary is to provide subscribers a weekly-ready reference on inventories, production, prices and much more. Tim is currently published in several industry related magazines, online and in the print media. He also currently serves as an Energy Economist and expert guest for several radio programs across Texas and the US. He currently serves as co-host for a daily radio program in West Texas and the Permian Basin. And he has worked with the host on this program for more than 17 years. In 2016, Tim moved to Dallas to be closer to his two sons and their families. While in Dallas, Tim accepted a position with City Bank as an economist, working in business development and currently also works with customers in the mortgage area as well. This is in addition to his Matador Economics responsibilities. You can reach Tim by phone at (806) 441-7721, on email, tim@matadoreconomics.com or go visit his website at www.matadoreconomics.com and subscribe to his commentaries.","sameAs":["https:\/\/matadoreconomics.com\/"],"url":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/author\/tim-snyder\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56747"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/36"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56747"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56747\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/56561"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56747"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56747"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56747"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}